2020 U.S. Election

[Hua Guofang]

On 12/26/2019 at 6:27 AM, Kults said:

None of that is a smoking gun. It’s all peoples opinions of what he wanted. Same can be said for Biden and son. 

 

Its Christmas so I’m not really in the mood to go digging for links to contradict yours. 

 

On that note, Merry Xmas @Hua Guofang

I can only assume that you didn't actually read them (which is pretty understandable given Xmas and all), because nobody is passing opinion on anything - they are witness statements.

 

One guy says "The PRes. office told me to to tell Zelinskyy that he had to announce an investigation into Biden or he won't get a meeting/defence funds. And I did that on these dates at these places" - then it's a bunch of people saying "I was present on those dates at those places and it happened".

 

Not sure what you need for a smoking gun but that can't be far off. However, a smoking gun doesn't actually matter in impeachment processes. It's about 3 things: getting a Congressperson to vote based on the national interest/constitution - a congressperson voting based on what will save their seat at the next election - getting a congressperson to vote along party lines no matter what actually happened.

 

Right now it looks like the latter as most people have made their minds up regardless of what they learn (and they've mostly stopped listening anyway). So the electorate won't budge from where it is now and people will likely vote along party lines. That means Trump will not be removed from office and will claim that means he's been found guilty. But that won't be true either, it will just mean he won the vote.

 

Either way, I hope you had a good Xmas. I wrote a lot of that shit whilst I was sitting out on my back deck at about 9pm. I got a 5 month old little girl; in bed by 7:30pm leaving dad for a few beers and kicking back in the summer bushfire haze. Aside from talking politics, it was a nice peaceful way to spend the evening. Hope you made out like a bandit with the presents!

[Hua Guofang]

When you're voting and the economy is important to you, this is the longterm employment trend for you to consider.

 

Keep in mind, this number isn't a percentage of the population but absolute figures and they will naturally climb as the population grows. So when any politician takes credit for employment numbers keep in mind that they're just riding a long term trend and they need to be talking about percentages of employable age population, not absolutes numbers.

 

 

[misteraven]

The metrics used to define these numbers are a moving target so keep that in mind. Same goes for most of government reporting. 

[Kults]

3 hours ago, Hua Guofang said:

I can only assume that you didn't actually read them (which is pretty understandable given Xmas and all), because nobody is passing opinion on anything - they are witness statements.

Honestly? I don’t. You just dump a bunch of info. No one is reading all that except for maybe Fist. 

 

Instead of trying to have a conversation you try to bury people with walls of text that often times are just thinly veiled and condescending descriptions of things we’re taking about instead of actually coming with an opinion. 

 

So, no, you’re right. I don’t read your walls of text anymore. 

[Dirty_habiT]

 

[Dirty_habiT]

 

[Dirty_habiT]

 

[Hua Guofang]

4 hours ago, Kults said:

Honestly? I don’t. You just dump a bunch of info. No one is reading all that except for maybe Fist. 

 

Instead of trying to have a conversation you try to bury people with walls of text that often times are just thinly veiled and condescending descriptions of things we’re taking about instead of actually coming with an opinion. 

 

So, no, you’re right. I don’t read your walls of text anymore. 

Ha, what a bullshit excuse. Just man up and say that you don't want to be proven wrong. I even put a TL:DR at the bottom for you so you didn't have to dig through it all.

 

Meh, you're clearly just looking to spout off like you know stuff but don't want to have to back it up. I gave an opinion, I clearly said you are wrong and that I can prove it. This is just your way of avoiding the fact that you could be wrong.

 

Cool, you can have it.

[Hua Guofang]

 

At this point I get the feeling Trump is still on course to win the election, though. Mainly because the impeachment won't result in removal from office and he'll sell it as an exoneration, just like he and Barr spun the Mueller report.

Edited December 30, 2019 by Hua Guofang

[Dirty_habiT]

Yeah, Trump is "still on course".... he always has been.  It's kind "special ed" (to use your own words) of you to think anything else.  The ONLY reason you wouldn't have KNOWN this for a long time is because you've been listening to and reading dem fax put out by the fake news orgs.

 

Grip the rail.

[misteraven]

1 hour ago, Hua Guofang said:

 

At this point I get the feeling Trump is still on course to win the election, though. Mainly because the impeachment won't result in removal from office and he'll sell it as an exoneration, just like he and Barr spun the Mueller report.

