Hua Guofang

Yes and no - it makes him look like a leader to the kind of folk that seem to support him (rightly or wrongly) but it also comes with huge risk. You gotta be careful your electoral strategists don't write cheques your strategic realities can't cash. For example, when a Chinese citizen gets kidnapped or killed by a jihadi they censor all angry comments about it on the Chinese websites. Beijing doesn't want a bar of the Mid East quicksandpit so whist it talks tough about the South China and East China Seas, it says dick all about the Mid East because it doesn't want to be called to account for what lies in the too hard basket. Trump has already showed reluctance on getting serious with Tehran after they shot the drone down. He knows how hard it is, @Merceris 100% on the money with Iran being a hard target regards mountains and geographic barriers (also can close Hormuz cracking the world's energy market), as well as having a well trained, loyal and capable military force. They also have a majority of the population that support the govt and there is little threat of jihadis rising up like they did in Iraq, creating a multiple front conflict. Being Shiite, they have their shit largely under lock, MEK, their terror group barely, if at all, exist within Iran's borders. Iran's greatest threat outside of the US is Israel and then Turkey, KSA and Russia. Trump also campaigned on ending the forever wars. He'll be able to spin it if he needs to (his base seem to have an incongruous position of 'get out of the Mid East and Obamas forever wars' and 'America, fuck yeah!'), but I'm sure he'd rather not have to try.

If the US strikes Iran proper with air/cruise missiles it will be a major shift and I really hope they don’t. There is no clear reason to escalate in such a drastic way - Iran does not pose a threat to CONUS so to strike their cites (especially cultural sites) will cement enmity for generations. it’s really hard not to see this in the context of an election year. Not saying there is cause and effect there, just having to work hard to hold that suspicion at bay right now.

The whole WWIII is so silly. Who is going to join Iran's side in a fight against the US? Sure as fuck won't be China or Russia. They might aid Iran in some ways but they sure as hell won't be in the trenches with them. KSA, Israel and the majority of the Mid East will be happy to see Iran pounded. Europe will complain because they've got a bunch invested in Iran - especially since the JCPOA - but they won't join in on either side. Iran won't hit the US head on either, it will carry out assassinations in South America or get Hezbollah to cook off some VBIEDs on US troops somewhere in the world. It's not the first time this kind of thing has happened before, the hit on Imad Mugniyeh is the blue print and there were no huge reprisals for that. Iran completely embarrassed itself a few years back with utter buffoonery when it tried to launch some international hits on ISraelis and Americans in Thailand (seriously, they blew up their own hideout and then another guy blew his own legs off by accident when the cops showed up), the US and India. Seriously, if you want a laugh, read up on those two debacles. Not to say this situation is meaningless, it's big, no doubt. But the Chicken Little bullshit that's been going on with many news outlets and on social media is a bit overblown and largely uninformed.

Ok, last post before I call it a night:

No way, custard pies all round!! @Mercerlol, you say I’m biased against Trump when I’m the one who’s defending his/ US actions here. You’re the one condemning it, not me!! I thnk that you’re right in that there would have been a good number of authentic protesters there. But how could it be possible that the authorities can bring forces to gun down marches of thousands over months since November but we’re nowhere to be seen when about 500 people besieged the embassy for days? Im not following any media line, stop making lame excuses. I’m asking completely reasonable questions of you. lastly, I’ve already answered your first question in saying that there were rocket attacks that killed a US citizen, which were responded to by US air strikes on the HZB depots, but I have no idea if this is the true foundation of recent actions or if there’s more to it. I don’t deny that US behavior in the Mid East has been a cluster fuck of misery and lies, absolutely no doubt about it. But you are aware that Iran under the clergy are actually shitfully worse and that Sulameini is responsible for worse crimes against humanity in Syria than Russia and the US put together, right? he ran Iraq from 2003 up to now, he’s the guy that took US idiocy and aggression into hell and fed it with the bodies of civilians. lol, that’s about as dramatic as I can possibly get. Seriously though, I’m not saying who’s to blame for the current shitfight, but to say that the US is acting without provocation and that there is even any kind of coherent strategy behind US actions in Iraq/Iran right now is very naive.

