A New Middle Eastern Dynamic and the Coming of the Turks...., again

[BLU]

Iran has announced that they will military escort any ship asking for "protection"...

 

[christo-f]

I can't see that anywhere, where did you see/hear this?

 

never mind, found it.

 

 

Iran sometimes talks about a limited conflict in order to bolster its deterrent capabilities like ISrael does with stuff like the 2006 war with Leb and Cast Lead in Gaza. Good time to fuck with Israel right now when they are losing friends all over the shop.

[Removed]

http://news.antiwar.com/2010/06/05/report-turkish-pm-may-go-to-gaza-himself/

Report: Turkish PM May Sail to Gaza Himself

Erdogan Would Bring New Flotilla, Turkish Navy With Him

by Jason Ditz, June 05, 2010

Email This | Print This | Share This | Antiwar Forum

 

Turkish officials have been suggesting that they would dispatch a military escort with future aid flotillas to the Gaza Strip in response to the massacre of aid workers on board one of their ships by Israeli commandos earlier this week. The scope of the operation was never disclosed.

Turkish PM Erdogan

 

But now it looks like this may come to fruition in the near term and in very high profile fashion, as security sources within Turkey are reporting that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not only planning to dispatch the Navy on the next flotilla, but that he is considering accompanying them personally.

 

Israeli officials dismissed the possibility of Erdogan visiting the Gaza Strip with the flotilla, describing it as unrealistic. The United States has reportedly asked Erdogan to delay the aid operation in light of rising tensions with Israel.

 

As Turkey’s population has expressed outrage over the massacre of Turkish citizens and the government has expressed its displeasure at Israel’s attack, Israel has done a comparatively successful job in spinning Turkey as the real villain domestically, and Israeli protesters have been out in force condemning Erdogan and Turkey in general as terrorists for both dispatching aid to the besieged strip and for complaining when the aid workers were killed.

 

Israel’s formidable military has roughly the same budget as Turkey’s, but as a member in good standing of NATO Turkey could also call upon much of the international community if its Navy is attacked on such a mission, making it unlikely Israel will choose to solve an accompanied aid delivery militarily.

[the.crooked]

GO TURKS!!! YAY MY BIG NOSE!!!

 

 

Jk.

 

Honestly, I'm surprised shit like this hasn't happened sooner. Israel has been slowly digging themselves into this spot, and now people took advantage of it.

 

Poor planning from an outdated and paranoid political model.

 

The other thing to consider regardless of the dispute between Christo and e2e is that it's the functional value that matters, not even necessarily the initial intent on either side. As turkey is playing it as a strategic move, then it doesn't matter whether they initially meant to. Purely aid workers, or strategically sent there by Turkey to provoke Israel, it matters not. It only matters that now, Israel is being exploited by other regional powers for their own power plays.

 

Israel has had this coming though... honestly. You can't constantly piss off an entire region on the basis that you have the US backing you. That shit wouldn't last forever.

[ILOTSMYBRAIN]

.

.

.

.

Politics is a matter of interests, justice is a matter of philosophy.

 

Word.

 

I feel you. I was just throwing my opinion out there.

 

I understand completely, still doesn't make it right. Of course that just brings us back to what I quoted from you.

[Zig]

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=177710

 

Uzi Dayan, former deputy Chief of General Staff, told Army Radio Monday morning.

 

"If the Turkish prime minister joins such a flotilla,” Dayan said, “we should make clear beforehand this would be an act of war, and we would not try to take over the ship he was on, but would sink it.”

 

“If Israel doesn't make this clear beforehand, the Turks will grow increasingly self-assured, and we may indeed find ourselves facing such a scenario, which could have been averted.”

[christo-f]

Yeah I read that the other day and had to laugh. That was in response to a rumour that came out of Lebanon that Erdogan was going to join a vessel. Dayan responded, in all his stupefying glory and you can see how little he matters by the total lack of response from anyone else, anywhere.

 

Dayan hasn't been Dep. Cheif of Staff for a while now, he's part of the reserves command element. No one listens to him.

 

If you want to see some one a little more important that says stupid shit like this, go look at Leiberman instead.

