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CLICKCLACKONER

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  • 4 weeks later...
9 hours ago, AvramFaind said:

So what do you think of btc going below $10000, guys? Is it actually real? Peter Schiff says that the probability is really high, so I have no idea what to do if this happens. Actually, I’ve been trading Forex for more than 7 years, and cryptocurrency is new to me. That’s why I’m trying to figure out the way it works. Btw, have any of you here been on Forex? I’ve found good forex indicators. I hope it will be helpful for someone. Anyway, I think cryptocrisis has already come, so we should stay patient.

Go back to the other thread you posted in last year and tell the story of running into your mom at the sex shop.

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10 hours ago, AvramFaind said:

So what do you think of btc going below $10000, guys? Is it actually real? Peter Schiff says that the probability is really high, so I have no idea what to do if this happens. Actually, I’ve been trading Forex for more than 7 years, and cryptocurrency is new to me. That’s why I’m trying to figure out the way it works. Btw, have any of you here been on Forex? I’ve found good forex indicators. I hope it will be helpful for someone. Anyway, I think cryptocrisis has already come, so we should stay patient.

 

57 minutes ago, LUGR said:

Go back to the other thread you posted in last year and tell the story of running into your mom at the sex shop.

 

^^ yeah, I wanna hear this.  

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39 minutes ago, AvramFaind said:

I hope it will be helpful for someone. Anyway, I think cryptocrisis has already come, so we should stay patient.

Nobody gives a shit.

 

Tell is the story we requested above that you mentioned in your first post on this forum.

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  • 2 weeks later...
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  • 4 weeks later...

Crypto nerds. Especially you, @Mercer. Has there been any change whatsoever in your stance on eth or btc's future value? And if not are you planning on holding forever? I'm not sure but it seems like the the stand still at these current prices has been slightly longer imo but probably not. I guess where im going with this is do you think the currency is losing lackluster? School me on the matter. Definitely not holding much anymore but i havent since cashing out a shit load this time 2021 for house shit. Just debating myself on going back in because its so low right now.  

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1 hour ago, CLICKCLACKONER said:

Remember, you're only getting taxed on your gains, not the principal.  If I'm not mistaken, you're self-employed and bought a truck....deductions like a muhfucka.  Cashout on all your crypto losses before the end of the year then buy them back on  01/01/2023.

 

@NightmareOnElmStreet

IMG_4189.GIF.9a9a954235e0b3b490b503c97f040b32.GIF

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Disclaimer: The future is wide open, anything can happen and this is only speculation. That said, if anyone loses money that's 100% on you all the way. Same thing if you gain, still all you. Obligatory "do your own research" & "this is not financial advice".  2nd thing is you might not want to listen to me since my faith in cryptocurrency is on a near religious scale. Needless to say I have a strong bias that it's going up over the long term. I stopped thinking in, or caring about the short term (high time preference) when I was poor.

 

image.thumb.png.fccdfae8fe1ba293d8dcd874730a40a3.png

 

I said everything I'm about to say before in here more or less. Some time before the pandemic, and before $64,000 bitcoin & $5000 Ethereum when doubts were about as strong as they are now, and I was sacrificing everything I could to invest. Looking at the history, there's no doubt the biggest factor in Bitcoin's price is halvenings. I knew this 2 halvenings ago.

 

Bitcoin is slowing down in it's exponential growth, and ETH has more potential at this point for growth & adoption IMO. Since BTC is much bigger,t it exerts the most sway over the entire crypto market which is why BTC's halvening matters so much. Also, I do not fuck with any shitcoins (to me that means anything outside of BTC/ETH). I also dislike NFT's but do hold a few shitcoins & even some crypto kitties NFT's from 2017ish.

 

Anyway, looking at the data we have:

 

1st halvening

  • on 2012/11/28
  • 1 year 2 weeks later
  • ATH 2013/12/13
  • 8500% gains from halvening to ATH

 

2nd halvening

  • on 2016/07/09
  • 2017/12/17 all time high approx 1.5 years later
  • 3,000% gains since the previous ATH

 

3rd halvening halvening

  • on 2020/05/11
  • 2021/11/12 all time high approx 1.5 years later
  • 300% gains since the previous ATH

 

4th halvening

  • all speculation 
  • predicted 2024/04/25
  • 2025/11/01 next all time high 1.5 years later
  • 30% gain since the previous ATH $83,000 (low range guess)
  • 50% gains since the previous ATH $128,000k (high range guess)

 

TLDR: The next halvening is 529 days from now, so accumulation has been historically best for the next 164 days, then still recommended between April 2023 through april 2024 when we should see steady gains up until halvening #4.  Sell in November/December 2025. IDK tho

 

image.png.adf947757c6a754aac0f576fbbc9b4c0.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/11/2022 at 10:46 AM, Mercer said:

 

 

4th halvening

  • all speculation 
  • predicted 2024/04/25
  • 2025/11/01 next all time high 1.5 years later
  • 30% gain since the previous ATH $83,000 (low range guess)
  • 50% gains since the previous ATH $128,000k (high range guess)

 

 

Typo?  Should the next ATH be 2026/11/01.  Just wanted to make sure.

 

Also, should the next ATH on the 5th halving be like 5% gains?

 

Excellent breakdown btw.

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I'm not sure, the actual upward price pressure starts day of halvening since miners almost immediately dump whatever they're issued as far as newly minted bitcoin to cover electricity and hardware costs. When this starts drying up on exchanges demand skyrockets. 

 

Under normal circumstances from the day of the halvening, until the next all time high for the 4 year cycle took almost exactly 1.5 years. If our next halvening is on 2024/04/25 and we add 1 year 6 months it's 2025/10/25 but instead of Oct. 25th I rounded it up to Nov 1st.

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