You’re almost right. The impeachment will rally his base like nothing else. Meanwhile, it’ll have the opposite effect on his the base of his opposition, which still remains fragmented. Trump might not excite the undecided in the middle, but nobody running against him will either. By the time the left really wakes up to the idea that they’ll take anyone except Trump, it’ll be too late for this election cycle. 
 

What’s much more interesting a question will be 2024, assuming things hold together long enough for another one of these ridiculous election cycles stuffed with piss poor candidates. Personally I have a tough time seeing things holding together long enough for that to be the case considering the path we’re on. Can’t really predict what will happen, but believe there’s a very real chance that the wheels will come off.

 

 

[Hua Guofang]

@misteraven- I'm reading a really interesting paper on the hollowing out of democracy in the West that is relevant to what you've posted there. Will respond when I've got through that as it's a really interesting theory.

 

 

 

The issue of tariffs are likely to come up in the election, whether they are are good or bad tool for foreign policy, whether they place costs on the locals or target country and if they are actually a form of protectionism.

 

Jeff Wilson is an economist I respect (he grew up in a rough part of Sydney, a trivial but interesting point) from the Perth USAsia centre, it's a bit esoteric but makes sense if you work out how the graph operates:

 

 

 

@JDWilson08

 

 

I'll leave this timely reminder from micro-101 here: In the short-run, tariffs *inherently* impose economic costs on society. [And in the long-run, they are an unconditional subsidy to select private businesses].

 

 

[Mercer]

Damn, I’m impressed. This was the first major breakthrough classical economists made during the early days of the industrial revolution. Adam Smith himself was able to outline the net destructive nature of tariffs and his work on this subject is the centerpiece of his magnum opus that is still widely regarded as valid by every school of economic thought today. The benefits are narrow, but the harm they cause is widespread always resulting in a net loss. It’s strange that they would reappear in this day and age like they have. Normally their only championed by unions, or other cartels trying to monopolize an economic sector.

[Hua Guofang]

Yep, it's usually a protectionist measure and it's hard to watch educated people today dispute that the costs (in financial and other terms) aren't always passed on to the end consumer.

 

I still hold out on passing judgement on the current 'trade war' though as there is so much to it and I'm not too big on economics. I live in hope that Trump, Lighthizer and friends know what they're doing. I also understand the argument for decoupling and strangling elements of the Chinese economy. Again, though, I don't know enough to have an opinion on whether that's a good strategy or not because I don't know enough to be credible.

[Hua Guofang]

So Bolton has said that he'll honour a subpoena if he's called to the Senate hearing on the impeachment. 

 

It's unlikely that he'll contradict the statement his former deputy has already given on "Rudi's drug deal" with Ukraine.

 

Could be interesting. The big question is whether Trump will throw Rudi under the bus if things get to hot for him. But Rudi is an old mob prosecutor, he knows how to protect himself and Trump was raised by Cohn, so he knows that Rudi really does know where the bodies are buried.

 

Can't wait to see the Disney depiction on all of this in 2032.

Edited January 7, 2020 by Hua Guofang

[Kults]

1 hour ago, Hua Guofang said:

So Bolton has said that he'll honour a subpoena if he's called to the Senate hearing on the impeachment. 

Every last Republican will vote to throw this nonsense out on it’s ass. Best of luck 

[KILZ FILLZ]

[Hua Guofang]

 

[abrasivesaint]

Interesting to hear Bush say that. 
 

All i can think of is the look on his face when the dude threw that shoe though, haha.

[Hua Guofang]

This could go in any number of threads but we're hearing about the first trade agreement being signed between US and China. As that's being signed China is implementing this new regulation:

 

 

 

Beijing to legalise ‘theft’ of business secrets

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/beijing-to-legalise-theft-of-aussie-business-secrets/news-story/a5879ffb9e4e59dc70ad93933fd75a05

 

Companies operating in China will have to allow Chinese government access to their encrypted data, risking their trade secrets being shared with domestic competitors.

New “cyber-security” laws coming into effect in January will require every business, including foreign-owned companies, to store their data on servers located in China, and make it illegal to use encryption that cannot be read by Chinese authorities.

Former Australian cyber-­security centre director Alastair MacGibbon warned the laws were part of China’s “march ­towards online dominance and kleptomania”, while global ­accounting firm EY said the change would be “bigger than Y2K” in terms of the compliance costs involved.

The respected ChinaLaw blog, run by US law firm Harris Bricken, said no communications to or from China would be exempt from the law.