[Zig]

If you want to see some one a little more important that says stupid shit like this, go look at Leiberman instead.

 

true story

[lord_casek]

Some HD footage smuggled out of the Israeli attack

 

Chris, if you need this ripped and uploaded, let me know.

[Decyferon]

the thing that annoys me is if the Israelis have nothing to hide then why not allow an international commitee to investigate what happened? and why try and confiscate the footage of what happened?

 

Just stinks to me of them trying to cover everything up as per their normal agenda.

 

It is a shame the footage is quite choppy and isn't right in the action because you cannot see exactly what happens, but believe me if I were to be put in that situation (which I wouldn't ever do) I would make sure I was armed because I for one would not trust the Israeli government/military to act in a decent manner.

 

I also completely agree with Ilotsmybrain stated, the Israelis always say oh but the holocaust, I mean it was a horrendous atrocity that was commited against the jews but it does not give them any right or excuse for their loutish and bully behaviour and generally secretive manner in which they conduct themselves like they don't have to justify their actions. If they did nothing wrong then allow an international commitee to investigate their actions, by not allowing that they are just apinting themselves as being guilty.

[lord_casek]

the thing that annoys me is if the Israelis have nothing to hide then why not allow an international commitee to investigate what happened? and why try and confiscate the footage of what happened?

 

Just stinks to me of them trying to cover everything up as per their normal agenda.

 

It is a shame the footage is quite choppy and isn't right in the action because you cannot see exactly what happens, but believe me if I were to be put in that situation (which I wouldn't ever do) I would make sure I was armed because I for one would not trust the Israeli government/military to act in a decent manner.

 

I also completely agree with Ilotsmybrain stated, the Israelis always say oh but the holocaust, I mean it was a horrendous atrocity that was commited against the jews but it does not give them any right or excuse for their loutish and bully behaviour and generally secretive manner in which they conduct themselves like they don't have to justify their actions. If they did nothing wrong then allow an international commitee to investigate their actions, by not allowing that they are just apinting themselves as being guilty.

 

 

Did you see the IDF executing the 19 year old American?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlElXOJV4CA&feature=player_embedded

 

4 shots to the dome.

[Decyferon]

that is no surprise to me whatsoever Casek, I have seen footage before of the Israeli army killing unarmed innocents before, they have killed peaceworkers and foreigners that were doing no wrong, seems the general MO to me.

 

Until Israel become less secretive and allow international commitees to investigate their actions they will always be in the wrong. They know it as well, which is why they don't allow any investigations apart from their completely farsical internal investigations which are complete propoganda.

 

It isn't the jewishg people I have a problem with but the Israeli government and military are scum of the highest order and deserve everything that they get, the blood of their own people is on their hands - they are the ones that are causing the problems no one else.

[lord_casek]

I think I see a serious shift in perception of Israel coming about. Mar said something about it and I didn't think much of it (just someones opinion), but when I surf news sites I am starting to see what he was talking about.

 

It's too bad this was at their own doing. Israel isn't the small kid being bullied on the playground any longer, seems they are starting to push back and getting overzealous.

 

We'll see.

[Decyferon]

I completely agree, they have made their bed and now it is time for them to lie in it.

 

It used to be that you couldnt say a bad word about Israel because you would be called anti-semetic however nowadays everyone is asking questions about their actions because they are so damn shady and frankly criminal.

[christo-f]

You guys are missing the play here.

 

Israel doesn't give a fuck about being right so why would it give a shit for an international investigation? And for that matter, neither does any other country care either. Seriously, the Arabs hate the Palestinians. Egypt is a secular nation that is becoming dynastic in nature. They routinely kill and imprison their main opposition the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is a theocratic leader and is a spin off from the Muslim B. Remember, it's not just Israel that blockades Gaza but Egypt too. Egypt controls the Sinai border of Gaza and has blockaded it all by itself, that's not ISrael, that's Egypt. They don't want any contact between Hamas and MB and neither does Egypt want to see Gaza become a nation because you know where they will look next to spread their political ideology.

