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Hua Guofang

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Everything posted by Hua Guofang

  1. Second one is awesome. Would love to see it with a single colour fill to make the outline really define itself.
  2. Just going back to this point, I certainly agree that crypto has a great deal more potential for increasing the power of Mr and Ms E. Joe in terms of currency, trading and transactions. I very much like the idea of removing banks from as much of life as we can. No argument from me here. Again, I'm not supporting what the USD is backed by or saying it's a good idea, just that it's backed by something. And in saying that, whilst I agree that there are inherent problems..., big problems, with the ES economy it is not comparable to China in terms of confidence. The US economy has existed as it is since WWII and lots of people have been able to invest in it securely and make lots of money. Yes, the Fed is no transparent but it is largely predictable..., largely. And it's that stability and predictability that makes it viable. People don't necessarily care so much for ethics and values such as that they prefer predictability more than anything when it comes to economies and the US does have that enough to be a sound investment. As for the the US being the global standard, that gives the US a great deal of power in the world. It can unilaterally level sanctions against any country or organisation in the world given that if you trade you have to touch the US system in some shape or form. China is doing it's best to raise the RMB to a global standard, which will take a very long time but they are doing it starting with currency swaps and the like, so they can firstly, insulate themselves a bit from US economic power and secondly, to have that power themselves. Yeah, for sure. However, when it comes to power, which every state is based upon, you're mistaken to involve values in any kind of analysis. States very rarely do things because they should, the do them because they can and because it benefits their interests. A lot of the time what benefits the state aligns wit what benefits the nation (social contract, etc.) but a lot of the time it doesn't, of course. And in international relations, honesty is not the currency. Supporting the national interest is the only game in town there and you're only banging your head against the wall if you focus on things like hypocrisy, duplicity and deceit as unfortunately these are the standard and the tools of the trade. Nope, never said that and don't know why you're making out that I did. All I've said is that the USD is an IOU or a share in the US economy/national wealth and it's potential and thus the USD is backed by something. I'm not saying if that is a good or bad fact or if it should be that way or not. I'm just saying that is a fact, and it is.
  3. There is no debate. During WWII Bretton Woods started the move away from the gold standard and in 1971 the USD became a fiat currency, as Misteraven as detailed with clarity and accuracy. there is no debate so please, less talk, more read - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system And it totally WAS The root of what you were saying - The value of gold or any precious metal is determined by supply/demand. The same rules govern cryptocurrency and there's no way to "create gold" or "create bitcoins" without expending something that costs resources to do it. - You're saying that because the USD is linked to gold and gold is a finite resource just like BTC and both require expenditure to 'mine' then they are similar in nature. The problem with that argument is, as Misteraven has demonstrated, the USD is not backed by gold and has not been since before you were born.
  4. Fair question and there are many elements but the big one is risk. The Yen/USD/AUD/etc is low risk compared to the RMB, for example. Size of economy is not a reliable base for confidence. Debts levels, political stability, history, transparent political processes, arable land per square meter per population, national infrastructure, education curriculum and standards and ranking of universities, number of patents granted per year per capita, terms of trade, etc. etc. etc. It's all about how much you can be confident in a particular leadership, econ policy and global environment. Regarding China's debt, you need to look into that a bit more. Their household debt and business debt to income ratio is alarming and their national banking system is overwhelmed with non-performing loans. They have a whole shadow banking system, for FFS. Let's look at three glaring examples of how much risk exists in the Chinese economy: The illegal export of energy by State Owned Enterprises to avoid price caps for the local energy market - State run companies that were set up to provide fuel to the nation have to sell to the local market at capped rates so the peeps dont' get pissed off and expensive fuel prices. Th Chinese oil companies can't operate a loss so they started exporting and a national fuel shortage was the result. Government cracked down on exporting and the oil companies said "yeah yeah, sure sure" continued exporting and hid their profits by putting their returns in the national shadow banking system. Yep, there is a whole banking system worth hundreds of billions..., maybe trillions...., and that's the point, it's immeasurable. That means the second/first largest economy is unable to be understood making confidence in the economy a matter of chance. Asset Management Companies. When China joined the WTO they had to open their banking system up to foreign investment. Given that China is a largely centrally managed economy it has a massive amount of SOEs that receive loans to support their loss making enterprises to simply keep people employed. In order to hid those non-performing loans the banks sold off all their debt to the AMCs who continue to roll over and roll over that debt which only continues to balloon and eat like a cancer into the economy because they are fucking huge. Local debt and "financial vehicles". The provinces in China were never allowed to raise their own capital with debt. So instead of selling bonds at the local level they created these "financial vehicles" that had implicit