Pass the Corona ese... Novel Corona aka COVID-19

[delv]

I'm just gonna keep posting it - https://staythefuckhome.com/

 

Raven is right. Y'all should be worried and prepared for a couple weeks. If you are young and don't think you need to worry, you're an asshole. 

 

I'm not in the USA, but I'm stunned at what your government has/hasn't done. I wish you luck. 

[misteraven]

Again, I'm not trying to fear monger here. Best shit that can happen is someone figures out how to spread a cure around or this thing somehow burns out with everyone mobilizing the way they are.

 

I'm only saying this is huge already... This has cost the global economy many trillions of dollars. Hopefully that's the worst of it and we don't see crazy death numbers.

 

Either way, a person would really need to be living outside reality to not see how fragile the world really is. How just the idea of a pandemic cause disrupt the entire world to this degree. Even if this situation passes, if anyone can genuinely believe that humanity will always wiggle out of the type of tragedy that this is being described as... Then I wish I could tune reality out like that sometimes cause this shit terrifies me. Normally I don't live life assuming the worst or bracing for the apocalypse but both history has show and most experts state its more a matter of when, than if.

[delv]

It's kind of amazing this kind of thing has happened more regularly. 

 

Talk to old people about Polio and shit. They remember. 

[Kults]

19 minutes ago, misteraven said:

Nobody said end humanity. Just saying its going to hit hard and that if these numbers pan out, things will look different on the other end. There will be a time before CV18 and a time after.

 

Canada has 37,742,154 people according to wikipedia. 60 - 70% infection means 22,645,292 - 26,419,507 will be infected. The 3.4% you quoted means 769,940 - 898,263 deaths. What do you suppose Canada will look like if that were to occur? Can your country handle a casualty rate that high? Think you can probably bump that number up a point or two should the 60 - 70% infection + 3.4% death rate pan out?

Largely the same tbh with you. The people dying off are mostly over 60 yrs old. I realize this sounds callous but its the truth. Sure, it will be devastating on a personal level as im sure we all have loved ones in that age range but its not gonna shut down the power grid or make us run out of water.

[Kults]

29 minutes ago, SMdoubleXL said:

ima go cry by the river now. 

Plz dont, Youre gonna be ok

[abrasivesaint]

1 hour ago, misteraven said:

As you've seen for yourself, modern society is far more fragile than we're led to believe. Few businesses  out there that don't operate on 'just in time inventory', which is essentially a computer algorithm that tracks sales and then places supplier orders 3x daily based upon software that is predicting the bare minimum so that the shelves stay stocked

The fragility of society is something i think is pretty clear at this point. Everyone likes to think because they watch The Walking Dead they’re going to survive the end of civilization but we all know we won’t.

 

I saw a funny point against the “just in time inventory,” at least i thought it was funny. It was pointing out how Capitalism doesn’t allow for things to be stored in bulk, which in times like right now may or may not come in handy. Not saying one way or the other, just a funny thought to think about. 

 

1 hour ago, Fist 666 said:

 

If the virus hits as hard as predicted (60-70% of the population) you will have worker shortages in every avenue of infrastructure

 

I raise this question: At what point do we decide to say fuck the quarantine and fuck the more susceptible? Are we talking deaths or just simple sickness? 
 

 If this virus is mostly killing the old and sickly, people who are “dying anyway,” at what point, if it got to that point, would we as a society, say fuck em. If it got that bad, which i’m still not buying, we need to survive and we can’t do that pandering to everyone’s emotions. We need to go to work, sick or not, and we would need to persevere. If it got that bad there’s no time for bullshit, only cold calculation. 
 

Right now the lives of 327,000,000+ people are being affected because of 62 deaths and 3000+ people sick (last i saw.) this is madness. Utter madness. 
 

Think of it like this, for all the gun folk out there, on either side. If we shut down society every time 62 people died and 3000 people were injured by gunfire in America in the span of time that this virus has taken hold, we’d be shutdown forever.  

[abrasivesaint]

1 hour ago, Kults said:

1 hour ago, Fist 666 said:

 

Italy was hit the hardest mainly cause they have the oldest population demos in Europe

This is also a point that is not being brought up, and while i’m taking @Kultsword on this, its what i’ve been assuming. That, or their hospitals are utter shit. China’s air is absolutely terrible, some people wear masks in every day life. No wonder a virus that destroys lung function effected these populations the most. 