 

Jordan hates Fatah, not only because Fatah tried to over throw the government in the 70s (that resulted in Jordan killing about 10,000 Palestinians) but Jordan is majority Palestinian whilst the ruling class is Hashemite from the Arabian peninsula. The second the West Bank becomes a state they won't look towards teh coast to expand because that's impossible. they'll be looking east, Jordan doesn't want that. Why do you think Jordan and Egypt recognize and have treaties with ISrael?

 

Because they have the same agenda, to get rid of the Palestinians.

 

 

What you are seeing now is a power play by Turkey and they are using ISrael for that. The US support from Israel is a cold war relic. It wasn't until the 67 war and the Soviet support for Arab states that the US had any interest and gave one fuck about Israel. The Cold War is done, for now, and there is a new power in the region that is also a NATO member, Turkey.

 

Turkey is a secular state (although that could change with AKP) and is a great balance against Iran. US can support Turkey without upsetting Muslims, which helps it get out of Afghan and Iraq. The US can also let Turkey in to Iraq to balance against Iranian influence and not lose anything. Turkey can plug the gap at the Caucuses to deny Russia too much expansion and also has a cultural and regional look in to Central Asia. There are also other little side benefits like Turkish links to Xinjiang in China that can help the US and also in to the Balkans, which can keep the EU honest and preclude too much Russian influence.

 

 

Israel is becoming a burden on the US and even the head of Mossad agrees. This is the play. And that is exactly what the tread title means, there is a new dynamic in town.

 

 

 

This shift has nothing to do with right or wrong, in the end people don't give a shit about the Palestinians (bar a few European do gooders, god bless them). It's about coming out on the winning side when they dynamic changes.

 

 

PS, did you miss the thread title, Casek?

[Decyferon]

oh I understand that Israel doesn't give a fuck about what people think of them, but if there is a whole shift in the dynamic in the area then surely by being so 'fuck you' to everyone, Israel is leaving itself in a weaker position in the area in general because they are losing the support they traditionally had from the west.

 

I am just trying to understand their position and approach, because I certainly don't have the level of understanding of the area that you do Christo, it seems to me they are constantly shooting themselves in the foot and alienating themselves more.

[christo-f]

No, the West has always supported them every other time there were Israeli atrocities, Cast Lead being a good example. There has to be a reason why it's not flying this time, especially at a time when the world is willing to pass sanctions on Iran.

 

Power is being redistributed and people are reacting to that.

 

BTW, I watched that whole vimeo/movie and I didn't see anyone getting shot anywhere. All I saw were casualties being carried, sling shots at helicopters and a boat coming in to board the Marmara.

 

Did I watch the wrong video? That thing didn't tell me shit about anyone.

 

I also find it a little interesting that they showed the passenger casualties but not the Israeli casualties that they had down below. Vid really was a waste of time though....

[christo-f]

oh I understand that Israel doesn't give a fuck about what people think of them,

 

Also keep in mind that Israel doesn't have a monopoly on this behaviour.

 

France - Algeria

 

US - Iraq

 

Russia - Georgia/Caucuses (well, the whole fucking Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries come to mind here...)

 

Syria - Lebanon

 

Indonesia - Irian Jaya/Aceh

 

Sri Lanka - Tamils

 

Iraq/Sunnis - Shiites

 

Turkey/Iraq/Iran - Kurds

 

Serbia - Kosovo

 

World - Rwanda

 

 

 

This list could go on for a long time, all throughout history including both Australia and England.

 

 

 

Nobody gives a shit about anyone, mate. Why should the Israelis be any different?

 

 

 

*Edit, not to sound pro-Israeli but just to look at what is in front of me. That list above came from the top of my head and a quick glance at a map. If you look at most of these countries here they are fucking some one else over for gain (Sri Lanka had an insurgency, Aceh was the same). Israel is fighting for survival. Now if you say go back to the Green Line/67 borders, take a look at the map, note the topography, read some military history and then ask yourself how long Israel would survive.

 

Once again, no one gives a fuck in the real world. Everyone acts on national interest. Much of the time the world ignores suffering that is carried out through conquest. So why is it the world, or the vocal commentators seem to pick on Israel for not giving a fuck when they are not acting through conquest but out of pure survival?

