North Korea Conflict

[christo-f]

they barely have electricity, they cant shoot a nuke or a chemical warhead

 

Really? How do you account for all the missiles that have been fired over the last two months?

 

Secondly, chem warheads are not restricted to missiles, they can easily be loaded on to arty rounds for the about 15 000 long range artillery pieces dispersed north of the 38th. Chem and bio warheads are not difficult to manufacture, all.

 

A lot of the country may not have regular supplies of electricity..., or food, but that does not imply that the military and security establishments don't. Simple night time sat pics show the defense/govt-party/security have constant energy supply.

[the_gooch]

WW3...here we come.

[Silba]

I dont think we'll be thrusted into WW3 right away, but if we do go to war with N.Korea, then WW3 shouldnt be far away

[FuckDaFakes]

Telo you are the man.

 

ChristoF there aint no reason to try and belittle people.

 

Ive honestly lost the majpority of interset of this thread because there is no point in talking about it because nothing will come of it.

 

I mean if we were to go to war with nk it would end in ww3, no doubt.

 

So this thread is pontless in my eyes...All aspects have been covered and now we are just repeating ourselves

 

 

 

Thread now officially sucks !

[christo-f]

What, so it's alright for you to say I'm naive, narrow minded and should open my eyes. That along with pretty silly reasoning for your position and I'm not allowed to have a go back at you?

 

Sorry dude, thread only sucks because you're being immature in both your behaviour and your opinion and you don't like it when it's pointed out to you.

 

So, back to the grown up talk....

 

Apparently all but the top security and intelligence apparatuses are completely unaware of the power transition taking place in DPRK right now.

[R@ndomH3ro]

Really? How do you account for all the missiles that have been fired over the last two months?

 

Secondly, chem warheads are not restricted to missiles, they can easily be loaded on to arty rounds for the about 15 000 long range artillery pieces dispersed north of the 38th. Chem and bio warheads are not difficult to manufacture, all.

 

A lot of the country may not have regular supplies of electricity..., or food, but that does not imply that the military and security establishments don't. Simple night time sat pics show the defense/govt-party/security have constant energy supply.

 

Those missiles that they have fired have failed to meet any of their intented target marks, you and I know that.

 

Also you know that North Korea has no will or means to attack. They are in poverty and lack a lot of what is needed to sustain a fight.

 

Also you know that all these missle launches are just a front for attention from a crazed leader.

 

I am pretty sure we both read the same reports, but I am not all caught up in Asia.

[viperface]

I am pretty convinced that NK as a whole nation is piss poor for a major part because of it's army. Meaning they make a huge effort to make sure they pack a punch now and in the future: they have stocks of fuel and valid weaponry that only require some maintenance+training of the troops. Military drills and practice are cheap because they don't need to pay anyone shit.

 

Also it doesn't take much to actually sustain a fight, basically just angry soldiers with AKs and food. NK probably has alot better military in all fields of warfare (from organization to training, moreale and equipment) than any nation US has fought against recently, making it's military strength relatively adequate.

 

US warfare is based on overwhelming superiority combined with popular support of war. The former would be challenged by NK's military and latter is difficult to build from scratch, after two unsuccessful/ongoing operations against exponentially weaksauce opponents in comparison.

 

This is the reason why the NK issue hasn't been erased yet and the regime remains.

[christo-f]

Those missiles that they have fired have failed to meet any of their intented target marks, you and I know that.

 

Also you know that North Korea has no will or means to attack. They are in poverty and lack a lot of what is needed to sustain a fight.

 

Also you know that all these missle launches are just a front for attention from a crazed leader.

 

I am pretty sure we both read the same reports, but I am not all caught up in Asia.

 

The three stage Taepodong-2 failed to separate at the third stage and also failed to launch the small satellite P'yang claimed to be carried by the rocket, that is true. But the short to medium range rocket that they've launched into the sea of Japan haven't all been failures. They are all of basic SCUD design and have been used in a number of theaters before without failing. There will be another Taepodong launch soon, we'll see how that one goes.

 

On the second point, I agree 100%. Their greatest military asset they have is a mass of long range arty aimed at Seoul dug in and in caves that only surprise carpet bombing could minimise to acceptable levels.

