Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 Oman leader dies after long time on throne. Not completely clear who the new leader will be and that increases the chances of internal conflict. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50902476 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KILZ FILLZ Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Oh man. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty_habiT Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Hua Guofang said: I don't doubt the veracity of those vids but I think we have to prepare ourselves for an age where you can rarely believe what you see. Surely it can't be hard for a small group of informed and resourced folk to quickly (24-48hrs) create a suite of convincing fake visuals to then drip out on the net. Even if they are disproved a week later it won't matter because once the narrative has taken hold you can't stop it. And just think how much easier it is to make up lies in text. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 There's something to this line of reasoning, IMO Eric Van R @EricVanRythoven I’m seeing lots of smart people on Twitter make the case that Trump did not cause Iran to shoot down Flight 752. I’m not sure this case is so simple. My problem with these takes is that they reduce responsibility to an indivisible object. You are either responsible or you are not. You are condition 1 or 0. Guilty or not guilty. I don’t think that’s how it works. People can be culpable to greater or lesser degrees, and this culpability is often proportional the power and influence of the actors involved. Put another way: if responsibility really was always this indivisible object it would be really fucking hard to talk about responsibility for climate change where clearly we are all involved, but obviously some are more responsible than others. Back to Flight 752: I’m fine with saying Trump is nowhere near as culpable in this tragedy as either the Iranian government or those pressing the button. In a just world the families of the victims would see the latter go on trial. But to say Trump’s culpability in this series of events is effectively zero would require an extraordinary act of historical revisionism. It would be tantamount to placing our hands over our eyes and ears. Trump chose to be emphatically hostile to Iran, he chose to withdraw from the JCPOA, he chose to recruit anti-Iran extremists into his administration, he chose to have the most Islamophobic administration in history, and he chose to constantly escalate. Trump made a series of choices that helped create the context that allowed for Flight 752 to be shot down. Does that make him directly responsible? Absolutely not. Is he blameworthy in a different degree? Almost certainly. In the end I’m really goddamn uneasy about the "Trump has zero responsibility" narrative because it erases just how profoundly poor his judgment is and we end up rehabilitating his image for the history books. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty_habiT Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Oh I didn't even realize this is a thing because I stay off the moron "news outlets" (twitter, IG, fb, etc). Trump 100% didn't "make" anyone do anything. Iran shot that shit down on their own. That's absolutely FUCKING crazy to think that you can blame Trump for that. Sounds like some little brother shit to me. "My little brother made me punch him." Fuckin crock every time, no amount of justification will change my mind on that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 So @Hua Guofangif youre tailgating me and I need to suddenly hit the breaks and you slam into me, it's my fault? E: or wait, better yet, you swerve to avoid hitting me and plough into 176 people, my fault? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty_habiT Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 they admitted they did it right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty_habiT Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 That's that eye for an eye shit going on.... you did this so you made me have to do this. That shit NEVER flew when I was a kid, not sure why it would fly if you're an adult. If that's the case I can go back and run anyone I don't like off the road because the slighted me at some point in the past and it would be "justified". I'm like fuming right now at how anyone could even suggest this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 @Kults@Dirty_habiT- I'm not saying I buy into it but that it's something to be considered. The analogies of cars swerving & punching little brothers don't seem to be workable because you're taking the complexity of geopolitics and military operations and reducing down to a binary example. I don't think it's a valid comparison. I guess the argument is along the lines of unintended consequences and that if you decide to commence hostilities with another nation, there will undoubtedly be some negative unintended consequences. No military planner would ever say any different and will always warn a leader that escalation comes with costs. The questions is, does any leader who decides to escalate, understanding the law of unintended consequences, then have to take some level of ownership of those consequences. Take Trump, Khameini and the Ukrainian jet out of the picture and just consider the question in terms of presidents, prime ministers and kings - what level of responsibility to they own for the consequences of escalation? I don't know the answer, but I think it's an interesting question. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty_habiT Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I get it Hua, but I'm saying.... Trump had NOTHING to do with someone hitting the "fire" button on their panel that shot that plane down. That was 100% the fault of the people and the command who told the people that pressed the button to do it. You can't blame something on someone else after the fact. I mean seriously, I could just start knocking teeth out because people looked at me sideways in public if that were the case. That's not fair to justify some crazy action like that because someone else did something else unrelated. I'm just not buying it, I get what you're saying but I don't agree at all. I don't think Trump owes any apologies to anyone that died on that jet due to Iran firing at it and shooting it down. 100% that wouldn't hold up in court with anything else and it wouldn't hold up here either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 Another example would be the Obama drone strategy that is constantly derided for creating more terrorists than it killed. If Obama was legitimately targeting terror actors and accepting that some civilians might be killed (as always is in conflict), is he to blame for the family and friends of the dead radicalising. I'd say yes that he is, but it's still potentially an acceptable cost of doing business. If same logic is transferred to Trump and this situation it would be that Trump does own the tragedy but losses are part of doing business and being a 'wartime' leader. Again, not saying I fall either side of the fence on this. I'm still trying to think through it all. Ethical shit hurts my head. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Dirty_habiT said: That's that eye for an eye shit going on.... you did this so you made me have to do this. Do we really have to get into this one? See: “War on Terrorism.” Also, this doesn’t work because they didn’t HAVE to shoot down the plane, they chose to, in a heightened sense of defense, panic and tension. He doesn’t need to apologize, he did not push the button. Iran should have and could have checked what the fuck they were shooting at before hitting the button, but his actions directly set motions into effect that resulted in the plane being shot down somewhere in the chain of events. Edited January 11, 2020 by abrasivesaint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Dirty_habiT said: I'm just not buying it, I get what you're saying but I don't agree at all. I don't think Trump owes any apologies to anyone that died on that jet due to Iran firing at it and shooting it down. 100% that wouldn't hold up in court with anything else and it wouldn't hold up here either. YEah, I certainly won't say you're wrong either. One thing though, holding a level of responsibility for something doesn't always mean you owe anyone an apology either. You can knowingly escalate because you have no choice but to do so and know there will be unintended consequences. But you have no other choice because of the strategic circumstances. You own the consequences but you aren't responsible for them. Ah fuck, I don't know. Hate ethics. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty_habiT Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I'd argue, in that instance, that "Obama was doing it wrong". If all Obama did was kill some low level dorks, then that's not the same as beheading a regime. Trump actually fucked off a high up leader which is WAY more powerful. If you take these little (obama) pot shots on a regime it's like just stirring the nest up with America's dick. Trump knocked the whole tree down, bee nest and all. Kinda hard to be a bee nest when you're shit's on the ground. I know that's not the best analogy but it's fitting for me in my head. I think that's the major difference here. The effect of the actions is vastly different. Notice how we have made only one strike, this isn't some big campaign "against terrorism". We're not show boating and making a "thing" out of this. We just fucked off the asshole. We accomplished the mission, the bees are all pissed but they have no leader or direction now..... and now they have to figure out who's going to be the leader of retards.... which takes away from any terror type activities. I think we made the right choice. This dude was an asshole and we cucked the shit out of him and his regime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said: Do we really have to get into this one? See: “War on Terrorism.” Also, this doesn’t work because they didn’t HAVE to shoot down the plane, they chose to, in a heightened sense of defense, panic and tension. He doesn’t need to apologize, he did not push the button. Iran should have and could have checked what the fuck they were shooting at before hitting the button, but his actions directly set motions into effect that resulted in the plane being shot down somewhere in the chain of events. But how much ownership is there for unintended consequences when it's impossible to foresee them? I think it might come down to whether there really is an imperative to escalate. If, as they are saying, that the admin had no chance but to hit QS, then they had no choice but to act and they are hostage to the situation. But if they escalated for political reasons rather than strategic, then maybe they do own some responsibility for what happens afterward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) Example: (this is a true story i was a part of.) Fight breaks out outside of a bar. This was a large downtown event in the city, food trucks and music everywhere, that sort of thing. Cops show up and are arresting folks. One kid, completely oblivious to the situation, as a large crowd had formed, strolls directly through the crowd and pops out close enough to pat one of the arresting officers on the back. The cop panics thinking the kid is attempting something and pulls mace and maces the entire crowd. He swept left to right and maced absolutely everyone in sight, including myself. Was this the fault of the kid who started the initial fight? No. It was the cops fault for macing everyone in a state of panic. Would this have happened had the original fight not broken out? Absolutely not. Do i think the original “fighters” should apologize to everyone? No. edit: Is there some degree of responsibility of the original fighters in the events that followed? Yes. Their actions set forth motions thats resulted in an entire crowd of innocent people being maced. Edited January 11, 2020 by abrasivesaint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty_habiT Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I will agree that Trump can say, "Yes, those dumbasses made a mistake and shot a plane down that they shouldn't have because they were scared of more attacks from us and made the wrong choice." But even then, I don't see how because we made it pretty clear that we did what we wanted to do and that was "the end of it". It's kind of like you do all this shit, catch your beat down, and then shut up about it..... or continue on with the same behavior that made you catch the beat down. I think Iran is smart enough to know that we'll fuck them up if they do any fly shit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty_habiT Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said: Example: (this is a true story i was a part of.) Fight breaks out outside of a bar. This was a large downtown event in the city, food trucks and music everywhere, that sort of thing. Show show up and are arresting folks. One kid, completey oblivious to the situation, as a large crowd had formed, strolls directly through the crowd and pops out close enough to pat one of the arresting officers on the back. The cop panics thinking the kid is attempting something and pulls mace and maces the entire crowd. He swept left to right and maced absolutely everyone in sight, including myself. Was this the fault of the kid who started the initial fight? No. It was the cops fault for macing everyone in a state of panic. Would this have happened had the original fight not broken out? Absolutely not. Do i think the original “fighters” should apologize to everyone? No. That sounds shitty.... I'm sorry that happened to you. I don't think the kid that patted the cop on the back is at fault either. 