 

Now, keep in miind that I don't give a shit about the ISraelis, they could be blown to hell for all I care. Likewise I would drink the same beer and watch the same game should the Palestinians be burned to death with white phosphorous. I have no link to any of these people and they sure as fuck don't care if I land in a Chinese prison for the next 100 years. I'm just telling it how it is.

[Decyferon]

yea I agree, everyone acts in their own interest, I just find that the Israelis are particularly difficult to deal with, I suppose it is the norm for that area of the world, just look at Iran.

[christo-f]

Yeah, once again I look back to their recent history.

 

Kind of given them a "take no shit no matter what" attitude.

 

Doesn't give them an excuse, sure as fuck gives them a reason though!!

[Decyferon]

Did you see the recent report saying that it was the EU's fault that the Turks are now turning their attention more to the middle east as they weren't allowed to join the EU? Do you think that this is correct. Or do you think that because they have seen the support of Israel lessening and see it as an opportunity to become a more powerful player in the middle east?

 

I can imagine Turkey is in a strange position being that it is kind of the gateway between the muslim world and Europe.

 

Also, if Turkey is looking to become a more powerful country in the middle east, do you think they will be more supportive of Iran, and oppose sanctions against Iran?

[lord_casek]

christo, are you geeking out over this stuff? I know it's your job, but damn.

[christo-f]

christo, are you geeking out over this stuff? I know it's your job, but damn.

 

You aint seen geek until you seen me on Israeli geopol. It's actually the easiest thing in the world today. The geography is simple, the history is over documented and the players involved are all totally constrained by their political, economic and geographic realities.

 

When people are rational actors and have very few possible choices they can make it becomes very easy to see what will happen next. Hence the thread title right at the outset, there's no other possible outcome because we are all bound by rationality.

 

/yes geek

[christo-f]

Did you see the recent report saying that it was the EU's fault that the Turks are now turning their attention more to the middle east as they weren't allowed to join the EU? Do you think that this is correct. Or do you think that because they have seen the support of Israel lessening and see it as an opportunity to become a more powerful player in the middle east?

 

I think it is the latter, if Turkey was in the EU they would still have acted the same way as it is the rational choice. I say that no one gives a shit about right and wrong, but I should caveat that. On big ticket issues like the US involvement in WW2 as opposed to isolationism, Germany bailing out Greece, London backing the US on Iraq and so on, the public sentiment will be disregarded because it is uninformed of the cost benefit ratio (not trying to be condescending but the average person doesn't understand geopolitics because it requires a specific education, just like engineering, computer sciences, dental health, law, psychology, old age care, marketing, etc, etc,. I could not go and tell a retail display designer what is important to the jewelry market in Antwerp because that requires a specific knowledge. People know their gig and a little bit about one or two others and that's about it). So when the leaders of nations plainly see what they must do but it goes against public sentiment, ou best believe that they will do it. Doesn't mean they are right, it just means on the information they have they will make the rational choice based on national interest because that is the job and skill set.

 

If Turkey was in the EU that would create an economic, social and security separation between them and the Arab world. Part of the EU is supposedly surrendering an element of your foreign policy to the whim of the collective (Casek, this is much alike the original League of Nations draft and it is the element that many in the US saw as ceding sovereignty. LoN meant that you had to oppose yourself to any country invading another nation's sovereign territory. Some would say that this supported sovereignty and others argued that the freedom to choose allies regardless of aggressive intent was an element of sovereignty that they refused to give up) and for EU members that are on the periphery of the EU or share cultural links with other regions that meant potentially being opposed to your neighbours.

