What the fuck is going on in Ukraine?

[KILZ FILLZ]

I wonder how much more bakelite babushka has? 🤔 

[MarcoFromHouston]

Sharing something one of my journalism mentors posted on FB:

 

"Kiev and Ukraine hold a special place in Russian cultural identification. The Kievan Rus. The Vikings who came through and settled the region. The descendants who survived the Mongol purge. The badasses who would found the Russian Empire. People keep going on and on about the USSR, but Putin harkens back to Peter, Catherine, Ivan. 

 

Putin doesn't think in terms of Communism versus Capitalism, although he was educated and indoctrinated in a system that did. He thinks in terms of values. He sees the West as decadent and dying. Russian literature, especially modern Russian literature, is fascinating in the way it portrays Russians versus the West. Russians are seen as stoic, suffering, but holding on to traditional values. Westerners, and Americans in particular, are seen as chaotic, decadent, with no values whatsoever. Putin constantly makes comments about men being demeaned, trans and homosexual groups being granted greater freedoms, the loss of religious values (which is interesting since Communism disavows religion explicitly, but Russian identity is bound intrinsically to the Orthodox Church). as dangerous shifts for the human race. He literally sees Russia, with himself at the head, as practically a savior for the human race in some ways.

 

He feels like men have very specific proscribed roles to play. To be a man is to act in very specific ways, and the same goes for women. He very much believes in what we'd call stereotyped masculine and feminine roles in society.

 

What does all this have to do with Ukraine? Well, as far as Putin is concerned, Ukraine is a part of Russia, even more than Crimea. He doesn't even think of them as two separate entities. As he says, the separation of the two is an artificial historical accident. 

 

Since the fall of the USSR, Ukraine has always been a country divided by language. Ukraine, spoken by 67% in the western two thirds, has always been the language of people who leaned towards Europe. There is also the emphasis among Russian speakers regarding the Ukrainian cooperation with Nazi Germany (in an effort to gain independence from the USSR), the atrocities the Ukrainian forces aligned with Germany perpetuated during WWII, and what they perceive as the continued Naziism among the people who lean towards Europe. As you can imagine given the bloodshed and devastation wrought by the Germans in WWII, all of this is loaded language. Hence Putin speaks about the demilitarization and "denazification" of Ukraine. For Putin, any support for Europe and European values is akin to proof of Naziism. It's all one and the same to him.

 

The Orange Revolution in 2004/5 came before Putin had secured his power base. Nonetheless, he was able to support President Yanukovych, who won the election in 2010 as a Russian speaker. I'm not going to go into everything that led up to the Maidan Revolution of 2014, other than to say Yanukovych eventually fled, in part because he wasn't willing to do what Assad did in Syria. The Maidan Revolution made Putin feel like he was losing his control over Ukraine, which is when he took over Crimea to secure that territory with its major naval base. After he had Crimea secured he sent in special forces to the Donbas region to destabilize it and created protected zones, going so far as to send in the Russian military to wipe out the Ukrainian forces who were sweeping the separation forces easily.

 

There has never been a time when Putin hasn't considered bringing Ukraine back under the Russian aegis as foreign policy priority #1. Georgia, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, much less Finland, just don't have anything resembling the same emotional or geopolitical importance of Ukraine. Economic, either, for that matter. The only one that comes close is Belarus, but Putin feels like he has Belarus firmly in the Russian SOI as long as Lukashenko is in charge. Which also has had its own share of protests, but Lukashenko is no Yanukovych, either in terms of control over his country, or ruthlessness. He's more on the Assad spectrum. 

 

I do not see this turning into a wider conflict unless Putin lives for 20 more years. Ukraine will be a lot to swallow. I don't see it becoming Iraq or Afghanistan (Russian or US), or Vietnam. It won't even be a Chechnya. Ukraine lacks the religious differences which pushes people to extremes, and frankly, the cultural differences between Ukrainians and Russians aren't that large in the context of those other countries. Pro-Russian politicians have enjoyed popular support in Ukraine since the breakup of the USSR.

 

What it will be is entirely dysfunctional, ruled by corrupt oligarchs who are basically crime bosses with fancy titles, with the richest being the head of state (don't know if anyone has seen the palace that Yanukovych built while he was in power - expect more of the same when Putin puts a puppet leader in charge of Ukraine). 

 

Putin will continue to do more to destabilize any countries on its border, especially any politicians or movements that are opposed to Russian interests, whether it's Finland, the Baltic states, or Georgia. I could even see Russia basically taking over Georgia if Putin decides it's moved too far to the West. He has to be feeling his own mortality the same way every 70 year old does. Making this move regarding Ukraine is simply completing a process he felt never should have gotten away from him back in 2014 in the first place if Yanukovych had simply been a more ruthless ruler. 

