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ATTENTION: Southern California Residents

Discussion in 'Channel Zero' started by sarcasm, Apr 16, 2004.

  1. sarcasm

    sarcasm Elite Member

    Joined: Oct 30, 2003 Messages: 3,352 Likes Received: 35
    Expert warns California to brace for big quake by September
    Thu Apr 15,10:20 AM ET


    LOS ANGELES (AFP) - A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claiming to have cracked a holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will soon hit southern California.

    Russian-born University of California at Los Angeles professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can foresee major quakes by tracking minor temblors and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way.

    And he has made a chilling prediction that a quake measuring at least 6.4 magnitude on the Richter scale will hit a 31,200-square-kilometer (12,000-square-mile) area of southern California by September 5.

    The team at UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics accurately predicted a 6.5-magnitude quake in central California last December as well as an 8.1-magnitude temblor that struck the Japanese island of Hokkaido in September.

    "Earthquake prediction is called the Holy Grail of earthquake science, and has been considered impossible by many scientists," said Keilis-Borok, 82. "It is not impossible.

    "We have made a major breakthrough, discovering the possibility of making predictions months ahead of time, instead of years, as in previously known methods."

    If accurate, the prediction method would be critical in an area like California, which is criss-crossed by fault lines that have spawned devastating quakes over the years including ones which ravaged San Francisco in 1989 and Los Angeles in 1994.

    That has given credence to his research, which was endorsed by a state panel, the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, earlier this month.

    "Even two years back it was practically a dirty word to say earthquake prediction," said Nancy Sauer, an organiser of the annual conference of the Seismological Society of America which began Wednesday in Palm Springs.

    The UCLA team -- made up of US, Japanese, Canadian, European and Russian experts in pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory, statistical physics and public safety -- says it has developed algorithms to detect earthquake patterns.

    The experts predicted in June an earthquake measuring 6.4 or higher would strike within nine months in a 496-kilometer (310-mile) region of central California, including San Simeon, where a 6.5-magnitude temblor struck December 22, killing two people.

    In July, they said they predicted a magnitude 7.0 or higher quake in a region that included Hokkaido by December 28. The September 25 quake fell within that period.

    Now they predict a major quake will hit an area that stretches across desert regions to the east of Los Angeles, home to around nine million people, including the Mojave desert and the resort town of Palm Springs, which lies near the notorious San Andreas fault.

    That is where experts began gathering for the Seismological Society of America conference that looks sure to be dominated by passionate discussion of Keilis-Borok's prediction method.

    "There is something going on," Sauer told the Desert Sun newspaper in Palm Springs. "People are at least willing to entertain the idea. It is not seen so much as junk science now."

    Another seismic expert, University of Oregon professor Ray Weldon, was scheduled to present findings to the conference that appear to support Keilis-Borok's research by saying the San Andreas fault is about to enter a new and violent period of shaking.

    The data, according to the Desert Sun, was gathered over 18 years around the famed fault, showing it is under high levels of stress.



    "You could consider that support (for Keilis-Borok's research)," Weldon was quoted as saying. "But I dont lend any insight or support to a window of time."

    But researchers still point to the fact that the science of earthquake prediction has been notoriously inaccurate and the geographic area targeted by the UCLA team for an imminent quake is very large.

    "It is not specific," said Susan Hough, a seismologist for the US Geological Survey based in Pasadena, near Los Angeles. "Theyve made three predictions and two of them have been borne out."

    Keilis-Borok himself acknowledged the caution expressed by some of his colleagues. "Application of non-linear dynamics and chaos theory is often counter-intuitive, so acceptance by some research teams will take time."

    But if his latest prediction that the earth will move in the area around Los Angeles within the next five months proves accurate, his research could end up saving lives and transforming seismology.




    its been quite a long time since a big earthquake has hit.... i dunno about u, but im stalkin up on bottled water...
     
  2. gfreshsushi

    gfreshsushi Senior Member

    Joined: Sep 21, 2003 Messages: 2,244 Likes Received: 1
    let southern cali fall off into the ocean for all i care, i live on a hill.
     