 

Thied point I only partially agree. KJI is dying and he is creating space around DPRK whilst he sorts out his own house for succession. Play the crazy, unpredictable act and people will back for for a while. However, DPRK does very little testing on its rockets before they are deployed for use so I'd also suggest that along with trying to look pissed off and scary they are also firing a lot of their short/mid range stuff off now to collect as much data as they can. Theatrics and testing, IMO.

 

One thing that must be assumed and planned around is that they have an arty deployed chem capability. Too much indicating that this is the case and has been this way for at least 5 years.

 

Another thing that I would suggest too is that an invasion of that country would be a shit fight of Iraqian proportions. Not only does that country have tunnels coming out of their wazoo but they have apparently been training in guerilla/insurgency style tactics lately and mass producing shaped charges en masse.

[george jetson]

there's absolutely no way north korea will ever invade the south. its just simply not a battle they are capable of winning, and the few with brains in that country realize that. their military, although quite large gets no training what so ever. they spend all their time farming their own food. thats a proven fact. their air force get no training either, due to a lack of fuel and spare parts for their planes. the only thing north korea does have is quality commando teams which could be a problem for the south but none that would ever result in the loss of a war.

 

at the same time i feel that no matter what north korea does; missile tests, nuclear weapon tests, tough talk will result in the US doing nothing. i think the US military is praying nothing happens because our own forces are streched so far out with iraq and afghanistan that to fight a large war in korea would be so difficult to do. i just think that north korea is going to continue to talk tough and detonate nuclear weapons and we will continue to do nothing, until one day there is a revolution in that country and the regime is toppled. that could take another 100 years though.

[christo-f]

I agree with 99% of what you've said here ^^^^ except for one thing.

 

They will continue to test nukes until they weaponise (which will take years) or until they are stopped. I'm getting closer and closer to thinking that it may be left up to China to to stop it too. Part of me thinks that the US would be happy for DPRK to have 4-8 nukes. The missile defence systems are looking more and more capable of of taking out multiple missile launches around the korean and Japanese regions. If DPRK gets nukes then Japan and ROK militarise that will draw China's attention away from expanding its navy (which threatens the US in the mid-long term) and focus on its own regional arms race/coastal defence.

 

That could work in the US interest. IT only means that then Japan and ROK may become potential competitors down the track too.

 

Good post though ^^^^!!

[george jetson]

gotta remember that NK has no missle silo system/submarines or anything of the sort. all the missles they have require them to be moved by train (which can easily be detected by satilites), then be fuled at the launch site (takes about and hour), then succesfully launched. i feel that the US would be able to take any missile like that out with an airstrike with in that amount of time (considering that we have tons of air force bases in the area in ROK, japan, okinawa, guam etc). so no matter what i feel that the NK military threat is nonexistant. they may cause casualties, but in the end i think they would get wiped out. remember that iraq in 1990 had either the 4-5th largest military on the planet, and they had pretty much the exact same equipment as NK has now. only difference is that we have the US military of 2009

[christo-f]

That's only the Taepodong ICBM that has to be transported by train and they are still liquid fueled so prepping them actually takes days. However, the US troops that you mention in ROK and Japan (which includes a nuclear powered air craft carrier) are well within range of Nodongs and Hwasong-6&7s which don't need to be transported by train, they can be fired from mobile launchers, etc.

 

As was mentioned before by some one else, proliferation is also a pretty large concern of the US and other nations.

 

Anyway, as I was saying before about the DPRK nuke thing possibly aiding the US in their competition with China, here's what I was talking about:

 

 

Defense Plan Calls for Greater Firepower But Less Troops

Chosun Ilbo

 

 

 

The military will reduce its troop size but equip itself with far greater firepower, according to the Defense Ministry's revised version of the Defense Reform 2020 plan announced Friday.

 

With North Korea's nuclear program and missiles posing a clear danger, South Korea plans to upgrade combat capability with high-tech military hardware which can strike targets anywhere in the North with surgical precision.

 

It will add to its arsenal an early warning radar to detect imminent ballistic missile attacks and adopt a surface-to-air guided missile defense system as well as buying ship-to-air interceptor missiles, to name a few. The plan is to cost close to W600 trillion over the next 10 years (US$1=W1,248).