[Kults]

2 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said:

This is also a point that is not being brought up, and while i’m taking @Kultsword on this, its what i’ve been assuming. That, or their hospitals are utter shit. China’s air is absolutely terrible, some people wear masks in every day life. No wonder a virus that destroys lung function effected these populations the most. 

I posted the receipts. Check it out, issa fact

 

Here, may as well paste it

 

 

https://www.prb.org/which-country-has-the-oldest-population/

 

[Drue_Down]

Last night at resort #1, I see an Asian wedding. For real? (Any wedding really) but there are only 10 Asians in Arizona and I know 6 of them, meaning friends and family all flew in from the Pacific NW and Cali.

 

I told the family to move down to the other pools.

 

 

Check into resort #2 an hour ago and...... 😳

They can’t be seriously hosting this:

I was about to cancel my reservation, but thankfully the event was cancelled, leaving the hotel 70% unoccupied 👍

[abrasivesaint]

Lets have some fun with a conspiracy my afternoon-drunken brain laughed at while sitting by the river drinking and reading, “A Short History of Progress,” earlier:

 

Our politicians and their corporate pals are forcing this media driven COVID-19 mania/societal shutdown because they realized the majority of them fall into the age bracket of those most likely to succumb to the virus and die and they’re terrified of losing power and an accidental revolution so they want to squash the chances of them being exposed as quick as possible by quarantining the rest of society with no regard to how it’ll effect the lower classes because as always, they will be fine. 

[6Pennies]

16 minutes ago, Drue_Down said:

Last night at resort #1, I see an Asian wedding. For real? (Any wedding really) but there are only 10 Asians in Arizona and I know 6 of them, meaning friends and family all flew in from the Pacific NW and Cali.

 

I told the family to move down to the other pools.

 

 

Bro, (to continue with the sarcastic generalizations), practically the entire East Valley (PHX Metro) is Asian. 

 

BTW Asian and Mexican markets still have plenty of TP and rice....

[Kults]

 

 

Live

[Fist 666]

38 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said:

I raise this question: At what point do we decide to say fuck the quarantine and fuck the more susceptible? Are we talking deaths or just simple sickness? 
 

 If this virus is mostly killing the old and sickly, people who are “dying anyway,” at what point, if it got to that point, would we as a society, say fuck em. If it got that bad, which i’m still not buying, we need to survive and we can’t do that pandering to everyone’s emotions. We need to go to work, sick or not, and we would need to persevere. If it got that bad there’s no time for bullshit, only cold calculation. 
 

Right now the lives of 327,000,000+ people are being affected because of 62 deaths and 3000+ people sick (last i saw.) this is madness. Utter madness. 
 

Think of it like this, for all the gun folk out there, on either side. If we shut down society every time 62 people died and 3000 people were injured by gunfire in America in the span of time that this virus has taken hold, we’d be shutdown forever.  

So long term, it is potentially (economically) good. Too Many Old Farts/Not Enough Worker Bees

 

Cold calculation is fine, no problem with it on my end, however, our society is going to very much struggle with any idea that requires a near intentional culling of the herd.

 

Again, I don't discount that this is being overblown, however, erring on the side of safety for potential lives saved vs inconvenience for most falls in line with our societal values. If this thing drags on for a few months, the conversation you are asking for will be had. 

 

If it clears out 1 in 6 old people we will all feel it personally. I don't think that is utter madness.

 

[~KRYLON2~]

I'm just gonna help put some of your concerns about water supply at ease, most water treatment plants have backup generators they can run off of if the power goes out. I don't think our power supply/water infrastructure is in any danger from the outbreak of corona virus. 

 

The company I work for has decades of experience supplying water to people displaced by natural disasters, and we have a plan on how to get water where it needs to be regardless of the current situation 

 

with that said, if SHTF, I'm not gonna puss out and stay home. I'm going to get up and go to work and help people 

[abrasivesaint]

@Fist 666  The madness comment i meant mostly in terms of numbers alone. Surely if all our grandmas and grandpas start dying off we’ll feel the effects as a whole. I know i don’t want ol Nana dying on me. 
 

I also should probably restate that by “fuck em” i also mean, maybe quarantine the more susceptible instead of the largely infected populous. And if that doesnt work, maybe, fuck em. 

[Europe]

Ok, day 4 of 18 of stay-home-for-fucks-sake done. Its a challenge on its own, but we are good. Kids are sleeping, just read the last two pages of this thread, and lots of things are way different here.

