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Profit Over People


abrasivesaint

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@misteraven as you know I'm on the other side of the globe but I'd happily come and work in your shop :classic-smile:

 

 

3 hours ago, misteraven said:

This kid today literally blew my mind and seems to me that his attitude is unfortunately more the norm, than the exception considering I keep seeing the same thing everywhere. 

 

If that's how it is shit is indeed fucked up.

 

I guess the overall situation is different here in Germany.

The majority of people I'd say - both kids fresh out of school as well as old, unemployed farts - would be thrilled to have a job that actually pushes them (and that pays above minimum wage at the same time), instead of just sitting on the couch doing whatever and become depressed.

 

What happened to the from rags to riches mentality? Like, having the motivation to actually make something out of yourself? 

 

How do people without a job actually pay their bills in the states - I was under the impression it's not really possible to be on unemployment pay for extended periods of time.

Surely they can't all be playing Call of Duty or online poker or whatever?

 

 

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@misteravenas for Labor.

 

Supply:

 

  1. The retirement rate has increased drastically. Cashing out your 401k now is hitting all time highs with unnaturally bloated investment values.  The people with the most work experience, are looking at at their retirement accounts, learning they can retire early.
  2. Even the people who can't really afford to retire comfortably, are retiring now. Boomers watch MSM news 24/7, are literally terrified. Retiring now is valued higher because it means less rona risk.
  3. The better compensated positions, formerly held by the most experienced individuals  now are opening up. The next most competent, productive people are securing these positions pushing demand downstream, to the point of where the most competent unskilled people are getting paid well, with low expectations out of necessity.
  4. There are also people missing from the workforce do to the non-psychological, unintentional political consequences of the rona. Some have died, either directly, or indirectly due to lack of care. Others have been temporarily, and permanently disabled from the rona. Some stay home to care for sick relatives 24/7 to mot risk them catching the rona in a care facility etc. These numbers add to supply shortage.
  5. During the initial lockdowns, when unemployment + pandemic checks were gushing out, many people came to the realization they could make arrangements during that time, to remain self sufficient enough to live without a shitty job they hate.
  6. Many people moved back in with their parents, and saved all their pandemic checks.
  7. Many people perfected their own side hustles during the pandemic when they were paid not to work, and wont be returning to the workforce.
  8. Many people fund paying for childcare outweighed one of the parents staying home, plus getting that extended pandemic money just for families with children.

 

Demand:

 

The demand is much simpler understand because it's macroeconomic. There's simply too much of this freshly counterfeited money being pumped into the economy right now. This is how socialism for the rich works. The Fed knows printing almost more than a third of the money in circulation wasn't here before the start of rona reactions, can be masked by record high S&P 500, and Bond Prices they look good, get to keep control of the Fed. The consequences always take longer to catch up.

 

Meanwhile, a many, many steps downstream from the turbocharged printer, shit tons of cheap money is being flooded into the economy, the surplus is being mistakenly invested into poor existing, and new investments (along with some good ones). The (short term) investors are like grasshoppers, ignoring the fact they probably won't get a favorable return on investment to make it through the winter. Meanwhile, the ants (long term investors) know these record numbers are fake, and the harsh realities of real economics always catch up.

 

Just like maxxing out credit cards, inflating the money supply isn't a real solution long term. Sure, it could be used I guess to get us through a rough spot, but it does not improve our economic outlook big picture. Sounds grim for our future, but cognitive emotions like "grim" are meaningless in real world economics, only math is relevant. That same math that tells us inflation is tied directly to money supply will always prevail, is also telling us (if we listen) there's just too much money chasing labor. Things are changing more rapidly than normal. We can't use any data from the past, even what wages were a few days ago, to determine with accuracy how to set wages going forward, other than the fact you know the price will eventually increase because with increased funds for employing people, there will be increased demand for employees.

 

The Economic Effects:

 

Finding a solution is much simpler than it sounds. Right now, most of the inflation resides in investments, some things like houses, etc. that aside from their value as consumer goods, can also be valued as investments and reflect that in the price increases, but all the way downstream from the top, unskilled labor is just starting to see the first ripple effects, it's only going to get worse.