 

What I will say is that the West's biggest mistakes have always involved giving Ukrainian's false hope that they wouldn't be left to dry if push came to shove. This started with the Budapest Memorandum where Ukraine was promised protection for its sovereignty in return for giving up its possession of nuclear weapons, all the way through the two major protests in 2005 and 2014 supported and in part financed by western interests, and in the years since then, with all the mixed messages regarding what to do about Russia's annexation of Crimea and their involvement in Donbas. The West was never going to give Ukraine advanced weaponry. They were never going to station troops to support Ukrainian forces. And they were never going to declare war on Russia in case of military action. And that's the only thing that ever had any hope of deterring what we're seeing today. This invasion of Ukraine has always been inevitable. Didn't matter who was president. 

 

On the other hand, for the states who have been accepted into NATO, basically until NATO truly breaks up, the members are safe from Russian direct military invasion like we're seeing right now in Ukraine. They're not safe from other destabilization techniques, but Russia/Putin isn't going to go that far. Which is why he's been so adamant about NATO promises not to expand in the first place. Of course, Trump has made noises in the past about breaking up NATO, so maybe a president in the future truly does progress along those lines. I think it would be a mistake of the highest order, but that's a different discussion."

 

 

[misteraven]

5 hours ago, MarcoFromHouston said:

Sharing something one of my journalism mentors posted on FB:

 

"Kiev and Ukraine hold a special place in Russian cultural identification. The Kievan Rus. The Vikings who came through and settled the region. The descendants who survived the Mongol purge. The badasses who would found the Russian Empire. People keep going on and on about the USSR, but Putin harkens back to Peter, Catherine, Ivan. 

 

Putin doesn't think in terms of Communism versus Capitalism, although he was educated and indoctrinated in a system that did. He thinks in terms of values. He sees the West as decadent and dying. Russian literature, especially modern Russian literature, is fascinating in the way it portrays Russians versus the West. Russians are seen as stoic, suffering, but holding on to traditional values. Westerners, and Americans in particular, are seen as chaotic, decadent, with no values whatsoever. Putin constantly makes comments about men being demeaned, trans and homosexual groups being granted greater freedoms, the loss of religious values (which is interesting since Communism disavows religion explicitly, but Russian identity is bound intrinsically to the Orthodox Church). as dangerous shifts for the human race. He literally sees Russia, with himself at the head, as practically a savior for the human race in some ways.

 

He feels like men have very specific proscribed roles to play. To be a man is to act in very specific ways, and the same goes for women. He very much believes in what we'd call stereotyped masculine and feminine roles in society.

 

What does all this have to do with Ukraine? Well, as far as Putin is concerned, Ukraine is a part of Russia, even more than Crimea. He doesn't even think of them as two separate entities. As he says, the separation of the two is an artificial historical accident. 

 

Since the fall of the USSR, Ukraine has always been a country divided by language. Ukraine, spoken by 67% in the western two thirds, has always been the language of people who leaned towards Europe. There is also the emphasis among Russian speakers regarding the Ukrainian cooperation with Nazi Germany (in an effort to gain independence from the USSR), the atrocities the Ukrainian forces aligned with Germany perpetuated during WWII, and what they perceive as the continued Naziism among the people who lean towards Europe. As you can imagine given the bloodshed and devastation wrought by the Germans in WWII, all of this is loaded language. Hence Putin speaks about the demilitarization and "denazification" of Ukraine. For Putin, any support for Europe and European values is akin to proof of Naziism. It's all one and the same to him.

 

The Orange Revolution in 2004/5 came before Putin had secured his power base. Nonetheless, he was able to support President Yanukovych, who won the election in 2010 as a Russian speaker. I'm not going to go into everything that led up to the Maidan Revolution of 2014, other than to say Yanukovych eventually fled, in part because he wasn't willing to do what Assad did in Syria. The Maidan Revolution made Putin feel like he was losing his control over Ukraine, which is when he took over Crimea to secure that territory with its major naval base. After he had Crimea secured he sent in special forces to the Donbas region to destabilize it and created protected zones, going so far as to send in the Russian military to wipe out the Ukrainian forces who were sweeping the separation forces easily.

 

There has never been a time when Putin hasn't considered bringing Ukraine back under the Russian aegis as foreign policy priority #1. Georgia, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, much less Finland, just don't have anything resembling the same emotional or geopolitical importance of Ukraine. Economic, either, for that matter. The only one that comes close is Belarus, but Putin feels like he has Belarus firmly in the Russian SOI as long as Lukashenko is in charge. Which also has had its own share of protests, but Lukashenko is no Yanukovych, either in terms of control over his country, or ruthlessness. He's more on the Assad spectrum. 

