Pass the Corona ese... Novel Corona aka COVID-19

[where]

They’re turning the frogs gay 

[Fist 666]

17 hours ago, misteraven said:

Going to add a littl

 

 

 

So this doesn't show what you think it does, at all.

 

This is a 12 month span, The first Italian Corona death was on February 21st, less than a month ago. If you'd like to take Italy's death rate (3,405 as of 3/20) times twelve months you get about 41,000. That would put it at number four on that list; Just behind bad diet and bad genetics--not simply being alive and interacting with other people as if everything were normal. 

 

Also, over a 12 month span  of unchecked, unchanged behaviors that number would continue to grow exponentially, not statically--41,000 would be an insanely low estimate. 3,405 in month one starts at zero, month two will start at 3,405, month three at a much higher number, etc. This is why @Europe is beating the staythefuckhome drum so hard, the more we interact, the more those numbers will grow.

 

Quote

Statisticly, and this is a fun one, its a 1:3 virus, meaning that one person get it and pass it on to 3 others, on average. Since it spreads very easily and fast, and you can be a carrier for many days without knowing it... It has exponential growth. Start with 3, multiple by 3= 9 right.

3

9

27

81

243

729

2187

6561

19.683

59049

177147

531441

1.594323

4.782969

14.348907

43.046721

129.140163

387.420489

so 18 steps later more than the US population in total... How many US hospital beds again?

Now this requires unchecked/unchanged behavior, interaction with different people and crowds, etc for those numbers to add up exactly that way, but that is more or less the path of growth we would see. The above numbers relate to number of cases, not fatalities, but fatalities follow the same curve. Italy's death rate for confirmed Covid-19 cases is over 8%. Of course, I am sure there are thousands of unconfirmed and unreported cases, but even if we cut that in half or quarters, that's a serious reckoning. 

 

 

I don't feel like diving into the rest of your post right now, but for the most part I agree that panic and hysteria  has been inflamed by bad reporting and media-as-industry, but down-playing it as hype-without-substance is just plain dangerous. 

 

[abrasivesaint]

3 hours ago, WorldBench said:

The stupidity in this thread is getting worse by the day.

 

I guess some of you believe the Green Lizard people throughout the whole world got 120 Countries to agree to pretend that this is a pandemic and create fake videos of hospitals filled, people dying in streets, and mass burials lol.

 

I don’t know who said that but it certainly isn’t what i think. I’ve said in this thread that i think there has to be outlying factors for why things have gone to hell in Italy. Last i saw, most countries are floating around that 1-3% mortality rate. Italy was at like 9%, that cannot be a coincidence, there has to be other factors. I fully understand how serious this virus can be.
 

Like I stated earlier in the thread i was told this morning at work i could be getting thrown into the lions den come next week, as many hospitals are preparing for a spike this week. I have friends in Boston and they are preparing for the same thing. Surgical rooms are being turned into ICU rooms, other make shift ICU rooms are being made, triage centers are popping up in parking lots.. The situation is no joke. 
 

That said, what also needs to be understood is that this situation where American hospitals are being overwhelmed is different than Italy, currently, not saying that can’t change for the worse.. People are rushing to ERs because they are freaking out because of what they’re being told by the news (see headline below as an example.) I have received this information from a woman that runs an ER department in New Orleans, this isn’t me assuming things. She has said that people calling 911 for coughs and mild conditions are fucking everything up. They’re seeing death tolls and Italy this and that, and 60-70% infected, and holy shit it’s the apocalypse and panicking. Infected doesn‘t mean death. It means you could get a cough, or your lungs could fail, it’s a big spectrum. So far it seems that if you are a healthy young adult, the chances of you being just fine are high. 
 

According to the WHO, 1.35 million die every year in road traffic accidents, about 3700 a day. How many times have you been in a car the last 3 months? 
 

 

According to the Gun Violence Archive, there have been 3100+ deaths due to gun violence in 2020 in America. Thats excluding the 5200+ suicides, bringing the death toll to 8400+..And guns are flying off the shelves during this coronavirus panic. 
 