I got to halfway through point two and felt like custard pie-ing you in the face. The bombings were such a violation, the citizens themselves protested Are you seriously that naive??!! Have you not seen the footage of hundreds of protesters gunned down in the streets in Iraq by the police and the shiite militias over the last two months?! Did you not ask yourself why there were no police and state backed guys with guns at this particular protest? IT WAS AN OPERATION, FFS! Have you seriously not asked yourself what the top commander of the Iranian Quds force was doing in Iraq at the same time as the US embassy was stormed? Just a quirky coincidence??! Tell me that you're stoned. Just tell me that you're fucking blasted, please.

Also, not sure what the actual trigger was but this is part of a larger spiral and I don't know who started it. But there were rocket attacks a while back from IRanian prxoes in IRaq, or so I read in the news. I really don't know any more than that, though. Could be a whole understory to be told yet. It'll come out, if there is.

Wartime presidents face a bit of a seesaw, if the war is going well, they generally win. If the war isn't going well, they lose. Just ask LBJ. (of course, that's a simplistic sentence that requires a lot more detail but it serves the purpose) Also, Trump campaigned on getting out of the Forever Wars, should he be sucked back into them, like man, many presidents before him, he'll have to work hard to explain it away. Although, his base seem to swallow all his other bullshit excuses so why not another - "No president has ever faced a Middle East situation like I have. They've come up against big talkers like Saddam - and I was against the Iraq war, just ask Fox News, Donald Trump would never have made that mistake - but nobody has ever been able to defeat the Mullahs in Tehran. Well I'm the guy, I know these Mullahs, better than anyone else in the world, believe me .....", and they will. Yep, I reckon he's bigger than OBL as well, If they'd got OBL in Tora Bora then it would be an interesting discussion, (because that that stage we didn't know that AQ was a spent force) but QS is bigger than the Iranian pres, he was a secondary powerbase to the Mullahs and there were legitimate questions being asked whether he was setting up an alternative powerbase to take national power. Not sure what the global condemnation is (fuck you, drunk, not googling) but if it's coming from Europe, fuck them. THey know how dangerous he is and how many of their children he's killed. .

The fact that he was in Iraq when the embassy was raided means he was 100% the designer and commandant of that operation. There can be zero doubt about that. That he was even in Iraq says a lot about that country's leadership. It is not an exaggeration to say that this is as big, if not bigger than the bin Laden hit. (given OBL was basically redundant when he died)

Shit, didn’t know he was dead! Although, I’d like to see the details before I believe a meme that two bullets were ruled suicide. there’s a pretty good movie about him, staring the guy who shoots arrows in the avenger movies. Not sure how true to fact it is. CIA only has itself to blame when people expect the worst of them. The Cold War was a dirty, dirty time when ideology and paranoia was allowed to roam free.

In Sydney, clear skies with easterly wind, for the moment. Had to drive country back roads to avoid fires. Feels good to breathe without regret again. had the car loaded with 30l of water, gas masks, towels for wetting over, torches, goggles, etc. trying to be prepped without scaring wife and mother in law. fire demon spotted in Vic

Hits don’t come much bigger than that. Israel would be pretty pleased about it as well.

Forever wars just took a monumental turn with the killing of QS.

Lol, even a few from my old Donald Chump sign in!

Here’s a thread for siting your own panted pieces:

I've never had to deal with this scourge and can't fathom what you and your family are going though. If you choose to fight, we're there with you in spirit. If you choose to focus on the time you have left and make the most of it, I hope you pack 50 years into a few and have a hell of a time, mete. If it gives you some sense of satisfaction, I suffer from reflux and wasn't aware things could get this serious. Now that I do, I'll not be lazy with it. Thank you for that, your post made some difference.

Pope freestylin those mad Vatican rhymes Aint nobody touchin him, bitches gonna get slapped

Cheers, roads are likely to be cut in the next 36 hrs so it's now or cancer.

lol @ idiots. .

Fuck this, we're out. Putting the kid in the car and driving north tonight. Air here is barely breathable and they're saying it's going to deteriorate as the fires intensify in the coming days (the rating was past 3000 less than 25 hours ago). Haven't seen @Schnitzelon here in a couple of days and I know his state has been hit pretty hard too. Hoping things are ok.