 

I do not see this turning into a wider conflict unless Putin lives for 20 more years. Ukraine will be a lot to swallow. I don't see it becoming Iraq or Afghanistan (Russian or US), or Vietnam. It won't even be a Chechnya. Ukraine lacks the religious differences which pushes people to extremes, and frankly, the cultural differences between Ukrainians and Russians aren't that large in the context of those other countries. Pro-Russian politicians have enjoyed popular support in Ukraine since the breakup of the USSR.

 

What it will be is entirely dysfunctional, ruled by corrupt oligarchs who are basically crime bosses with fancy titles, with the richest being the head of state (don't know if anyone has seen the palace that Yanukovych built while he was in power - expect more of the same when Putin puts a puppet leader in charge of Ukraine). 

 

Putin will continue to do more to destabilize any countries on its border, especially any politicians or movements that are opposed to Russian interests, whether it's Finland, the Baltic states, or Georgia. I could even see Russia basically taking over Georgia if Putin decides it's moved too far to the West. He has to be feeling his own mortality the same way every 70 year old does. Making this move regarding Ukraine is simply completing a process he felt never should have gotten away from him back in 2014 in the first place if Yanukovych had simply been a more ruthless ruler. 

 

What I will say is that the West's biggest mistakes have always involved giving Ukrainian's false hope that they wouldn't be left to dry if push came to shove. This started with the Budapest Memorandum where Ukraine was promised protection for its sovereignty in return for giving up its possession of nuclear weapons, all the way through the two major protests in 2005 and 2014 supported and in part financed by western interests, and in the years since then, with all the mixed messages regarding what to do about Russia's annexation of Crimea and their involvement in Donbas. The West was never going to give Ukraine advanced weaponry. They were never going to station troops to support Ukrainian forces. And they were never going to declare war on Russia in case of military action. And that's the only thing that ever had any hope of deterring what we're seeing today. This invasion of Ukraine has always been inevitable. Didn't matter who was president. 

 

On the other hand, for the states who have been accepted into NATO, basically until NATO truly breaks up, the members are safe from Russian direct military invasion like we're seeing right now in Ukraine. They're not safe from other destabilization techniques, but Russia/Putin isn't going to go that far. Which is why he's been so adamant about NATO promises not to expand in the first place. Of course, Trump has made noises in the past about breaking up NATO, so maybe a president in the future truly does progress along those lines. I think it would be a mistake of the highest order, but that's a different discussion."

 

 

good read. 
 

thought all the news suddenly coming out about the Fed and government claiming to be able to enforce sanctions in the crypto world was kind of interesting. Maybe @Mercer can step in and give us an overview on the validity of those claims and perhaps break into the specifics of how it could be done or why it can’t?

Yellen Says Treasury Will Monitor Crypto, Other Channels for Sanctions Evasion

https://decrypt.co/94273/yellen-treasury-monitor-crypto-sanctions-evasion

[Mercer]

I still say there's a big surprise in this for the West outside of the Slavic Hitler trying to unify Russia theory. The grain shortage theory floating around is looking super credible RN.

[misteraven]

30 minutes ago, Mercer said:

I still say there's a big surprise in this for the West outside of the Slavic Hitler trying to unify Russia theory. The grain shortage theory floating around is looking super credible RN.

Link or description of grain shortage theory?

 

Also, look at my last comment… Mind diving in?

[KILZ FILLZ]

 .

[Mercer]

Trying to be a 10 in a world of fucking 2's is frustrating, so I'm going to be a 2 now.

[Elena Delle Donne]

based

[Elena Delle Donne]

anyway, leaking this feels like another propaganda move to motivate ukrainians and pro-ukraine forces. ukraine has a real propaganda machine behind it, like kilz said, both willing and unwilling. 

 

 

putin might really thinking that he and his troops are going to invade ukraine, a country they consider so similar to russia that it should be part of it, and start executing dissidents? and the russian army is going to eagerly go along with it, with the defections they've suffered? and when this isn't putin's method of disappearing people anyway? it smells.  

[Elena Delle Donne]

4 hours ago, Mercer said:

I still say there's a big surprise in this for the West outside of the Slavic Hitler trying to unify Russia theory. The grain shortage theory floating around is looking super credible RN.

 

the fields themselves aren't getting damaged (yet?) but yeah. if the ports are severed, if the farmers get killed fighting on the front lines, there will be shortages. this is why i don't think putin cracks chernobyl or the other nuclear facilities — he could use this farmland and the exports more than irradiated grain. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Elena Delle Donne

[Dark_Knight]

3 hours ago, Mercer said:

Trying to be a 10 in a world of fucking 2's is frustrating, so I'm going to be a 2 now.

i think Putin is a gay lmao

[Dark_Knight]

Not that anything is wrong with that.

