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What the fuck is going on in Ukraine?


KILZ FILLZ
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Corn itself is a Grain, in fact one of the grains china suspiciously bought up @6PenniesIn the United States we make our own Ammonium Nitrate. So that's not really a counter. There are grain reserves, and strategic grain reserves.  We do have a massive amount of debt, and a very bloated balance sheet on the stock market that if it crashed because the Chinese, who are pretending to not be plotting actually are, and pull their investments/debt. 

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@Mercer @6Pennies 

 

I am trying to follow you guys.  So basically this is a power grab.  I mean, duh 🙄  but basically Russia is acting up on things that have been long over due on their part and China is capitalizing on this economically but Russia needs a blessing?   Yes, No? 

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1 hour ago, Mercer said:

Corn itself is a Grain, in fact one of the grains china suspiciously bought up @6PenniesIn the United States we make our own Ammonium Nitrate. So that's not really a counter. There are grain reserves, and strategic grain reserves.  We do have a massive amount of debt, and a very bloated balance sheet on the stock market that if it crashed because the Chinese, who are pretending to not be plotting actually are, and pull their investments/debt. 

 Yep, I posted about the US's Ammonium Nitrate, buddy says we could ramp up production to help out Europe....

 

Still trying to follow the theory.   Chinese chasing out/crashing out stock market drives up the price of bread.  What's the connection back to Ammonium Nitrate?

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So in short what I am understanding about the conflict. Is the world is allowing Ukraineto fall to Russia as to avoid a world war all while making as much money as countries can off of this short war.

 

Pretty much,  Ukraine is the the catalyst of a pump and dump scheme.

 

 

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58 minutes ago, ndv said:

So in short what I am understanding about the conflict. Is the world is allowing Ukraineto fall to Russia as to avoid a world war all while making as much money as countries can off of this short war.

 

Pretty much,  Ukraine is the the catalyst of a pump and dump scheme.

 

 



Game theory says Russia only wants the Eastern side of Ukraine with the middle being a DMZ type buffer. 
 

You're right on about the money; Anything like this is going to be a moneygrab.

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In this global economy, there is no "ours" or "theirs" collectively, especially in a non communist country. If our commercial reserves of grains here can get more money for their grain dropping it into a ship and selling it in Europe they will. If Europe's main supplier of Ammonium Nitrate cuts them off, Europe will either drive our prices for ammonium nitrate up, or plant less grains, and import more of our later. Everything I just described increases the food prices globally, not just China, Russia, Europe, the U.S. ect.

 

This is why China's conspicuously ridiculous spending last year looks so suspect this year after Putin's February surprise cutting ammonium nitrate. China literally scooped up 69% of the worlds corn for it's own strategic reserve. I'm not sure on the numbers for Soy, and Wheat but they're similar, at the time it was so insane, the fact they bought so much the price went up almost 200% in many markets, and they still kept buying more.

 

I'm no expert on farming, but I do know some farms keep large private reserves, but almost exclusively to feed their own livestock. Other grain reserves they'd deal with are the larger ag-corp style commercial reserves. The grain that sit's in these reserves is resold later, meaning the grain leaving them goes to the highest bidder at time of purchase. We could have a great harvest last year, full reserves, and still end up paying more for that grain as end consumers if the price of that commodity goes up.

 

A strategic reserve, isn't like a commercial reserve. Commercial reserve holders are able to estimate with fairly good accuracy demand throughout the following year after a harvest. Investor place bets on the variable, what the price will be. No matter the price fluctuation, it's not in their best interests to purchase much more volume than what they expect to sell.

 

A strategic reserve is one a Federal Government puts together. This stores more grain, on top of what the commercial reserves will store because it's paid for with tax money, so it doesn't matter to the buyer what the future price is, this is a backup to keep people from rioting from high prices. It may even be intentionally dumped on the market later at a loss. Historically it's an excellent tool to prepare for war, or even signal to other's you're ready.

 

Not to be confused with any other type of commercial, or private reserve, this is wikipedia's definition of a strategic grain reserve.

 

Quote

A strategic grain reserve is a government stockpile of grain for the purpose of meeting future domestic or international needs. In the United States, such programs have included the Farmer-Owned Grain Reserve (1977–1996), Food Security Wheat Reserve (1980–1996), Food Security Commodity Reserve (1996–1998), and most recently the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust (1998–).

 

That said, food prices have gone up minimum estimate 20% over this last year alone, most of that due to China bidding the price up last year, with the remainder due to a minimum estimated 7.5% inflation. I estimate inflation, and increasing food prices at much more, but just going with the mainstream narrative on those numbers.

 

China is in an excellent position grains wise no matter what this fall's harvest, guess who isn't? The rest of us. Especially now that Europe is guaranteed to come up short locally now. There are few things that can spark civil unrest better than people not being able to afford to eat, or worse yet, a food supply that's not enough no matter the price. I don't see the latter as a feasible scenario yet, but the former is for sure 100% guaranteed to go down, I put my word on it. We couldn't afford to stock our own strategic reserves, so we're in a position where we're good on supply for the rest of this year, but not in a position to drop the price if needed by dumping more than projected demand.