 

But the military force is to be scaled down to 510,000 soldiers from the current 680,000. The proposal takes account of the transfer of full control of South Korean troops to Seoul from the U.S. in 2012.

 

Also under the plan, a new unit of peacekeeping forces will be created aimed at rapid deployment to troubled regions overseas at the request of the UN. The 3,000-strong unit consists of about 900 special forces soldiers and up to 2,000 support personnel recruited from almost all branches of the military.

 

The regiment-sized unit will be led by troops trained for counter-terrorism missions. Depending on the nature of deployment, up to 1,000 soldiers can be dispatched for a mission. When the unit is formed, the government will be able to send a contingent overseas within a month or two months of the call. In the past, it could take between three and six months from the recruiting of troops and National Assembly approval until actual deployment.

[TommyPillfingers]

every morning i wake up hoping to see that we have finally nuked these bastards into oblivion. these niggas is crazy yo, bout to get bombed back to the stone age.

[george jetson]

That's only the Taepodong ICBM that has to be transported by train and they are still liquid fueled so prepping them actually takes days. However, the US troops that you mention in ROK and Japan (which includes a nuclear powered air craft carrier) are well within range of Nodongs and Hwasong-6&7s which don't need to be transported by train, they can be fired from mobile launchers, etc.

 

As was mentioned before by some one else, proliferation is also a pretty large concern of the US and other nations.

 

Anyway, as I was saying before about the DPRK nuke thing possibly aiding the US in their competition with China, here's what I was talking about:

 

 

Defense Plan Calls for Greater Firepower But Less Troops

Chosun Ilbo

 

 

 

The military will reduce its troop size but equip itself with far greater firepower, according to the Defense Ministry's revised version of the Defense Reform 2020 plan announced Friday.

 

With North Korea's nuclear program and missiles posing a clear danger, South Korea plans to upgrade combat capability with high-tech military hardware which can strike targets anywhere in the North with surgical precision.

 

It will add to its arsenal an early warning radar to detect imminent ballistic missile attacks and adopt a surface-to-air guided missile defense system as well as buying ship-to-air interceptor missiles, to name a few. The plan is to cost close to W600 trillion over the next 10 years (US$1=W1,248).

 

But the military force is to be scaled down to 510,000 soldiers from the current 680,000. The proposal takes account of the transfer of full control of South Korean troops to Seoul from the U.S. in 2012.

 

Also under the plan, a new unit of peacekeeping forces will be created aimed at rapid deployment to troubled regions overseas at the request of the UN. The 3,000-strong unit consists of about 900 special forces soldiers and up to 2,000 support personnel recruited from almost all branches of the military.

 

The regiment-sized unit will be led by troops trained for counter-terrorism missions. Depending on the nature of deployment, up to 1,000 soldiers can be dispatched for a mission. When the unit is formed, the government will be able to send a contingent overseas within a month or two months of the call. In the past, it could take between three and six months from the recruiting of troops and National Assembly approval until actual deployment.

 

good lookin out...

[christo-f]

Should be another launch in the next few days. More than likely a 3 stage Taepodong-2 (ICBM) on Saturday.

[YouMad.GIF]

With the exponential advancement of all technology, particularly nuclear weaponry, it seems that some sort of at least limited scale nuclear proliferation seems near imminent. With more and more unstable or "rogue" nations gaining cheaper acess to the technology I think we are certainly destined for some sort of nuclear incedent and retaliation, the only question is how severe or contained it will be.

[christo-f]

What do you mean proliferation seems imminent?

 

Nuclear proliferation has been happening ever since the 1950s!

 

First Russia, then the UK, France, China, South Africa, Israel, Pakistan, India, DPRK, Iran, Lybia, Iraq, take your pick mate! Proliferation just means spreading of something and that has been happening ever since the first bomb was made and then nicely sped up in the 80s thanks to Abdul Kadeer Khan.

 

I will be shocked if we see anything other than the use of a tactical warhead (as in small theater sized as opposed to a strategic strike that is the size of a city) in our life time. And even that will surprise me.

 

Nukes are defensive, you have them so you don't need to use them.