 

Entrepreneurs will continue to increasingly suffer from labor shortage related potential losses. The important thing to keep in mind is everyone else (including their competitors) will also suffer from these labor related potential losses in revenue. In other words, it is of increased consequence businesses retain a loyal base of employees. This is increasingly the key to prosperity

 

With that said, increasing compensation ahead of the inflation ripples into the labor market is what successful entrepreneurs in your position should be doing. Fact is, people like me would never value a free lunch, and free drinks, even an assistant to roll me joints all day as much as the number on the paycheck. You could literally turn an angry socialist McBurgerFlipper, into a long term loyal employee by giving them above current market compensation now.

 

The entrepreneur that increase compensation earlier on, and stays ahead during times of rapid inflation will have a huge productivity advantage over their competitors, that will try to wait until it's probably too late. Their best talent will be poached already, and they most likely will have trouble retaining their worst if they continue to try to surf waves that have long since already passed.

 

If a $15 an hour was good enough for McDonalds to hire/retain relatively unskilled labor before 2020, and McDonald's is at $16 now, I'd go $20 minimum now, and pick and choose between who comes over. A year or two from now McDonald's (if it's still able to be in business) will most likely be at $22 anyway, but their employee's won't be as loyal, or as good as yours.

 

TLDR, the people dumping money into the economy look like heroes now. At least to the people funding their political campaigns, they're getting a record ROI on their investments. Inflation (at least to Agorists like myself) is recognized for what it is, a crooked wealth redistribution program, AKA a socialism for the "connected to the banking industry" class.

 

Western business models moving forward will need to be to adapt, or fail. It should also be noted, successful business models under these same conditions can be found, and modeled in other high inflation economies. Inflation awareness, AKA not waiting too long to raise your own prices, and wages must be added to economic calculations.

 

There's really nothing within any of us can do to increase the supply of labor, the only thing an entrepreneur has any slight control over is their prices, and their wages. Thus other people's willingness, or unwillingness to exchange their labor with them.

Edited by Mercer
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2 hours ago, Mercer said:

The entrepreneur that increase compensation earlier on, and stays ahead during times of rapid inflation will have a huge productivity advantage over their competitors, that will try to wait until it's probably too late. Their best talent will be poached already, and they most likely will have trouble retaining their worst if they continue to try to surf waves that have long since already passed.

 

Appreciate the long insightful post but this paragraph jumped out to me as an absolute race to the bottom. Money only buys loyalty so long as you're providing more than the next guy. Shitty strategy IMO as one can always swoop in and play that card. Maybe snacks and meals aren't the ticket either, but there has to be something out there that does establish loyalty... I offered dude a real career path, super cool work that all of us can be proud to be working on, etc. 

 

I do not believe what we are seeing is a normal by product of poor economic policy. I believe we're witnessing a perfect storm of poor economic policy, during an unprecedented event after decades of cultural shift that encourages shunning responsibility and a steady drum beat that virtually everything out there is a right you're entitled to.

 

I welcome yours and additional members personal perspective / experience. No doubt we can abstract and intellectualize this discussion and for sure that side should be recognized. But I'm boots on the ground, seeing real consequence and not just chiming into a topic du jour. Shit is fucked... I'll retool the business and replace motherfuckers with robots before I start paying good money to people with shitty attitudes. Gone are the days of paying dues... I worked years for free just to gain experience, get my foot in the door and get to be hands on with cool shit. Kills me when some kid thinks he deserves salary because he shows up and scoffs at all I'm providing because he can get a couple dollars more just showing up at a fuckin place like McDonalds. (ironically, they'll probably the first to replace their entire unskilled labor force with robots).

 

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I've worked a ton of jobs that I was proud to work on. When it boils down I am at work for one reason only and it's money.  It isn't anything else. I've moved to where the money is since that is the goal to working. I've had to leave teams that I enjoyed behind because I'm looking out for number one. 
 

Would dude have been fired if he stayed?