First of all, this is a crisis of humans (not goods!) and human interaction. Our society is working absolutely fine, power works, water works, traffic light works, internet works etc etc, nothing stopped working. Supply chains work, supermarkets are full of food, pharmacies full of meds too. You think "big pharma " and "big supermarket" are going to stop wanting to make money? They are not doing that here in our "socialist" country, Im preeeeety sure they will also keep making money in the US. 

Any type of business with people interacting is fucked, all arts, all entertainment, all fun, bars, restaurant, cinemas, massage places, stripjoints, cafe, malls, hairdressers, consultants, education, sports, activities, amusements, tall fucked. If you work in any of this, get ready to not make any money for a long time, or be fired. Imagine your job with no people interacting, or that people stop demanding whatever you sell/do because its "nice to have", not "need to have". Thats the crisis, and its very real. 

What you need to do, and its harder than it sounds, is not interact with anyone" Stay at home! Dont go out, no gym, no haircut, no beers with friends, nothing, Stay at home, dont come near anyone. Its the only way to to the virus from spreading. And make everyone you know do the same. Its harder than it sounds, but its the only way. 

[delv]

Yes! THIS! ^^^^

 

Where are you located?

 

The issue down under is every fucker raided all the groceries and fucked it for everyone.  They "got mine, so fuck you". This goes against what we should be doing right now. It's scary for that reason. 

 

Just stay home and chill the fuck out. 

[Fist 666]

@abrasivesaintIf it were limited to the US the numbers you cited would be valid, it isn't limited to the US, so they aren't. 

 

Just going off of Merkel's numbers, if we have a 60-70% infection rate with a 3.4% fatality rate as predicted in Germany, then the 62 deaths is very, very early/low

 

Quote

 

Right now the lives of 327,000,000+ people are being affected because of 62 deaths and 3000+ people sick (last i saw.) this is madness. Utter madness. 

Quote

Its at 3.9% according to the WHO. Go back and reread my previous post with the math on that. The Chancellor or Germany addressed her entire country to say that 60 - 70% of the ENTIRE country would be infected. If that happens in the USA,  you're talking between 7,745,400 - 9,036,300 people dying only from this 'flu'.

It is a big if, we are early in figuring out infection rate and fatality rate. As it sweeps Europe we will get a better understanding of what these numbers actually are. If those estimated are doubled or even 10x off, that is a massive number dead in a short period.

 

2010 Census Numbers

 

Over 80s make up over 4% of the US population, over 65 is 12%. 

 

If caskets are on the NYSE now's the time to buy...

[Europe]

Im in Copenhagen, Denmark, since many of you are asking. Our government has rightfully taken a lot of very big steps in order to slow down the spread of the virus. This is the KEY: slow the spreading down. It can't be contained, but society can cope with it, if everyone doesn't get it at once. If everyone gets it at once, hospitals will be overloaded and break down, and then people will really start dying from it when they cant get treated. Thats why you need to stay at home, so that everyone dont get right away. Italy is fucked because their system broke down from everyone getting it at once, we are taking drastic measures early, to try and end in another scenario where we can cope with it. Also, a broken down hospital system also means people will die from all sorts of other shit that a functioning hospital usual treats and prevents. See the point here, as a society, you cant afford for your hospital system to break down. Would you like to die from appendicitis, or some other easy-treatable shit? Thats what will happen...

 

Can anyone tell me the capacity in the US for hospitalizations by the way, like how many available beds are there right now? How many intensive care units? You are going to need every single one of them, and once they are full, doctors will start to select who gets treatments and lives, and who doesnt and dies. Its a fun job...

 

As for the US, which I guess most this board is from these days, (I also have family in the US and a bachelor degree in US Studies,) I gotta say the US really fumbled this as far as I can see and read the last few weeks. And you have a horrible medical system (but lets not get into that now). So the US is behind already, should have taken drastic measures several weeks ago, but you know, Trump.Also, its not about testing really, I read that all the time from the US, tests, tests, tests. Doesnt matter, if you have it, stay at home and itll go away for most people, and few might need a hospitall but it can be cured, if the hospital work.. If you dont have it, stay at home so you dont get it and spread it. Either way, stay at home!