links to the provincial govt that sold debt. The implication was that the debt was guaranteed by the state, so you can't lose, the debt will always be honoured. However these investments were allocated to roads that went nowhere, replicas of the White House, bridges that fell down and most common of all, grandiose govt office and junkets/banquets/Audis/hookers/etc for govt officials. That money has gone but the debt remains. Where did they go to support this habit.......? the Shadow banking system. The Chinese economy has little to no experience of open markets save the last 30 odd years. It has a single party authoritarian govt and policy is made in secret. Do they know what they are doing and can we have faith that they are experienced enough to transform a state run economy to a market economy? No. Can you measure the Chinese economy with any semblance of accuracy..., can the Chinese even measure their own economy when there is a whole shadow banking system? No. Is the Chines economy a known quantity? No. Is the Chinese economy stable? No. Is the Chinese economy predictable? No. etc etc etc...... The size of the Chinese GDP is probably bigger than the USA. Chinese GDP per capita places it in company with most West African failed states. When taking in the fragility and unpredictability of the Chinese economy compared with very well known quantities such as the Yen or the Yen, USD or even the AUD it's obvious why these currencies are worth more than the RMB. Then there is the issue of convertibility, the issue of openness to foreign investment, the predictability of the legal systems of each country, the level of investment in the current rules based order and prominent multilateral economic structures, etc. etc. There are a mountain of reasons why the USD/Yen/AUD/etc are less risky than the RMB and why they are in higher demand pushing the exchange rate up. Not saying that Japan and the US have problems, the GFC and lost decade are more than we need to prove that the US and Japan, respectively, have their own cancers. However, compared to China they are still, far, far, far, far less risky investments than the RMB.
  5. Dude, you are totally reading something I'm not writing. I'm not saying I like it, trust it want it or that I'm even passing any kind of value judgement at all. I'm only saying that national currencies, of ANY country with a floating currency is an investment in the viability of that national economy. The central and ONLY point I am making is that currencies ARE backed by something and that is the net worth and potential of the applicable national economy. You have a point to make regards monetary/fiscal/economic policy in the US and I don't have a problem with that point. I just have no idea why you keep on trying to have that discussion with me when it's not what I'm talking about or relevant to the point that I was making that currencies are backed by something (whether that something is good or not is irrelevant to this point).
  6. Ok..... You own a part of the national economy, by whichever way anyone sees it to be determined/defined/divined. Bottom line is that the currency is backed by something, it's doesn't float in the air (ok, it floats on a group of faceless old white men who manipulate the world, if you'd like) and it can be measured against something to define it's value as perceived by the market.
  7. That's just another way of saying what I said (without going into the rest of your post regards the Fed, etc.).
  8. Shit, I've got some flics of Vilnius from the early 2000s on an old photobucket account somewhere. Might try and dig them up. Don't think they belong in this thread though, like that vid above....
  9. Yeah, not big on the wheat side of things myself but was given a sack of grain so I threw 350gm into the mash to see what it was like. Also used whilfloc and the junk is already above the tap in the fermenter, not sure how accurate the OG will be when the sample is 30% crud.
  10. Still confused as to why the U.N. has it's official workout thread on a graf website.....
  11. Knocking up a quick pale, partial mash with Marris Otter and wheat. Hop sched is a bunch of cascade, mosaic and chinook (bunch of half used packets that I'm getting rid of..., kind of like the piece you do with all your half empties and quarter fulls just to get rid of them). Will dry hop with a pile of Amarillo. Will be my summer's lament, given the time it matures.
  12. Do the terms liberal and conservative even have meaning anymore?
  13. That's top notch. Who is it? Not sure how it reads - Akamino?
  14. Rainy holidays on the coast. Might as well have stayed home, brewed some beer and got some reading done.
  15. Make with the smash or trash pic, or is that what the ps-no is for?
  16. Ok, I’ll be straight up with you, I want something nice.
  17. It's funny, out of those four and probably my last ten posts, the one that I'd rather paint than all the other is that super-simple ACHE at the top of my post today. I don't know why but the more simple it is the more I like it.
  18. That's not really true though. A unit of currency for each nation is essentialy a sharre in that nation, which includes everything from fixed/capital goods (infrastructure, defence forces, emergency services, etc) to population, regulatory systems, education system, etc., The potential of that nation to grow its value is quantified by international exchange rates, etc. One US Dollar is one share of the United States. It is backed by a whole nation and it can increase and decrease in value based on the economic viability of that nation. Simple and crude but that's what money is. It used to be backed by gold but apart from the industrial uses of gold it's value is based on a value that is aggregated from a large amount of subjective opinions. Intrinsically gold has no use to me at all. I'm not an industrialist and I don't wear it (I fail at hip hop...). So the value of gold to me is largely based on uncertain factors such as the will of others to possess, which is driven by the will of others to possess it. I'd say a national economy is a much more measurable and tangible backing than what we see for gold. Thanks for posting that vid on block chain, I'm starting to grasp it now.
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