100% on the cop for going nuts when he didn't have to. It was something he thought about and then decided to do..... or maybe he just did it without thinking, and in that case I'd call into question about whether or not he's fit to be a cop. I think "fast thinking" is WAY more important than "acting on instinct" when you're in charge of things that can end a life. That cop didn't execute fast thinking, he went on instinct and that was a mistake IMO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I would agree. @Dirty_habiTand i’m fine it was just a little mace, thanks though, haha. I actually almost got myself arrested as a result because the cop continued yelling for people to “get back,” yet no one could see. So i stood my ground and called him an asshole and almost got myself arrested as a result. Thankfully a friend of mine hadn’t been hit that bad and pulled me away from the situation, haha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Something else i just thought of was this. I don’t know how it is in other states so i’ll only speak from experience in my home state.. A person goes to the bar, gets drunk, and drives home. If that person gets arrested, crashes, or worst case crashes in kills someone, one of the questions you are asked by police is where you were drinking. It is investigated and if it is proven through the timeline of events that you directly left that bar and drove, the bar you had been can get fined as a result for allowing you to drink to that excess, technically a bartender is supposed to cut you off if you are intoxicated. Now let’s get real, that rarely happens. You go to a bar and get hammered and they feed you drinks all night. It’s your responsibility to stop. The bar didn’t make you drink, they didn’t make you drive and cause any of the events that happened after you got behind the wheel. That bar is still held to some degree of responsibility for having a hand in you getting to that level and not stopping you, as they could have and were supposed to stop serving you. That could just be the liberal state i hail from though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 As posted up the page: Iran blames human error for 'unintentionally' shooting down Ukrainian plane Updated 12 minutes ago https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/iran-admits-to-shooting-down-ukrainian-plane/11860508 Iran has announced its military "unintentionally" shot down a Ukrainian jetliner, killing all 176 aboard. Key points: A statement read on state TV said those responsible for the crash would be held accountable The Boeing 737 went down during take-off from Tehran just hours after Iran attacked US forces Officials says 82 Iranians, at least 63 Canadians and 11 Ukrainians died in the crash Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted "human error" was to blame for the downing of the passenger jet. "Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations," he said. A statement read on state television said the airliner had flown close to a sensitive military site and parties responsible for shooting down the jet would be held accountable. The statement said the plane was mistaken for a "hostile target" after it turned toward a "sensitive military centre" of the Revolutionary Guard. The military was at its "highest level of readiness," it said, amid the heightened tensions with the US. "In such a condition, because of human error and in a unintentional way, the flight was hit," the statement said. It apologised for the disaster and said it would upgrade its systems to prevent such "mistakes" in the future. So there it is, the last time Tehran can ever harp on about the US downing an Iranian civilian flight in the 1980s. Also, two civilian aircraft full of peeps shot down in 5 years by Russian SAMs. All Putin's fault then..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Everything is Putin’s fault. 9-11 was a Clinton/Putin collab. You heard it here folks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Send in 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 So Trump just told Fox News that US forces in Syria are there to take the oil. There's a vid of him saying it here (even after he's corrected that the troops are only protecting the oil, he says that maybe they'll take it too), but I can't work out how to get the vid working on here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 There you go, it worked in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Whoops Freudian slip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) He just validated every conspiracy argument for war in the middle east in 1 fuck up of words, haha. god damn hilarious. Edited January 11, 2020 by abrasivesaint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) I used to work for a guy who said that leaders are largely irrelevant because the global forces they deal with present them all with the same choices and because idiots can't rise to the very top, they all end up making the most rational decisions and act pretty much the same way. Pivotal moments such as the Cuban missile crisis where individual situations rely on the leader will show differences. But long term stuff like foreign policy and US in the Mid East, will see every president act the same way. Remeber, Bush was going to get out of the Mid East as well until he was dragged back in by 9/11. Just a theory, not sure I agree or not. But that video of Trump saying over and over again that he's going to take the oil certainly makes me think about it. , Edited January 11, 2020 by Hua Guofang 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 Fuck me, FARS is the state broadcaster in Iran Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fist 666 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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