War in the middle east and intervention debate

[KILZ FILLZ]

Gnarly

[Dirty_habiT]

Fuck these goat/donkey fuckers.

 

 

I'm glad we killed their general, fuck him and I hope he's down there in hell waking up under a pile of virgin dudes with his lips and eyes crusted shut.

 

Fucking jean jackets during combat.  What a joke.

[CALIgula]

I think it's important here to remember that there's a difference between the people of Iran and the government of Iran. 

[Kults]

[misteraven]

14 hours ago, Hua Guofang said:

Fuck me, FARS is the state broadcaster in Iran

 

 

 

 

Guess camera equipment and special effects in Iran hasn't progressed past the 1960's. 

 

Somebody send those guys Netflix cause Jurassic World and Transformers are gonna blow their minds.

[Kults]

10 minutes ago, misteraven said:

Guess camera equipment and special effects in Iran hasn't progressed past the 1960's. 

 

Somebody send those guys Netflix cause Jurassic World and Transformers are gonna blow their minds.

I love how at the end there they're causally strolling around outside the white house like yeee mission accomplished lol

[Kults]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-tweet-in-farsi-the-most-liked-persian-tweet-in-history-of-twitter

 

Quote

Trump tweet in Farsi 'the most liked Persian tweet' in history of Twitter

Quote

"This tweet by @realDonaldTrump with more than 100k likes is already the most liked Persian tweet in the history of Twitter," Saeed Ghasseminejad, senior adviser and financial economist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, claimed. "A strong show of support by Iranians for Trump's Iran policy, something the MSM does not and will not report."

 

[Hua Guofang]

Ha, I love the article calling FDD hawks, I know some of their folk pretty well and they aren't even close to hawks (one was Hilary's senior FP advisor and another was a guy who won't work in the WH under Trump. Dan is most definitely an Iran hawk though, to the point I'm surprised half the people at FDD work with him as he loses objectivity in his aim to have the clerics removed.

 

They've been marching for one reason or another for almost a decade, starting under Ahmadinejad. Hasn't really changed anything yet.

[Kults]

Can’t help but be in awe of his 4D chess trolling skills lol 

[Hua Guofang]

What’s he going to do if they kill protesters?

[Kults]

Use it as a false altruistic reason to fuck with them some more?

[Kults]

Oh and bonus, force the left into the mental gymnastics special Olympics to defend the Iranian regime's use of violence on their own citizens

[Dirty_habiT]

 

 

 

[Kults]

[Mercer]

My dad was actually a fan of his, it used to turn my stomach.

[Hua Guofang]

21 hours ago, Kults said:

Use it as a false altruistic reason to fuck with them some more?

How though?

 

What would fucking with them look like?

 

I only ask as there's not a lot the US can do when it comes to Iran. It can keep assassinating their people but there are always consequences for escalation. They can add more sanctions but to what end? Iran has levers it can pull; it can close the Hormuz Strait crashing the global energy market. It can launch it's own hits on US embassies and consulates around the world and the US and Iran can go tit for tat to just end up where we are again.

 

I mean that's doable and it can be spun politically by each state to their constituents. But the reality will be they will just end up back where they started, neither state will have gained ascendency.

 

The protests are interesting and they can be mishandled by the Iranian govt but they still have support of the police, armed forces, IRGC etc. and unless they shift, nothing will change but the number of dead.

[Hua Guofang]

No idea if this is true but my skepticism towards politicians and geopolitics leads me to expect it's accurate:

 

Justin Amash

 

@justinamash

 

More American troops are now in the Middle East than at the end of President Obama’s term. The rate of drone strikes is up, too. President Trump is not ending wars; he’s expanding them. He’s not bringing troops home; he’s sending them there.

[Kults]

6 minutes ago, Hua Guofang said:

How though?

 

What would fucking with them look like?

 

The protests are interesting and they can be mishandled by the Iranian govt but they still have support of the police, armed forces, IRGC etc. and unless they shift, nothing will change but the number of dead.

You said it yourself. They kill more of their people and the world's opinion of them solidifies. The US doesn't have to do shit, the Iranian regime has proven they're more than capable of bringing on their own downfall.

[Hua Guofang]

How does the world's opinion of them solidifying bring about their downfall?

 

The world has had a pretty clear opinion of North Korea for over 50 years but they're still going strong.

[Kults]

1 minute ago, Hua Guofang said:

but they're still going strong.