“There will be no secrets. No virtual private networks. No private or encrypted messages,” it said. “No anonymous online ­accounts. No trade secrets. No confidential data. Any and all data will be available and open to the Chinese government.”

[misteraven]

1 hour ago, Hua Guofang said:

This could go in any number of threads but we're hearing about the first trade agreement being signed between US and China. As that's being signed China is implementing this new regulation:

 

 

 

Beijing to legalise ‘theft’ of business secrets

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/beijing-to-legalise-theft-of-aussie-business-secrets/news-story/a5879ffb9e4e59dc70ad93933fd75a05

 

Companies operating in China will have to allow Chinese government access to their encrypted data, risking their trade secrets being shared with domestic competitors.

New “cyber-security” laws coming into effect in January will require every business, including foreign-owned companies, to store their data on servers located in China, and make it illegal to use encryption that cannot be read by Chinese authorities.

Former Australian cyber-­security centre director Alastair MacGibbon warned the laws were part of China’s “march ­towards online dominance and kleptomania”, while global ­accounting firm EY said the change would be “bigger than Y2K” in terms of the compliance costs involved.

The respected ChinaLaw blog, run by US law firm Harris Bricken, said no communications to or from China would be exempt from the law.

“There will be no secrets. No virtual private networks. No private or encrypted messages,” it said. “No anonymous online ­accounts. No trade secrets. No confidential data. Any and all data will be available and open to the Chinese government.”

Basically the same thing Japan did in the 1960's / 70's. Will be interesting now that business is more global, more sophisticated and arguably higher stakes. Soon automation and robotics will replace the cheap work forces that made China the powerhouse that it is, so they'll will be assed out anyways, but will be interesting to see.

[Dirty_habiT]

If only we can make kleptomaniac robots.... then they'll really be fucked.

[Hua Guofang]

4 hours ago, misteraven said:

Basically the same thing Japan did in the 1960's / 70's. Will be interesting now that business is more global, more sophisticated and arguably higher stakes. Soon automation and robotics will replace the cheap work forces that made China the powerhouse that it is, so they'll will be assed out anyways, but will be interesting to see.

If you mean Japan copied US designs, etc.? Yes, all countries steal ideas. However, Japan never had such uneven investment laws as China does. The US doesn't force shit like that on Chinese investors, bullshit doesn't come as thick as what Beijing is doing right now.

 

The Chinese economy is nowhere near as much as a labor intensive economy as it used to be. It's well on its way to moving up the value chain (partially thanks to all the IP they've stolen!!). Much of the most labor intensive stuff (such as garments, shoes, electronic assembly, etc) has already moved to Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, East Africa, etc. because the wages were growing to high for thin-margin/high-production in China. That happened in the first half of the last decade. China still has a ways to go yet, but don't think of China like a big factory like it was in the 2000s.

[abrasivesaint]

Apparently China’s down there in Mexico swiping up all that lithium. Heard that on a podcast and parroted it. I have no idea what i’m talking about.
 

Carry on. 

[Kults]

10 hours ago, Hua Guofang said:

 

 

The Chinese economy is nowhere near as much as a labor intensive economy as it used to be. It's well on its way to moving up the value chain (partially thanks to all the IP they've stolen!!). Much of the most labor intensive stuff (such as garments, shoes, electronic assembly, etc) has already moved to Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, East Africa, etc. because the wages were growing to high for thin-margin/high-production in China. That happened in the first half of the last decade. China still has a ways to go yet, but don't think of China like a big factory like it was in the 2000s.

Then why does everything I buy still have made in China stamped on it?

[misteraven]

11 hours ago, Hua Guofang said:

If you mean Japan copied US designs, etc.? Yes, all countries steal ideas. However, Japan never had such uneven investment laws as China does. The US doesn't force shit like that on Chinese investors, bullshit doesn't come as thick as what Beijing is doing right now.

 

The Chinese economy is nowhere near as much as a labor intensive economy as it used to be. It's well on its way to moving up the value chain (partially thanks to all the IP they've stolen!!). Much of the most labor intensive stuff (such as garments, shoes, electronic assembly, etc) has already moved to Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, East Africa, etc. because the wages were growing to high for thin-margin/high-production in China. That happened in the first half of the last decade. China still has a ways to go yet, but don't think of China like a big factory like it was in the 2000s.