 

Statisticly, and this is a fun one, its a 1:3 virus, meaning that one person get it and pass it on to 3 others, on average. Since it spreads very easily and fast, and you can be a carrier for many days without knowing it... It has exponential growth. Start with 3, multiple by 3= 9 right.

3

9

27

81

243

729

2187

6561

19.683

59049

177147

531441

1.594323

4.782969

14.348907

43.046721

129.140163

387.420489

so 18 steps later more than the US population in total... How many US hospital beds again?

[misteraven]

40 minutes ago, Europe said:

Ok, day 4 of 18 of stay-home-for-fucks-sake done. Its a challenge on its own, but we are good. Kids are sleeping, just read the last two pages of this thread, and lots of things are way different here.

First of all, this is a crisis of humans (not goods!) and human interaction. Our society is working absolutely fine, power works, water works, traffic light works, internet works etc etc, nothing stopped working. Supply chains work, supermarkets are full of food, pharmacies full of meds too. You think "big pharma " and "big supermarket" are going to stop wanting to make money? They are not doing that here in our "socialist" country, Im preeeeety sure they will also keep making money in the US. 

Any type of business with people interacting is fucked, all arts, all entertainment, all fun, bars, restaurant, cinemas, massage places, stripjoints, cafe, malls, hairdressers, consultants, education, sports, activities, amusements, tall fucked. If you work in any of this, get ready to not make any money for a long time, or be fired. Imagine your job with no people interacting, or that people stop demanding whatever you sell/do because its "nice to have", not "need to have". Thats the crisis, and its very real. 

What you need to do, and its harder than it sounds, is not interact with anyone" Stay at home! Dont go out, no gym, no haircut, no beers with friends, nothing, Stay at home, dont come near anyone. Its the only way to to the virus from spreading. And make everyone you know do the same. Its harder than it sounds, but its the only way. 

Glad to hear things are as smooth as they can be. I'm not sure I'll hold your country up as an example of how things here will be since we have a good many states, as well as a couple cities that I believe are more densely populated than your entire country. Also, we're already seeing issues with supply chain here. We'll see if it corrects but I'm willing to bet that with everyone stating that we're just about to ramp up with this thing here that the next rush to restock is going to wipe out things in an even bigger way. 

 

Taking bets if anyone is up for it

 

 

 

 

Anyhow, thanks for the update @Europe best of luck to you and your family to navigate through all this as smoothly as possible. Keep us updated!

 

As far as social distancing, thats already been second nature for me. Almost looking forward to not having to make up an excuse to not leave my place. Kids will probably go bananas, but thats what internet and playstation are for I guess. If they complain too loud there's plenty of work to do around the house to stay busy with.

[misteraven]

 

12 minutes ago, Europe said:

Can anyone tell me the capacity in the US for hospitalizations by the way, like how many available beds are there right now? How many intensive care units? You are going to need every single one of them, and once they are full, doctors will start to select who gets treatments and lives, and who doesnt and dies. Its a fun job...

Look below at a previous post.

 

On 3/13/2020 at 6:13 PM, misteraven said:

https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

 

 

 

[Fist 666]

Fucked up things become ordinary when ordinary things become fucked up...

What a fucking headline.

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-isis-terrorists-europe/

Quote

ISIS tells terrorists to steer clear of coronavirus-stricken Europe

Terror group advises hand washing rather than attacks on the West.

 

[misteraven]

Military is restricting all travel for personal and families. Buddy of mine says next week travel for everyone else is being shut down.

 

https://people.com/politics/department-of-defense-bans-domestic-travel-for-military-members-families-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/

[Europe]

13 minutes ago, misteraven said:

 

Look below at a previous post.

 

 

Thank you,, well those numbers are pretty scary! 

[~KRYLON2~]

well we found the answer to world peace

[Europe]

Oh yeah, airlines. The big Scandinavian airline SAS just cancelled all their flights and sent home 90% of their staff. Pretty soon the world will not have a functioning airline industry anymore, as demand is non existing right now. This is looking to change aviation history forever.

[~KRYLON2~]

even when corona has died out, its aftermath will be felt all over the world. lets see how governments react to this event in its aftermath  

[KILZ FILLZ]

My grocery store is rationing bread! This is nuts 

[KILZ FILLZ]

the food run is now hitting Mexican groceries too. I went in to get bananas and completely struck out. Entire meat section was empty too. 
 

 

 

 

 

[mr.yuck]

Better stock up on those quail eggs, pears, and pig scraps.