I guess it depends how you define 'strong' lol

 

E: Seems like they're winning../s

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hua Guofang]

US led forces couldn't defeat them in war and since then we've had three generations of Kim family leadership square in the face of US (and global) opposition. Now they're getting nukes as well.

 

Primary goal: stay in power. Achieved

 

Secondary goal; grow stronger and gain leverage. Achieved

 

 

[Kults]

7 minutes ago, Hua Guofang said:

US led forces couldn't defeat them in war and since then we've had three generations of Kim family leadership square in the face of US (and global) opposition. Now they're getting nukes as well.

 

Primary goal: stay in power. Achieved

 

Secondary goal; grow stronger and gain leverage. Achieved

 

 

All the while pissing whatever future your nation had away; priceless 

[Hua Guofang]

12 minutes ago, Kults said:

All the while pissing whatever future your nation had away; priceless 

Yeah, not the point though.

 

Having global opinion against you doesn't mean shit if you're self-sustaining as North Korea is and as Iran is, to an even greater degree. The regime will survive, the people will continue to suffer and nothing will change.

 

Iran will only shift if their merchant classes and lower-level clergy physically join the protests. I can't see that happening either.

[misteraven]

48 minutes ago, Hua Guofang said:

US led forces couldn't defeat them in war and since then we've had three generations of Kim family leadership square in the face of US (and global) opposition. Now they're getting nukes as well.

 

Primary goal: stay in power. Achieved

 

Secondary goal; grow stronger and gain leverage. Achieved

 

 

Fuck lost my whole comment and too tired to retype it, but basically... North Korea exists because the USA has largely not given a fuck about them. We toppled Iraq in 21 days with most of that being the first 48 hours and then 19 days of mop up. Since we try to maintain the appearance of not invading sovereign nations unless its a last resort that we're tasked with (and since there's no worthwhile resources worth toppling a regime and installing a puppet over), there's not been a compelling reason to prioritize them over countries that more obviously foot that bill. Think you're confusing motivation for capability.

 

Not sure they're stronger either, but maybe you can argue that with them being on the cusp of being a nuclear power. They still lack a decent delivery system and I'd argue the country is being propped by with duct tape and a citizenry that's been beaten and starved into submission for 3 generations, so think you're playing long odds if you're willing to stack your chips on North Korea against the USA. Not even sure China would be willing to go too far out of their way to go to bat for them these days.

[abrasivesaint]

I think we need to hire Ryan Reynolds and his 6 Underground team. They toppled Turgistan with a magnetic boat and a parkour kid. 

[Dirty_habiT]

I was going to say "we can't defeat NKorea with US led forces"?  Since when?  We'd fuckin blast their little tiny shit camp right off the map if we felt like it and that'd be the end of the story.

 

I don't understand all the north korean and iranian hand jobs being given here.  So I'll admit my ignorance to that.

 

edit: btw, I wrote this before reading Raven's comment.  ... but he said the same thing more or less.

[Hua Guofang]

3 hours ago, misteraven said:

Fuck lost my whole comment and too tired to retype it, but basically... North Korea exists because the USA has largely not given a fuck about them. We toppled Iraq in 21 days with most of that being the first 48 hours and then 19 days of mop up. Since we try to maintain the appearance of not invading sovereign nations unless its a last resort that we're tasked with (and since there's no worthwhile resources worth toppling a regime and installing a puppet over), there's not been a compelling reason to prioritize them over countries that more obviously foot that bill. Think you're confusing motivation for capability.

 

Not sure they're stronger either, but maybe you can argue that with them being on the cusp of being a nuclear power. They still lack a decent delivery system and I'd argue the country is being propped by with duct tape and a citizenry that's been beaten and starved into submission for 3 generations, so think you're playing long odds if you're willing to stack your chips on North Korea against the USA. Not even sure China would be willing to go too far out of their way to go to bat for them these days.

Ah, what I wrote was misleading. It should have been written thusly:

 

The US lead forces couldn't defeat them in war in the 1950s and whilst the US would win a war today, the DPRK can make victory far too costly to consider.

 

1 - DPRK has a large artillery force ranged along its southern border that brings the capital Seoul into range along with a number of other sizable cities and towns. As soon as any conflict began you must expect thousands of civilians to die with indiscriminate targetting. It is what DPRK has held the West hostage with since the Cold War days.