Japan stole the black and white TV from RCA way back when. We didn't give a fuck cause we were on the verge of rolling out color television. My understanding of the dynamic was that at the time Japan's copyright and trade mark laws favored domestic submissions. For intellectual property rights, there's a review process that is made public so that competitors have the chance to defend their own IP against that which is being registered. As I understand, Japan allowed for a much longer vetting period to foreign applicants, which gave domestic competitors a window in which to file an application and beat them to the punch. But yes, you are correct in that China has proven its ability to conduct cyber warfare and espionage, which is a tool unavailable to Japan during that period and likewise, it would seem that a propensity to steal ideas is culturally acceptable in China. They seem to have a genuine confusion as to why counterfeiting is wrong from what I've read and observed.

 

And indeed as places like the USA move exponentially ahead in automation and robotics, the advantages of cheap labor disappear. In fact, we'll see a time shortly where the idea of a human being assembling anything with either be looked at as antiquated or reserved for aspirational brands that double down on packaging it as craftsmanship and heritage. China will lose that race IMO. Only reason we're not further along in that regard is that our economy can't handle the significant unemployment that'll result from it, so the tech has been artificially held back. But as the dummies in the service economy fight for a 'living wage', they'll accelerate the process of having their skilled (and especially) unskilled labor replaced by robots.

[Hua Guofang]

7 hours ago, Kults said:

Then why does everything I buy still have made in China stamped on it?

Sure, the things China makes have gone from cheap footwear and basic garments to smart phones, 5G systems, laptops and tablets, high-tech plant machinery, aircraft, electronic cars and bikes, medical equipment, etc. etc.

 

As I said, they're moving up the value chain, they're not stopping producing things. The original point was that automation will screw China because their economy runs on cheap labour. My point is that  as time goes on, automation will impact China in similar ways that it impacts advanced economies like our own because their economy has already modernised to a large degree and is rapidly continuing down that path. It's the end goal of China's protectionist policies.

[Hua Guofang]

She's a journalist, not sure how credible she is though:

 

Andrea González-Ramírez

@andreagonram

 

My parents just told me Bloomberg is running ads on Puerto Rico’s local TV. They say he is the only candidate so far. Reminder that Puerto Ricans in the island can vote in presidential primaries, but not the general election.

[Kults]

Just now, Hua Guofang said:

Sure, the things China makes have gone from cheap footwear and basic garments to smart phones, 5G systems, laptops and tablets, high-tech plant machinery, aircraft, electronic cars and bikes, medical equipment, etc. etc.

 

As I said, they're moving up the value chain, they're not stopping producing things. The original point was that automation will screw China because their economy runs on cheap labour. My point is that  as time goes on, automation will impact China in similar ways that it impacts advanced economies like our own because their economy has already modernised to a large degree and is rapidly continuing down that path. It's the end goal of China's protectionist policies.

Im looking for something cheap with Made In China stamped on it at my desk. Pretty much EVERYTHING made of cheap plastic at my desk is made there. They make more advanced stuff now, sure. They havent stopped producing cheap crap though

[Hua Guofang]

Didn't say they'd stopped but that it's moving away from China and has been for almost a decade - I know this as I was part of a study that tracked the cheapest items such as footware, textiles/garments, assembly, etc. in 2014, so I've seen the data first hand. But don't listen to me, here's the economist saying the same thing back in 2011:

 

 

China wage rises bring shift in production

China may be famous as the workshop of the world, but one Hong Kong lingerie maker has found Thailand a more alluring destination, as companies increasingly shift production to countries with lower wages. Top Form International, which supplies companies such as Walmart from its south China factories, has been forced to face a new reality in China as workers increasingly demand higher wages.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/0b5b63de-d860-11e0-8f0a-00144feabdc0

 

The end of cheap China

What do soaring Chinese wages mean for global manufacturing?

https://www.economist.com/business/2012/03/10/the-end-of-cheap-china

 

 

 

Here's more from across the decade and from across a number of business news outlets:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/chinese-wages-rise-made-in-china-isnt-so-cheap-anymore.html

 

 

The Consequences of Chinese Manufacturing Migration

Chinese manufacturing has been moving south east to Asian countries like Vietnam. This process is predicted to create major changes to the economies of South East Asia’s countries.

https://www.insideover.com/economy/the-consequences-of-chinese-manufacturing-migration.html

 

 

Manufacturers Are Considering Leaving China. But It Isn’t All Because of the Trade War

https://fortune.com/2019/06/07/us-china-trade-war-manufacturers-leaving/

 

In a poll released by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) and its counterpart in Shanghai last month, roughly 40% of 250 surveyed firms said they were “considering or have relocated manufacturing facilities outside of China.”