 

To sum it all up, the intentional cutoff of fertilizers to Europe right before ramping up the Ukraine invasion, and China stocking up in a way people had trouble making sense of screams coordination, but nobody seems to be noticing in the media, outside of the economic thought circles.

 

Here's a video from last May when people were trying to figure out WTF China is up to. The dude blows it off, no clue, say's China isn't going to cancel the orders because "they need it" and that's where the speculation starts with Brazil, and the only market indicators at the time.

 

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/corn/heres-why-china-aggressively-buying-new-crop-corn-us

 

 

 

 

20 hours ago, KILZ FILLZ said:

FF553088-67AF-42A2-9149-FDED5922173D.jpeg


 

 

 

 

 

 

This shit is outside of our control, only thing we can do is prepare. That commodities market chart up there kinda proves my point. When wheat future's charts start looking like crypto, it's time to start paying attention. Those who's fortunes dictate a need to know, they already know what's about to go down this year looking at where their money is being bet. They might even be placing safe bets, and it could triple the price, instead of just doubling come fall harvest. Watch what happens in Ukraine, a net grain exporter, and the rest of Europe by summer.

 

I don't invest in commodities, but with that said, there are tactics the individual can take to invest wisely themselves. First thing you can do is stock your own strategic reserves of food now, at home. Mark my words, food prices are not going to go down and will spike. Might be a good year to expand the garden.

 

I'd also advise investing in handshakes. I'd estimate 15-25% of my food comes direct on the local gray market with people I shake hands with, and I'm shooting for 50% this year. This will be the first year I scoop a 1/4 cow before beef is on par with caviar prices. Down from day one customers get preference when you've got more customers than supply. Good chance that handshake might become more valuable than a  grocery store loyalty card discount. 

 

They have farmer's you can shake hands with if you're rural or drive, they have food/gardening co-op systems if you're in suburbs, or a city. There are even subscription based setups direct with local food producers, but again, if it's over the internet, and you're not shaking hands, it's not as good as one where you are. We're pretty much urban/suburban, but our own subscriptions and trips out to farms have at the very least given us access to healthier options.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Mercer said:

In this global economy, there is no "ours" or "theirs" collectively, especially in a non communist country. If our commercial reserves of grains here can get more money for their grain dropping it into a ship and selling it in Europe they will. If Europe's main supplier of Ammonium Nitrate cuts them off, Europe will either drive our prices for ammonium nitrate up, or plant less grains, and import more of our later. Everything I just described increases the food prices globally, not just China, Russia, Europe, the U.S. ect.

 

This is why China's conspicuously ridiculous spending last year looks so suspect this year after Putin's February surprise cutting ammonium nitrate. China literally scooped up 69% of the worlds corn for it's own strategic reserve. I'm not sure on the numbers for Soy, and Wheat but they're similar, at the time it was so insane, the fact they bought so much the price went up almost 200% in many markets, and they still kept buying more.

 

I'm no expert on farming, but I do know some farms keep large private reserves, but almost exclusively to feed their own livestock. Other grain reserves they'd deal with are the larger ag-corp style commercial reserves. The grain that sit's in these reserves is resold later, meaning the grain leaving them goes to the highest bidder at time of purchase. We could have a great harvest last year, full reserves, and still end up paying more for that grain as end consumers if the price of that commodity goes up.

 

A strategic reserve, isn't like a commercial reserve. Commercial reserve holders are able to estimate with fairly good accuracy demand throughout the following year after a harvest. Investor place bets on the variable, what the price will be. No matter the price fluctuation, it's not in their best interests to purchase much more volume than what they expect to sell.

 

A strategic reserve is one a Federal Government puts together. This stores more grain, on top of what the commercial reserves will store because it's paid for with tax money, so it doesn't matter to the buyer what the future price is, this is a backup to keep people from rioting from high prices. It may even be intentionally dumped on the market later at a loss. Historically it's an excellent tool to prepare for war, or even signal to other's you're ready.

 

Not to be confused with any other type of commercial, or private reserve, this is wikipedia's definition of a strategic grain reserve.

 

 

That said, food prices have gone up minimum estimate 20% over this last year alone, most of that due to China bidding the price up last year, with the remainder due to a minimum estimated 7.5% inflation. I estimate inflation, and increasing food prices at much more, but just going with the mainstream narrative on those numbers.

 

China is in an excellent position grains wise no matter what this fall's harvest, guess who isn't? The rest of us. Especially now that Europe is guaranteed to come up short locally now. There are few things that can spark civil unrest better than people not being able to afford to eat, or worse yet, a food supply that's not enough no matter the price. I don't see the latter as a feasible scenario yet, but the former is for sure 100% guaranteed to go down, I put my word on it. We couldn't afford to stock our own strategic reserves, so we're in a position where we're good on supply for the rest of this year, but not in a position to drop the price if needed by dumping more than projected demand.

 

To sum it all up, the intentional cutoff of fertilizers to Europe right before ramping up the Ukraine invasion, and China stocking up in a way people had trouble making sense of screams coordination, but nobody seems to be noticing in the media, outside of the economic thought circles.