 

Turkey borders Iran, Iraq and Syria, the Caucuses and is just across the Caspian from other FSU states. IT really needs to be able to navigate its way through the region using its own intelligence and knowledge (which it cannot do as part of the EU) or it has to join the EU and dominate the region to ensure its policies are aligned with that of the EU. The Russia thing is not so much the ISsue as the Caucuses are a very powerful little thorn in everyone's side with very restrictive geography. However, Even though there are huge mountains in between Turkey and Iran that separate conventional military force there are other lever that Tehran may use. First is nuclear weapons. Tehran already has the tech to hit turkey with missiles, as soon as they can weaponise their nukes Turkey is within range. Secondly Iran has a proxy capability that is Hezbollah and they are a pretty serious force that is capable of carrying out international operations (look up Buenos Aires attack, Canadian cell, etc.) and undoubtedly has shelf attacks by the number in Turkey. Thirdly is the Mediterranean and this is where history and geography comes in to it. Persia has been an empire that has spanned across to the Levant before, that means that geography allows Turkish expansion in to the Med. Turkey is a Med nation and has to bear this in mind when considering Iranian future capabilities. Fourth is the issue of Iraq and the possibility that it is about to become an Iranian proxy thanks to the US invasion. If Iran takes Iraq it has then increased its exposure to the turkish border from Armenia all the way to the Med thanks to its already existing ties to Syria. Finally comes the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey. Iran also suffers from this but there is nothing to say that it couldn't offer the Kurds concessions in Iran for action in Turkey.

 

Then you have to look at the Mediterranean itself. In history the Assyrians, the Babylonians, the Persians, the Romans, etc. etc. all the way to the current hegemon, the US, have been present in the Med. This is just another frontier where Turkish national interest may come in to conflict with EU foreign policy should Turkey become an EU member. That means, keeping in mind that all countries will act on national interest, that regardless of whether Turkey is an EU member or not, when the national interest is in question Turkey will act in a way that allows it to defend itself against threats.

 

In all this, keep in mind that the EU may have a foreign policy but it does not have a standing army (or structure like that of NATO) and cannot collectively defend its member states against invasion. As the EU stands, it has an economic policy but it does not have a defense policy. And that means that even if Turkey was part of the EU it would still be taking every opportunity to dominate the other nations within the region.

 

 

I do believe that the claim that Turkey acted this way was a response by the US to Turkey's vote against US sponsored UN resolution against Iran on Thursday. This claim was then refuted by Defense Sec. Gates today by saying that Turkey and Brazil engineered the nuclear swap deal and could not rationally then sanction Iran in turn. This was meant to put pressure on Germany to allow Turkey in to the EU and that it is a play but the US that I shall now continue to geek out on.

 

Turkey is the new power in the Middle East. IT is the new Arab power, Muslim power and regional power (even though it aint Arab). It is a member of NATO and was a very important pillar in the US Cold War effort against the USSR. The US doesn't want to alienate them, they want to work together just the same as they have with Israel for the last 40 years. Israel want in on the EU, the US doesn't want Turkey to align with Iran/Syria/HB so it gives it a sweet backhander. That is the US chastises Turkey for going against US wishes in the UN, thus letting Turkey know not to make a habit out of it. But then it creates an excuse for Ankara as it if was somebody else's fault in turn pressuring the EU to move forward on Turkey. That is a backhander that Turkey can accept and that will deliver a stern message but will also let them know that Washington wants to align with them and can reward them for doing so, Classic carrot and stick.

 

As for the EU, some would argue that this is all Germany. Once again we look to geography and history. In the Ottoman empire Turkey expanded up in to the Balkans, a rich, fertile area that is protected/buffered by Carpathian, Rila, Rhodope and Balkan mountains. It was able to expand its influence in to these areas aided by geography. This is an area that Germany looks to expand its influence into and would much prefer to deny Turkey the opportunity. Having Turkey as an EU member precludes Germany from using EU foreign policy against such an expansion and keeping turkey out of the EU gives Germany another tool with which to carry out its regional interests.

 

 

So all in all, the idea that EU membership is some how responsible or explanatory of Turkish behaviour does not stand up to even the most basic of scrutiny.

 

 

 

 

I can imagine Turkey is in a strange position being that it is kind of the gateway between the muslim world and Europe.

 

Turkey is a land bridge between (southern) Europe and Asia. This has been part of the geopolitical and economic equation of nations for centuries as per the Silk Road trading routes. These tensions are nothing new and history can be a guide as to the constraints in how this issue can be handled.

 

 

Also, if Turkey is looking to become a more powerful country in the middle east, do you think they will be more supportive of Iran, and oppose sanctions against Iran?