 

Now let’s get to the fun part, COVID-19. According to the CDC there have been 10.4k+ cases of COVID-19 with 149 deaths. These include confirmed and PRESUMPTIVE cases, which are assumed due to state evidence, but not confirmed by the CDC. These numbers aren’t staggering yet. Not saying they can’t get there, we’re seeing spikes in certain parts of the country, but to date this still hasn’t gotten that crazy. 
 

Only about half of the cases tested in Louisiana have been reported to the CDC. This means half of the people rushing to the ER and clogging up resources do not have the virus.  
 

In New York State there have been over 32k people tested, and only 7102 confirmed by the state. So only about 22% of the people tested actually have the virus, meaning roughly 78% of people rushing to the ER did not, yet. 
 

 

 

And my argument has been it’s because of headlines like this one below that you’ll see on social media or on your favorite media outlet that are driving people into mania. I have had a few friends cite this article already without even knowing where the information came from. Some of them are saying things like they heard young people are getting it now and the virus is getting stronger.

 

Meanwhile, if you actually read the article, It’s 20% of 2500 people that they had info on and only 12% were in the ICU, and there was no information about whether or not those people had underlying health conditions. 

Edited March 20, 2020 by abrasivesaint
78% not 88%, i’m an idiot and havent slept.

[abrasivesaint]

The point to all that is fuck the news right now. Listen to the CDC.
 

If the CDC is telling you to wash your hands and stay in small groups, which they are, do it.
 

This isn’t about “fake news” or some nonsense, it’s about listening to proper authorities on the matter and fuck the news for spouting nothing but impending doom to society. We need some fucking optimism.
 

Somebody could spill their Gatorade on a sample of COVID-19 tomorrow and find out all we need to do to kill the virus is bathe in some Cool Blue and we’ll be right as rain, haha. 

 

Joke at the end to lighten the mood. Chins up ya fucks. Wash ya hands. Party at @Europes house when it’s all over. 

[where]

[KILZ FILLZ]

bootleg Travolta bottom left

[KILZ FILLZ]

11 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said:

The point to all that is fuck the news right now. Listen to the CDC.
 

If the CDC is telling you to wash your hands and stay in small groups, which they are, do it.
 

This isn’t about “fake news” or some nonsense, it’s about listening to proper authorities on the matter and fuck the news for spouting nothing but impending doom to society. We need some fucking optimism.
 

Somebody could spill their Gatorade on a sample of COVID-19 tomorrow and find out all we need to do to kill the virus is bathe in some Cool Blue and we’ll be right as rain, haha. 

 

Joke at the end to lighten the mood. Chins up ya fucks. Wash ya hands. Party at @Europes house when it’s all over. 

It has electrolytes!

[where]

7 minutes ago, KILZ FILLZ said:

bootleg Travolta bottom left

 

[abrasivesaint]

10 minutes ago, KILZ FILLZ said:

It has electrolytes!

I’m saying. I mean the rest of the past 4 years have been something out of Idiocracy why not electrolytes to save us all? 

Edited March 20, 2020 by abrasivesaint

[misteraven]

1 hour ago, Fist 666 said:

This is a 12 month span, The first Italian Corona death was on February 21st, less than a month ago. If you'd like to take Italy's death rate (3,405 as of 3/20) times twelve months you get about 41,000. That would put it at number four on that list; Just behind bad diet and bad genetics--not simply being alive and interacting with other people as if everything were normal. 

Good point and thank you for taking the time to think about this and respond with an answer driven by thought. Its obviously difficult to draw comparison by differing factors, but what I was seeking to do was add context to the numbers. The first death Italy reported was Friday February 22nd. Today marks 27 days later or about a month. 