 

Here's a video from last May when people were trying to figure out WTF China is up to. The dude blows it off, no clue, say's China isn't going to cancel the orders because "they need it" and that's where the speculation starts with Brazil, and the only market indicators at the time.

 

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/corn/heres-why-china-aggressively-buying-new-crop-corn-us

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

This shit is outside of our control, only thing we can do is prepare. That commodities market chart up there kinda proves my point. When wheat future's charts start looking like crypto, it's time to start paying attention. Those who's fortunes dictate a need to know, they already know what's about to go down this year looking at where their money is being bet. They might even be placing safe bets, and it could triple the price, instead of just doubling come fall harvest. Watch what happens in Ukraine, a net grain exporter, and the rest of Europe by summer.

 

I don't invest in commodities, but with that said, there are tactics the individual can take to invest wisely themselves. First thing you can do is stock your own strategic reserves of food now, at home. Mark my words, food prices are not going to go down and will spike. Might be a good year to expand the garden.

 

I'd also advise investing in handshakes. I'd estimate 15-25% of my food comes direct on the local gray market with people I shake hands with, and I'm shooting for 50% this year. This will be the first year I scoop a 1/4 cow before beef is on par with caviar prices. Down from day one customers get preference when you've got more customers than supply. Good chance that handshake might become more valuable than a  grocery store loyalty card discount. 

 

They have farmer's you can shake hands with if you're rural or drive, they have food/gardening co-op systems if you're in suburbs, or a city. There are even subscription based setups direct with local food producers, but again, if it's over the internet, and you're not shaking hands, it's not as good as one where you are. We're pretty much urban/suburban, but our own subscriptions and trips out to farms have at the very least given us access to healthier options.

 

 

Surely just eat Chinese take out

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https://cryptotelegram.com/coinbase-sanctions-russian-users/
 

Sanction Requests
Recently there have been calls from authorities that cryptocurrency exchanges should freeze the accounts of Russian nationals. This is a part of the widespread sanctions meant to pressure Russia for invading Ukraine.
 

Although Russia is not one of the 100 countries the crypto exchange offer services to, it announced the freezing of 25,000 Russian wallet addresses. According to the exchange, “to play our part in these critical economic sanctions, Coinbase implements a multi-layered, global sanctions program.”
 

Coinbase is also exploring geofencing options that block access to users from sanctioned parts of the world. This is also part of its wide-reaching effort to block access from its services to sanctioned actors.

 

 

F0AC6BA8-CDB3-41E2-BC2A-0A54544EECFA.jpeg.85c63797f645451e04f2ef313e2a54da.jpeg

 

 

get your shit off exchanges and onto a wallet!!!

 

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My thing is, the Biden Administration should try to force a negotiation for peace that leaves some face for Putin to save here if they really cared about peace, and our own people's well being. I'd make a treaty about the pipelines staying open, and lifting the sanctions, AKA what's best for our side. State leaders never become state leaders by ignoring their own political goals over what's best for their people. That's what war is. 

 

 

Finesse the slaves, by borderline openly mocking them:

 

 

You're basically immoral now, if you want to still afford to drive to work. Just buy a Tesla you crybaby. Meanwhile everyone in the audience is either on public transit, or will be soon. Only upside is the original motive for dieting is slowly making a comeback.

 

 

 

Just saying, anyone who's trying for anything but peace now deserves the French solution.

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13 hours ago, Mercer said:

My thing is, the Biden Administration should try to force a negotiation for peace that leaves some face for Putin to save here if they really cared about peace, and our own people's well being. I'd make a treaty about the pipelines staying open, and lifting the sanctions, AKA what's best for our side. State leaders never become state leaders by ignoring their own political goals over what's best for their people. That's what war is. 

 

yeah that's what worries me about this. we should be talking about getting putin to the table, because while he started this, he won't accept a humiliating defeat and it makes him more desperate to back him into a corner. i hope the biden admin doesn't wait for more war crimes before acting. i suspect they want more demoralizing losses first — especially if the russian supply lines freeze and starvation sets in 

 

i'm no expert but no matter how ugly it gets i don't think the popular revolution is coming to russia, and even if it does, it'll break down into a pro/anti-west struggle, with china ultimately putting down the revolution and "securing" their patronage state. we don't want that outcome. china needs russia as a provocateur and they'll back them up

Edited by Elena Delle Donne
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also, the russian oil thing seems like a signal to me and nothing else. that oil is going to be increasingly valuable as prices spike and opec cashes in on the opportunity. not a commodities guy but it wouldn't surprise me if it flows to the black market or the grey market and the ever-scrupulous oil industry buys it and labels it something else. 

Edited by Elena Delle Donne
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russian banks are already picking up the yuan and dealing in it. it is becoming their fiat. at a certain point we get to decide how much to fight, and on what fronts we fight, china. and with how much debt of ours they own, it's gonna get ugly. 

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BUT at the same time china is going to have to navigate all the above as their real estate market teeters on the brink of disaster. waves of defaults, developers with sketchy finances, half-finished cities, bad debt everywhere. it could make the housing crisis here look like a bad afternoon (and that crash would unquestionably cascade into the united states, too)  

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