 

 

Read all the details here:

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-north-korea-would-retaliate#/home/error

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/10/02/why-the-north-korean-artillery-factor-makes-military-action-extremely-risky-infographic/#1e938086317e

https://www.38north.org/2019/08/vvandiepen080619/

https://www.38north.org/2019/05/melleman050819/

 

2 - You're right, DPRK does not have a reliable delivery device for a nuke warhead. But it does have enough to give it a 40% chance of landing one on CONUS and much, much higher odds of hitting US forces in ROK/Japan/Guam/Hawaii. Put yourselve in the place of a US president and ask yourself if you'd like to be the guy responsible for triggering a nuclear attack anywhere in the world, let alone on US territory.

 

Read the details here:

https://www.38north.org/2019/02/melleman022619/

https://www.38north.org/2019/10/melleman100319/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49915224

 

 

3 - Sure, the society there is tinpot and shithole. But people are dedicated/brainwashed and the military is large with some relatively capable special forces that are trained in running a guerilla campaign in both the South and the North (It is known that there are a number of them already deployed in the South in case conflict kicks off).

 

4 - China would absolutely, 100% defend DPRK. They recently began building up their deployments in the region as a response to 'fire and fury'. China fears the refugee crisis a collapsed DPRK would cause, but most importantly, they fear having a land border with a US friendly country and will do everything they can to prevent it. Right now, their week point is Taiwan and the coastal approach. Should they lose the DPRK buffer they will have to split their forces between two approaches, which they obviously will not want to do.

 

Read the arguments here:

https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/china-and-north-korea-still-lips-and-teeth/

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CT400/CT477/RAND_CT477.pdf

https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/07/opinions/china-north-korea-opinion-lind/index.html

 

Not all agree, though, some believe that China would let the Kim fall if they think they could have the strongest hand in shaping the govt of a unified peninsula:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2017-12-12/why-china-wont-rescue-north-korea

 

 

 

 

[Hua Guofang]

1 hour ago, Dirty_habiT said:

I was going to say "we can't defeat NKorea with US led forces"?  Since when?  We'd fuckin blast their little tiny shit camp right off the map if we felt like it and that'd be the end of the story.

 

I don't understand all the north korean and iranian hand jobs being given here.  So I'll admit my ignorance to that.

 

edit: btw, I wrote this before reading Raven's comment.  ... but he said the same thing more or less.

As mentioned above, I didn't word my post very well. I mean the US couldn't defeat them when they went to war in the 1950s.

 

Today the US could defeat both DPRK and Iran but it would come at a huge cost in terms of lives and money. The high cost of victory is what deters a US attack, not fear of losing.

 

In saying that, I also don't mean to imply that if they US thought they could easily win then they'd start a way. That's another discussion altogether.

[Dirty_habiT]

We have the fuckin illest weapons in the world.... and we're straight slayin mother fuckers w/ drones now..... so they can suck it.  We ain't losing nearly as many American lives to fuck up far more goat fuckers than have been lost in past battles that didn't involve drones.  You know that if we tried to do some covert ops type stuff and drop in with a revolution on Iran or DPRK then the government's military would just start killing their own citizens.  Shit, they do that already and we're not doing anything to them.  They're doing it right now as Iranian's protest their government.  They're not protesting Trump or America like the democrat leftist media wants you to believe, they're starting an upheaval that very likely going to turn things around for them in their country.

 

This is the perk of being the most technologically advanced military in the world.  We get to kick/ban people right off the earth if they don't want to play nicely with others.  DPRK and Iran are both guilty of that.

 

My point is fuck Iran's leadership and the DPRK's leadership.  If you can even call it leadership with a straight face.  I think it'd be hilarious to capture them and break them all up and send them to American prisons after tattooing titties on their backs.

 

I've said it before and I think it all the time, but I'll reiterate that 95% of all the media is so full of shit.  And no, I don't mean that "all media is full of shit".... I'm just talking about the ones with a political agenda to push.

[Dirty_habiT]

I think you're missing the part that with our technology we could literally take out every single last military asset the DPRK has in unison.  It wouldn't matter who was in range of what because all the dudes that could press buttons and their weapons would be blown to smitherines.

 

 

You know what I'm sayin fam?  They can line shit up along the South Korean border all day long and we'll just drag our giant balls across all of it.  It would quite literally go just like that.  The reason it hasn't is because they're not a threat at this time.  We saw last week what happens to those that we consider to be threats.