[YouMad.GIF]

I would say in a classic cold war model they are defensive

 

but that thinking does not fit with the tactics of rogue states, countries that can only produce a couple of warheads on rockets with minimal range. I think it's far more likely a country could be gained controll of by a radical group or dictator willing to sacrifice their body in order to give our country a black eye, or more likely a Pakistan/india like situation.

 

I think nukes roles have shifted towards an equalizing effect with neighboring or regional enemies, and less of a deterrance factor between superpowers

[christo-f]

Extremist groups, sure they are the greatest risk. But "rogue nations" (WTF is a rogue nation anyway?) under dictators are the last ones that will use them. There is more chance that the US would use a nke than DPRK. Dictators are power people through and through. They are the kings of their country and live like fat pigs, that's want they want. They don't want to die and lose their power, that would defeat their main purpose in this world, being the king and feeding their egotistical appetite.

 

An equalising effect IS a deterrence dynamic. Mutual destruction is the epitome of deterrence and that's what the equalising effect is between nations like Pak/India, Iran/Israel, China/Japan, DPRK/JAPAN/US nuclear umbrella for ROK, etc.

 

DPRK wants to be nuclear capable to ensure regime security against outside influence and to push them up to great power status in the world instead of a poor shit hole that no one takes seriously.

 

The only serious risk we have is that "rogue nations" destabilise and the tech falls in to the hands of non-state, religious actors such as Al Qaeda, LeT, etc.

[christo-f]

Two short range ground to ship missiles just fired off east coast.

 

Expect more over the next few days. Also look for SAMs being tested. This deters spy planes from the area and can be an indicator of another ICBM launch or test of a nuke device.

[R@ndomH3ro]

OMG TEY HAXORZING UR INTERNETZ!! OH NOES!!!

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/08/AR2009070800066.html?hpid=moreheadlines

[TRUE2]

if world war 3 happens in the next 3 years then ya the world will end cause like hundreds of years ago they predicted that the WW3 will be the beginning of the end

[R@ndomH3ro]

goddamn, shut the fuck up

 

that was the worst collection of words ever called a sentence.

[Telo]

haha..

 

North Korean Hackers.. Interesting

[george jetson]

^^^ from what ive read its been outside hackers who are being paid by north korea to do this stuff. how many north koreans even have computers? kim jong il and kim jong il last i checked. who knows though. i dont completely trust the media anyways.

[Telo]

Yeah i didnt really understand how it were to work out.. Now granted I understand that the entire country essentially lacks internet access but is it possible for Kim Jung Il and co. to access internet in his home and other govt buildings?

[christo-f]

You have to understand that the DPRK security forces are well educated and well funded. THe infantry as a whole are not particularly cutting edge. But the missile program is decent, the SF program is formidable, the tech program is actually one of the best in the world, they have more multilinguals per capita than most developed countries. Pyang knows what it needs to do to keep the strategic edge/stand off space. DPRK keeps itself where it needs to be enough to deter attack (that means nuke capacity or the image of nuke capable, regional power projection and tech offensive capability). It's the same as one single person having 10 nukes. Sure, he cannot fend off a whole army but he can make an attack on him so fucking costly that it is not worth the effort, even if you do win in the end.

 

I'm no tech wiz/casek, but I would assume that either Pyang has deployed tech sleepers that are now testing a capability. Pay attention to the fact that no real damage was done (it was a simple denial of service attack) and so far there is nothing to say that crucial information was stolen. So, they are either creating a diversion for another attack or they are testing weakness/reaction/capability. They have either deployed their own elements to initiate or they have created a new form of zombie that has a trace barrier yet undetectable.

 

Sure DPRK is a fucked up shithole with an unsustainable economic and social structure. But they still do hold some serious strategic cards that are enough to keep the world standing back and guessing. Put it this way, they are considered to be nuclear capable which is more than can be said for about 195 other countries. If they were completely useless we would not be paying this much attention to them. Disregard them at your own peril.

 

DPRK is defensive in nature. With the latest nuke and missile test they are demonstrating their capabilities to make us think twice about hitting them. This latest cyber assault provides exactly that , a demonstration of force that makes us stand back and think "well, if they can do that, what else can they do?". Once again, DPRK keeps us guessing enough to make us think twice. This has to be respected, they aren't stupid.