  3. TheoHuxtable

    TheoHuxtable Senior Member

    Joined: Jan 5, 2004 Messages: 2,113 Likes Received: 1
    That fuckin sucks. I'm gonna be moving back to L.A. in May.
     
  4. JUDONO?

    JUDONO? Senior Member

    Joined: Jan 5, 2002 Messages: 1,935 Likes Received: 0
    who gives a fuck its not like we never had a quake before. its like telling people in florida they're gonna have a huge fucking hurricane. DONE!!!
     
  5. synaps

    synaps Senior Member

    Joined: Mar 8, 2002 Messages: 1,644 Likes Received: 0
    people stalk water?



    poor water ...
    but i suppose with the prices one pays for the shit, i'm not suprised that it has stalkers
     
  6. sarcasm

    sarcasm Elite Member

    Joined: Oct 30, 2003 Messages: 3,352 Likes Received: 35
    yea but u don't hear people in florida saying "oh its just another hurricane...mehhh" they fuckin go out and board up their homes and what not.... i've lived in so cal all my life, and even tho the not so big of earth quakes are enjoyable/not a big deal... if a fuckin big one like 6.5+ strikes... its northridge all over again..
     
  7. duh-rye-won

    duh-rye-won Member

    Joined: Aug 8, 2001 Messages: 580 Likes Received: 2
    if i was a planet i would have a lot of gnarly earthquakes. well, i guess you can't call it an earthquake on less it's on earth. so first i need a name for the planet i would be... umm... i'm drawing a blank hurr.
     
  8. Fuck Ya'll

    Fuck Ya'll Member

    Joined: Nov 24, 2003 Messages: 601 Likes Received: 0
    Earthquake drills in elementary school sucked.
     
  9. TheoHuxtable

    TheoHuxtable Senior Member

    Joined: Jan 5, 2004 Messages: 2,113 Likes Received: 1
    Eat a dick.

    And I love it when people keep saying California is supposed to" fall off in the ocean," as if in an mere instant. It got misinterpreted in the media somewhere along the line I guess, and people in turn let their ignorance get the best of them. T

    The fact is, as the tectonic plates on each side of the San Andreas Fault move in opposite directions, California will break apart, and almost half of the state will become an island, BUT OVER THE COURSE OF MILLIONS OF YEARS. It's happening gradually... it won't effect Californians in this lifetime or the next or the next -- so don't grab your snorkels yet!
     
  10. atrocks

    atrocks New Jack

    Joined: Nov 25, 2002 Messages: 0 Likes Received: 0
    (see: cherry blossoms)
     
  11. sarcasm

    sarcasm Elite Member

    Joined: Oct 30, 2003 Messages: 3,352 Likes Received: 35
    at least they took time out of learning ur addition and subtration rules
     
  12. TheoHuxtable

    TheoHuxtable Senior Member

    Joined: Jan 5, 2004 Messages: 2,113 Likes Received: 1
    The difference IS that this one is supposed to be emitted from the San Andreas fault itself -- the largest fault line in the United States... all of the other quakes in the recent past have came from smaller subsidiary fault lines created by the San Andreas.

    So it's not going to be the same as the Northridge one in '94 (which came from a smaller fault line) -- it's supposed to be bigger. The last earthquake in Southern California from the San Andreas happened in 1857. The last that happened in California period was the San Francisco quake of 1907. Most of the city was destroyed. Of course, building codes are way better now than they were then.
     
  13. Fuck Ya'll

    Fuck Ya'll Member

    Joined: Nov 24, 2003 Messages: 601 Likes Received: 0
    Is anyone else watching Courtney Love on The Tonight Show right now? Why is it that no matter what she does she always looks like a cracked out slut?

    Also, Southern Cali is more likely to be covered by the ocean rather than break off.
     
  14. sarcasm

    sarcasm Elite Member

    Joined: Oct 30, 2003 Messages: 3,352 Likes Received: 35
    you jockin the discovery channel aren't you?
     
  15. nomadawhat

    nomadawhat Veteran Member

    Joined: Aug 24, 2001 Messages: 5,001 Likes Received: 2
    STOP!!! you're scaring me,
     
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