 

They did oppose sanctions against Iran on Thursday along with Brazil and Lebanon abstained (thanks to an engineered parliamentary vote to make it so). however, Turkey is a competitor to Iran and all players involved know it. Iran wants to be the regional/Muslim power and so does Turkey. Iran has used Israel as its whipping boy for decades to gain popular support and Turkey usurped this role from them with the flotilla. Watch for an Iranian flotilla soon as they try to regain the initiative. After the UN vote and the domestic pressure that is now on Ahmedinejad watch for violence in Iraq and afghanistan to pick up and the possibility of a contained military confrontation between Us/Israeli interests and Iran. Read that sentence again. This is what I mean by a new Middle Eastern dynamic.

 

 

Israel was the regional power thanks to US support. Iran was the #1 challenger to Israeli power. Turkey will now move in to the role of regional power by removing Israel and that will then as an extension undermine Iranian power.

 

The US can shift its support to Turkey and gain a huuuuuuuuuge advantage.

 

Turkey is a Muslim country and with the US switching its support from Israel to Turkey all your Islamist extremists can no longer rally against the US as an anti-Muslim, Zionist power. That undermines the Muslim terrorist agenda. Secondly, it is much easier for Turkey to ally with KSA, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, etc. and balance against Iran because they are not an outsider, have reason to work with regional states against he common threat of Iran and they are not an outsider. Lastely, the US has a very nice plug against Russian expansion down through the Caucuses and a nice little leg up in Central Asia (let's not also forget that the Middle East is a land bridge to Europe from the Middle East and can transit any number of oil and gas pipelines, that also goes to undermining Russian power in Europe).

 

The US can then be friendly with the Middle East regional power without the blowback that supporting Israel creates (sorry Mar). If the US can manage it properly it seems like a very sound strategic move.

 

So for now, expect turkey to continue to beat up on Israel and cooperate with Iran. Behind the scenes Turkey and Iran will be rushing to gain an intelligence edge on each other to prepare for their inevitable rivalry. Turkey will come out in top because they are a maritime power (not just the Med, but check out the Bosporus Straits, the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara), an economic power and have a very nice geographic position what with mountain buffers and nice, soft, protected plains in to the Danube basin.

 

For the future expect there to be a split between Turkey and the US. The US has retained its strength by denying any other nation or power the strength to grow outside of its region. Turkey will be in a position to have naval strength, European influence and direct access to the strategic energy deposits of the Middle East. The US will not be able to risk counting on Turkish benevolence and alignment to US interests in the region and Europe and will move to cut them down as much as possible. The best way to do that will be to support some one else in the region so that Turkey spends its resources competing with them in the Middle East than with the US in Europe. That nation could be Egypt, Iran or anyone else that has created a strong deterrence capability (such as nukes, proxy forces, navy, etc.).

 

 

 

This is all laid out for us to read. Geography shows is what is possible, history shows us what has already been tried and economy tells us where the balance is right now. The rest is just connecting the dots.

 

 

 

 

/yes geek

[Zig]

 

This is all laid out for us to read. Geography shows is what is possible, history shows us what has already been tried and economy tells us where the balance is right now. The rest is just connecting the dots.

 

 

So, in other words your philosophy is that the unthinkable can't occur? Everything is predictable, is that what you're saying?

[Decyferon]

wow Chris, I can't say anything to any of that, it all makes sense. It was kinda what I was thinking but I was thinking in much simler terms.

 

But props on a response like that - keep spreading that knowledge mate.

[christo-f]

*Edit, to Zig.

 

 

Hmmm, not necessarily.

 

More so that geography doesn't change and neither does physics and that then reeealllly narrows the options down. Put it this way, Madagascar isn't about to send a tank division in to Belarus because tanks don't go across water.

 

Secondly, economics and technology tell you what is possible at the moment. Put it this way, Madagascar isn't about to catapult a shape shifting laser in to orbit to turn the Eiffel Tower in to Godzilla because that technology doesn't exist and even if it did Madagascar couldn't afford it anyway.

 

There have been trillions of people before us and only a fool would assume that we are smarter than them by virtue of time. And a look back through thousands of years of history shows some amazing creativity and you can thereby largely learn by other people's mistakes and successes.