 

Heart disease killed 69,653 Italians in 2014. That averages out to approximately 5,804 Italians per month or 190.8 Italians per day for that year. Heart disease is largely a preventable death ad being the #1 killer of Italians would be a good topic for them to review and perhaps consider making changes around. But its certainly not something they're panicking about, yet its killed nearly twice as many Italians in the same span as Corona. If we factor in the top 5 things killing Italians, we distance ourselves quite far from the death count of Corona. But as you later go on to mention, the Corona numbers are the worst case numbers and for the last week, due to precautions, they've way flattened their curve and are now trending in such a way to indicate the worst of it is over.

 

Again, I've said this several times... Its not that I dont think this should be taken seriously. Its not that I disagree with the suggestions we should keep some social distance and be extra diligent with hand washing and disinfecting until this resolves itself. I'm merely saying the global hysteria and impact to life and economy and the total consequence of our actions is not at all aligned with the threat.

 

When you consider that arguably, all but the USA have seen the worst of this threat and considering Italy as being the worst of it per capita, how can anyone see the national and global response to this as justified? The USA is finalizing a trillian dollar stimulus package. We saw 20% unemployment over night (according to CNN). Massive supply chain issues and the entire world freaking out. All over something that ultimately will not make the top 10 of what kills people in the nation that has been hardest hit so far.

 

1 hour ago, Fist 666 said:

Also, over a 12 month span  of unchecked, unchanged behaviors that number would continue to grow exponentially, not statically--41,000 would be an insanely low estimate. 3,405 in month one starts at zero, month two will start at 3,405, month three at a much higher number, etc. This is why @Europe is beating the staythefuckhome drum so hard, the more we interact, the more those numbers will grow.

Sure, I agree. We should certainly take precautions to get this virus under control. But we just crushed the global economy and created a chaos of consequences that are going to hurt far more than what this virus had the potential for according the analytics I did for the hardest hit country. Yeah, we've all heard that dru

 

1 hour ago, Fist 666 said:

Now this requires unchecked/unchanged behavior, interaction with different people and crowds, etc for those numbers to add up exactly that way, but that is more or less the path of growth we would see. The above numbers relate to number of cases, not fatalities, but fatalities follow the same curve. Italy's death rate for confirmed Covid-19 cases is over 8%. Of course, I am sure there are thousands of unconfirmed and unreported cases, but even if we cut that in half or quarters, that's a serious reckoning. 

The death rate is an average based upon reporting and accurate testing. The number of deaths Is accurate because well, we have dead bodies being tallied up. The number of infected is an estimate because even the countries testing most efficiently can only test a fraction of their population at a time. Plus the result is only accurate until that moment of testing. Anyone can test negative and become infected any number of ways by another individual or by picking it up when going about their lives. Very likely the infection rate could be far higher, which in turn brings the death rate down proportionately. But disregarding that for a moment, we're talking about a country that has been criticized for reacting poorly. A country that just about leads the world in a demographic that skews very old as a whole. A country that has a cultural propensity towards extended families living together, as well a cultural propensity to hug and kiss each other in greeting. Its also a country that has an above average demographic of tobacco smokers, which is the cheery on top during a moment when a virus is circulating that specifically affects cardio vascular and pulmonary systems. On top of all else, you have socialized health care, meaning the state can turn you away at their discretion and simply lack the number of hospitals and hospital beds per capita, as well as advanced treatments and supporting technology that a country like the USA possesses.

 

All of that points to a conclusion that they're going to get hit harder than most. But again using them as an example, they haven't been hit all that hard if we start adding content and evaluating what other threats exist that take like during normal times.

 

1 hour ago, Fist 666 said:

I don't feel like diving into the rest of your post right now, but for the most part I agree that panic and hysteria  has been inflamed by bad reporting and media-as-industry, but down-playing it as hype-without-substance is just plain dangerous. 

I agree with this completely. And again, I'm not suggesting we don't take some time and keep a distance from each other for a bit. I think we should certainly wash our hands more often and not just while this thing is going on. I think we could have implemented all of these protocols without crushing the global economy and freaking people out to the degree that we have seen. People are freakin sacred man and the pain we'll feel by the way we've all conducted ourselves, regardless of who is to blame, is going to hit far harder than the worst that this virus is capable of.