[Telo]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jO5PtkM_1FjwMZjh3LS74g26yiUQD99C8ON80

[christo-f]

Kim Jong-il 'Won't Live Another 5 Years'

Chosun Ilbo

 

 

 

The CIA has told South Korean intelligence that the chances of ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il surviving another five years are one in three.

 

A South Korean government source on Friday said the CIA last month informed intelligence authorities here of a long-distance analysis of Kim's health that suggests there is a 71 percent probability of Kim, who has been battling complications from a stroke and diabetes, dying within the next five years.

 

The CIA speculation is apparently based on analysis of medical data including Kim's age, medical history, physical condition, and changes in his physical condition between the time of the stroke and more recently. It indexed Kim's physical condition based on various intelligence reports including brain scan pictures obtained by South Korean intelligence and testimonies of senior informants, in addition to information such as photos of Kim's on-the-spot guidance tours.

 

The Washington Times last Thursday gave Kim even less time. "New reports from U.S. and diplomatic sources say that the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il continues to decline and that he may have only one more year to live," the daily said.

 

South Korean intelligence services agree that Kim is not in a good health, but different agencies apparently have different views about how serious his condition is.

 

 

 

Report: NKorea's Kim has pancreatic cancer

 

 

 

 

AP – FILE - In this Wednesday July 8, 2009

By JAE-SOON CHANG, Associated Press Writer – 10 mins ago

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has life-threatening pancreatic cancer, a news report said Monday, days after new images of him looking gaunt spurred speculation that his health might be worsening following a reported stroke last year.

The 67-year-old Kim was diagnosed with the cancer around the time he was felled by a stroke last summer, Seoul's YTN television reported, citing unidentified intelligence officials in South Korea and China.

The report cited the officials saying the disease is "threatening" Kim's life.

Pancreatic cancer is usually found in its final stage, and considering Kim's age, he is expected to live no more than five years, the report said.

South Korea's spy agency said it could not confirm the report. Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told reporters he knows of nothing of the report.

Kim's health is a focus of intense media speculation due to concerns about instability and a power struggle if he were to die without naming a successor. His third and youngest son, Kim Jong Un, has widely been reported as being groomed as heir, but the regime has made no announcement to the outside world.

Monday's report came after Kim last week made a rare public appearance, in an annual memorial for his late father and North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung.

Television footage showed him markedly thinner and with less hair — only the second state event he has attended in person since the reported stroke. He also limped slightly, and the sides of his tightlipped mouth looked imbalanced in what were believed to be the effects of a stroke.

The images touched off speculation that he could have other health problems.

South Korea's spy agency has long suspected that Kim has diabetes and heart disease.

Medical doctor and professor Min Yang-ki of Seoul's Hallym University Medical Center has said diabetes usually leads to weight loss. The neurologist also said Kim's limping appears to be a result of a stroke. However, he said, overall it appeared Kim has recovered from that reported illness.

Kim walked on his own into a Pyongyang auditorium for last week's memorial at a normal pace and bowed while standing during a moment of silence.

North Korea experts said the latest images of Kim show he is still fit enough to rule.

The totalitarian leader, whose rule is buttressed by an intense cult of personality, knew that the people ofNorth Korea would pay great attention to the memorial, and his appearance there is a message that he is in charge, Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said last week.

Kim Jong Il took over North Korea after his father died in 1994 of heart failure at age 82, though he did not take on his father's title of president. He runs the North from his post as chairman of the National Defense Commission.

In early April, he presided over a parliamentary meeting where he was re-elected as leader.

The South's spy agency believes that Kim's 26-year-old youngest son, Jong Un, is sure to inherit North Korea, Seoul's Chosun Ilbo daily reported Monday, citing a recent report to the National Assembly by the National Intelligence Service.

The agency also reported that Kim Jong Il is expected to officially designate the son as his successor in 2012, the centennial anniversary of late national founder Kim Il Sung's birth, the paper said.

But the regime under the son is expected to be unstable and vulnerable to internal political strife as Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, Jang Song Thaek, could attempt to snatch power, the paper said.

The spy agency declined to confirm the report.

[R@ndomH3ro]

good riddance, see you in hell you midget bastard.