 

 

/ProHomo™

[Mercer]

Grain shortage theory:

 

• China buys unusually large amounts of grain for their strategic reserves 2021. (linked search showing several news sources)

• Putin suspended Ammonium Nitrate sales to Europe  early February well before invading.

1. Ammonium Nitrate is a petrochemical fertilizer Russia would never actually have a shortage of
2. Ammonium Nitrate is essential for growing grain crops,  and most of it in Europe comes from Russia
3. Farmers will need to pay exponentially more for Ammonium Nitrate, or grow non-grain crops this year
4. This fall, a significantly reduced grain harvest will occur, but Russia & China will be doing OK
5. China starts cashing out their USD investments and inflation doubles the cost of food
6. China drove the price up, so nobody in the west stocked up their strategic reserves for this
7. Food shortage starts ramping up Q4 2022, as Russia and China are laughing at our sanctions now
8. Bread costs over $15 USD a loaf by end of next summer, guaranteed recipe for civil unrest
9. U.S. unable to exert international power due to problems at home
10. No more Taiwan, etc. also no more "former" Soviet States
11. Economic collapse of the West, great depression 2.0

 

 

[Mercer]

No idea if that's true, but that's the only long game strategy I've heard that isn't "Russia Dumb Nazi" that actually makes logical sense, and is verifiable as far as these events happening openly, and being reported on in the press leading up to this.

 

I'm 50/50 on this theory, and the Putin is stupid for whatever reason theory to explain why these sanctions (we all knew would happen) would be worth him Invading for. Regardless I'm stocking up on non-perishables this year pretty heavy just for the food price increases I'm 100% sure on happening.

 

Funny thing about food, if you believe in subjective value theory, is that it can raise in value exponentially during shortages. People will gladly trade their car, or anything they have to feed their family and save off starvation. With 8 billion of us on the planet, if there's only 7.5 billion people's worth of food, things will get very ugly, very quick.

[6Pennies]

I dropped the Grain Shortage Theory on a buddy, he came back with this:

 

[Dark_Knight]

What kind of name starts with an x

[KILZ FILLZ]

2 minutes ago, Dark_Knight said:

What kind of name starts with an x

Xavier 

[KILZ FILLZ]

This is the first I’ve heard of the grain theory. I’ll say this.. our American minds think in four year spurts. If we are lucky we get a two term and then it’s an eight year spurt. Then a new guy comes in and undoes the shit the last guy did, so we lost eight years. 
 

russia and even more China…. Think in multi decade long spurts. They have ten and twenty year plans. If I remember right, China has a 100 year plan. 

[Dark_Knight]

 

[6Pennies]

another counter to the Grain Shortage Theory from another bud:

 

[6Pennies]

1 hour ago, KILZ FILLZ said:

Xavier 

 

winnawinna!

[KILZ FILLZ]

Jajaja

[Mercer]

Corn itself is a Grain, in fact one of the grains china suspiciously bought up @6PenniesIn the United States we make our own Ammonium Nitrate. So that's not really a counter. There are grain reserves, and strategic grain reserves.  We do have a massive amount of debt, and a very bloated balance sheet on the stock market that if it crashed because the Chinese, who are pretending to not be plotting actually are, and pull their investments/debt. 

[ndv]

@Mercer @6Pennies 

 

I am trying to follow you guys.  So basically this is a power grab.  I mean, duh 🙄  but basically Russia is acting up on things that have been long over due on their part and China is capitalizing on this economically but Russia needs a blessing?   Yes, No? 

[6Pennies]

1 hour ago, Mercer said:

Corn itself is a Grain, in fact one of the grains china suspiciously bought up @6PenniesIn the United States we make our own Ammonium Nitrate. So that's not really a counter. There are grain reserves, and strategic grain reserves.  We do have a massive amount of debt, and a very bloated balance sheet on the stock market that if it crashed because the Chinese, who are pretending to not be plotting actually are, and pull their investments/debt. 

 Yep, I posted about the US's Ammonium Nitrate, buddy says we could ramp up production to help out Europe....

 

Still trying to follow the theory.   Chinese chasing out/crashing out stock market drives up the price of bread.  What's the connection back to Ammonium Nitrate?

[KILZ FILLZ]

 used in fertilizer I think but idk 

[Elena Delle Donne]

4 hours ago, Dark_Knight said:

 

 

if i'm wrong i'm wrong! 

[ndv]

Well it looks like The Black Dolphin is about to become over crowded. 

 

https://www.click2houston.com/news/2022/03/04/russian-president-vladimir-putin-outlaws-the-spread-of-fake-reports/

[KILZ FILLZ]

[T4M*]