[misteraven]

2 hours ago, abrasivesaint said:

I don’t know who said that but it certainly isn’t what i think. I’ve said in this thread that i think there has to be outlying factors for why things have gone to hell in Italy. Last i saw, most countries are floating around that 1-3% mortality rate. Italy was at like 9%, that cannot be a coincidence, there has to be other factors. I fully understand how serious this virus can be.

Yep, I've taken a stab at explaining that. Welcome anyone that wants to contribute to the exploration of why that might be by supplying a logical argument or counter point.

 

2 hours ago, abrasivesaint said:

Like I stated earlier in the thread i was told this morning at work i could be getting thrown into the lions den come next week, as many hospitals are preparing for a spike this week. I have friends in Boston and they are preparing for the same thing. Surgical rooms are being turned into ICU rooms, other make shift ICU rooms are being made, triage centers are popping up in parking lots.. The situation is no joke. 

I'm sure this is likely qualified. Its a shit ton of resources and us being among the last nation to be hit, there's plenty of data to look at. Likewise, at this point the hysteria is ramped up to such a degree that everyone is feeling pressure to not be "that guy" and called out by the arm chair quarterbacks that will clog the airwaves for weeks after this is all over. Its certainly some nasty stuff and I hoep nobody is misunderstanding my tone into beliving I think otherwise. But at the same time, we need reasonable and well considered responses to threats or not only does it spin out of control, but it ends up where the collateral damage far exceeds that of the actual threat.

 

You've made a lot of other great points, and nothing more to add to them.

[Fist 666]

Regarding exponential understanding, I would recommend everyone watch this to help understand how and why these numbers matter.

 

[KILZ FILLZ]

went to Walmart to exchange a car battery this morning (got the wrong size) and was able to get a good look at what everyone was filling their shopping cars with. Soda, junk food and toilet paper. 
 

 

 

[One Man Banned]

1 hour ago, Fist 666 said:

Regarding exponential understanding, I would recommend everyone watch this to help understand how and why these numbers matter.

 

I don't have to watch that as I get the concept already, but how many Americans truly do?  They don't teach hygiene, sanitaiton, or germ prevention in school too much.  Also, I know plenty of people who think pennies are worthless or who don't bother to return the bottle/can they paid a deposit on to get it back.  You think the gen public is going to get exponential growth? 

[Fist 666]

@One Man Banned that's my point. It is an inherently unnatural concept for the human mind to grasp, and I know most in here haven't studied maths past high school. BUT The phrase is common place in this news cycle and is essential to understanding why and how this thing is growing.

 

Math has no bias and no fucks to give about any of you, it simply is.

[Joker]

41 minutes ago, One Man Banned said:

They don't teach hygiene, sanitaiton, or germ prevention in school too much.  

Personal opinion, but hygiene, human sanitation, and germ prevention should be taught at home. It's a parent's job to teach their kids to have proper hygiene, know where to defecate/urinate, and how to prevent the spread of germs. The idea of leaving that up to teachers seems really odd to me. 

[One Man Banned]

22 minutes ago, Joker said:

Personal opinion, but hygiene, human sanitation, and germ prevention should be taught at home. It's a parent's job to teach their kids to have proper hygiene, know where to defecate/urinate, and how to prevent the spread of germs. The idea of leaving that up to teachers seems really odd to me. 

Agreed.  But the fact that adults cough/sneeze into their hands and then touch things tells us that it's not taught at home, or in the least, not equally.  Same with simple concepts like cross contamination.

[misteraven]

32 minutes ago, Joker said:

Personal opinion, but hygiene, human sanitation, and germ prevention should be taught at home. It's a parent's job to teach their kids to have proper hygiene, know where to defecate/urinate, and how to prevent the spread of germs. The idea of leaving that up to teachers seems really odd to me. 

Great point / observation. Though the follow up from @One Man Bannedis also correct IMO, I don't think this is something a teacher should be tasked with. Even if public schools are essentially treated as a baby sitting service for the most part.