 

Take this all in to consideration (which requires a massive amount of information and understanding, which some would say results in intelligence) and you can narrow down the probabilities to a very fine point.

 

 

After that you need to use rational thought. Leaders of countries are not stupid. As much as it pains me to say so, George W, Bush, Hugo Chavez, Kim Jong Il, Mao Zedong, Evita Perez, Robert Mugabe, Boris Yeltsin, John Howard, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, etc. etc. are all very smart and intelligent people. They all compete for a job where wits, money, murder, influence, strategy and foresight are required. Dumb people don't compete on a level like that and win, the system kills dumb people off very quickly.

 

Therefore we can assume that leaders of nations are rational people and rational people will make rational decisions. In their position the rational decision is one that will keep them in power. To stay in power you must have a country, that means protecting the national interest before protecting your vote. The best example of this is Tony Blair and G.W. Bush. They both invaded Iraq out of national interest, against the electorate. they succeeded in the invasion and then turned their focus to win the next election, which both succeeded in doing. National interest must come first because if you don't have a country to rule over then electorate doesn't exist any more.

 

So, geography, economics, and technology all define what is possible and history gives you an idea of what may succeed and what may fail. Take what is left and do a cost benefit analysis of all these choices and the one that has the most benefit for the nation, regardless of international law, right and wrong or moral values is what the leader of almost every country will choose.

 

Best bit is you can say "They will more than likely choose A but if they choose B they will fail and the consequences of failure are......".

 

 

 

 

There are three issues here on this website that I will support what I am saying. One that is about 3 years old saying that the new Cold War is about to start (since then Russia has invaded Georgia, retaken Ukrainian leadership, created a Customs Union in Belarus and Kazakhstan, created the CRRF under the CSTO that forward deploys Russian troops (ggogle it), deployed an uprising in Kyrgyzstan and started long range strategic bomber and submarine patrols in the Atlantic and the Pacific. My thread is there and all these things can be found in open source.

 

Secondly I said that the global financial crisis would not result in another depression (not my thead but easy to find). I will not say that we are out of the woods yet, we still have to survive the PIIGS before I can say that. But, I am confident enough to say that it will not cause another depression (I use the term depression as that defined by the economic conditions experienced in the US between WW1 and WW2 that resulted in the "New Deal").

 

Third is this thread. I made the claim, in the thread title that there was a new dynamic in the Middle East due to the redistribution of power that has been a result of the fall of the Soviet Union (absolutely nothing to do with Israel killing Palestinians). By this time next year I strongly suggest that Israel will be largely weakened, Turkey strongly strengthened and Iran working to regain lost ground to Turkey. In 5-7 years time the Israel/US love affair will be over and it will be the US/Turkey love affair. If this doesn't happen, it will be the exact opposite and will reflect a total failure of US policy. Us will be backing a severely weakened Israel and covertly supporting Iran (happened before, Iran Contra scandal) against a very strong Turkey.

 

 

If this all turns to shit, I'm quitting my job and signing on to the 12 under a new username!!

[christo-f]

Few fundamental mistakes in post #114

 

Persia has been an empire that has spanned across to the Levant before, that means that geography allows Turkish expansion in to the Med.

 

Should read

 

Persia has been an empire that has spanned across to the Levant before, that means that geography allows IRANIAN expansion in to the Med.

 

 

and

 

Israel want in on the EU, the US doesn't want Turkey to align with Iran/Syria/HB so it gives it a sweet backhander.

 

Should read

 

 

TURKEY want in on the EU, the US doesn't want Turkey to align with Iran/Syria/HB so it gives it a sweet backhander.

[Decyferon]

damn such critical mistakes, time to resign that username I expect to see Christo-G very soon

[lord_casek]

Israel’s Greatest Loss: Its Moral Imagination

If a people who so recently experienced such unspeakable inhumanities cannot understand the injustice and suffering its territorial ambitions are inflicting, what hope is there for the rest of us?

By By Henry Siegman

 

http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/israel-s-greatest-loss-its-moral-imagination-1.295600