[where]

5 hours ago, where said:

They’re turning the frogs gay 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/10/alex-jones-infowars-drunk-driving-arrest

Vile even the gods got touched

(Raekwon voice)

[morton]

If it is the job of parents and parents alone to teach their children how to be funcional human beings then those born to parents less functional are without probable opportunity to improve.

 

How to wash your hands is pretty low on the ladder but having had some friends who were raised by mentally ill or addicted parents it is really shocking how much can be overlooked.

 

Given the amount of time the teachers seam to waste subjects almost entirely worthless I am not against a general life skills curriculum being looked at, similar to home economics, how to cook, change a tire, oil and battery, build a birdhouse, balance a checkbook and all that kind of shit, and sure understand sanitation and food safety.   What helps a kids self esteem more, telling them how fucking special they are or giving them something that they can actually accomplish and benefit from?

[where]

2 minutes ago, morton said:

a general life skills curriculum being looked at, similar to home economics, how to cook, change a tire, oil and battery, build a birdhouse, balance a checkbook and all that kind of shit, and sure understand sanitation and food safety.   

 

[misteraven]

3 minutes ago, morton said:

If it is the job of parents and parents alone to teach their children how to be funcional human beings then those born to parents less functional are without probable opportunity to improve.

 

How to wash your hands is pretty low on the ladder but having had some friends who were raised by mentally ill or addicted parents it is really shocking how much can be overlooked.

 

Given the amount of time the teachers seam to waste subjects almost entirely worthless I am not against a general life skills curriculum being looked at, similar to home economics, how to cook, change a tire, oil and battery, build a birdhouse, balance a checkbook and all that kind of shit, and sure understand sanitation and food safety.   What helps a kids self esteem more, telling them how fucking special they are or giving them something that they can actually accomplish and benefit from?

Certainly a good point. I'd prefer to see basic economics and its real world applications being something mandatory before graduating high school. But then again, I have little faith when it comes to relying on strangers for anything critical. Whole other discussion and yeah, I know most doctors and EMT's are generally total strangers as well, but likewise, nobody is going to look out for family like family that massive majority of the time. 

[where]

Or maybe instead of economics classes and shit we all stop with the whole money thing cause of the whole usury thing and idk god hates the fuck out of it and it ultimately damns pretty much fucking everyone to a life filled with suffering and eventual eternal misery.

[morton]

Exits the chat.

[where]

2 minutes ago, morton said:

Exits the chat.

Coward 

[where]

1 hour ago, morton said:

Exits the chat.

You’re advocating the Hitler youth.

[mr.yuck]

@morton @Joker @misteraven @One Man Banned

 

I dont know what your highschool experience was like, but I spent the majority of my time selling weed, drawing rap letters, and scheming on bitches. I think if a teacher had tried to teach me how to wash my hands, credit scores, or balancing check books, I would have checked all the way out.

[where]

1 minute ago, mr.yuck said:

@morton @Joker @misteraven @One Man Banned

 

I dont know what your highschool experience was like, but I spent the majority of my time selling weed, drawing rap letters, and scheming on bitches. I think if a teacher had tried to teach me how to wash my hands, credit scores, or balancing check books, I would have checked all the way out.

Naw DOGGGGG they’re right and you’re wrong, that’s the climate 

[One Man Banned]

The issue to me is not really the when/where you learn it so much as the fact that it seems the majority of people don't know it, even with what's happening now.  If they did, they would better understand the importance of keepng your distance or staying home, and generally controlling the spread of things.

 

Not sure if separate and/or related but I think it's important to listen to the language being used by health care professionals with the buzzwords flatten the curve.  They are telling you to stay home, but they're not saying you're not going to get sick, only that they are trying to stretch out the cases to where it's more manageable.  

 

Also separate- we have a 12oz death pool... 12oz corona pool?  Too much too soon?  Either next celeb to announce getting Covid-19 or who will be the Oontzer to not get it.

 

 

[~KRYLON2~]

I was talking to some former colleges, and apparently half the workforce has been laid off and the rest are working part time now.