Edited by Dirty_habiT
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These young boys are as fucking arrogant as ever @misteraven. I took a couple flooring installers under my wing a few years ago. They wanted to be contractors in their prospective fields. They were both good as shit at what they did. When they told me what they were charging, I was really like “why are you giving yourselves away for so little?” So I paid them more than an installer but less than what they should be charging as a business. I put them in a real sweet spot to make a shit ton of money and have a really solid foundation to jump off. I told them the paperwork they needed to fill out, the insurances they needed to hold ($1300 yr), and a clear path to making 100k a year just doing the bare minimum. What did I get for all this effort? The carpet guys van breaks down and he asks if I can get the carpet to the job while he gets things sorted out! My man! No problem! Doing some quick math in my head I know this dude should have enough money stacked up to have bought a brand new van even if he is trickin money on weed and hoes every weekend. 
 

This dude pulls up in a new Camero. I was like “sweet ride bro! Is this your rental while the van gets fixed?” He said “Naw I bought this.” This fool blew all his money on a sports car and just expected me to fetch his material for him from now on! Fuck outta here! Gone! Good luck!

 

The other dude installed hard wood. He would always do 95% of the job. Never come back to set thresholds. Finally one day I call him and I’m like “Bro! What the fuck?” His response was literally “If you want me to come back out there, I’m gonna need more money. I’m outta gas.”  I just put several 1000 in this mans hands 2 days earlier. Fuck outta here! Gone! Good luck.

 

These two still call me semi regularly looking for work.

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I think you are offering entry level guys a really great position, especially considering the cost of living on the area. 

 

That said, maybe actually laying out a “career track” that shows them their growth both financially and skill wise would entice those with half a brain to stick around.

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52 minutes ago, fat ralphy said:

I think you are offering entry level guys a really great position, especially considering the cost of living on the area. 

 

That said, maybe actually laying out a “career track” that shows them their growth both financially and skill wise would entice those with half a brain to stick around.


Not my job to lay out a career path. It’s my job to provide the opportunity to step up into one. If I need to point it out and hold their hand through it, they’re probably not motivated, let alone qualified. 
 

update: new young kid started today and did well for a temporary fix. Interviewed a promising candidate by phone. Supposed to meet tomorrow but he’s ready to put in his two weeks. Have two other candidates that a trusted friend vouched for, but they haven’t reached out yet. 

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2 hours ago, mr.yuck said:

These young boys are as fucking arrogant as ever @misteraven. I took a couple flooring installers under my wing a few years ago. They wanted to be contractors in their prospective fields. They were both good as shit at what they did. When they told me what they were charging, I was really like “why are you giving yourselves away for so little?” So I paid them more than an installer but less than what they should be charging as a business. I put them in a real sweet spot to make a shit ton of money and have a really solid foundation to jump off. I told them the paperwork they needed to fill out, the insurances they needed to hold ($1300 yr), and a clear path to making 100k a year just doing the bare minimum. What did I get for all this effort? The carpet guys van breaks down and he asks if I can get the carpet to the job while he gets things sorted out! My man! No problem! Doing some quick math in my head I know this dude should have enough money stacked up to have bought a brand new van even if he is trickin money on weed and hoes every weekend. 
 

This dude pulls up in a new Camero. I was like “sweet ride bro! Is this your rental while the van gets fixed?” He said “Naw I bought this.” This fool blew all his money on a sports car and just expected me to fetch his material for him from now on! Fuck outta here! Gone! Good luck!

 

The other dude installed hard wood. He would always do 95% of the job. Never come back to set thresholds. Finally one day I call him and I’m like “Bro! What the fuck?” His response was literally “If you want me to come back out there, I’m gonna need more money. I’m outta gas.”  I just put several 1000 in this mans hands 2 days earlier. Fuck outta here! Gone! Good luck.

 

These two still call me semi regularly looking for work.


yeah, not surprised. 
 

perhaps the next phase of this thread is to talk about how far America will fall over the coming years when you got countries like China making kids go to school for 12 hours a day, six days a week. 
 

meanwhile we’re building safe spaces and arguing about what is actually defines male and female. might sound like some Archie Bunker shit, but prove me wrong. 

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3 hours ago, Dirty_habiT said:

I've worked a ton of jobs that I was proud to work on. When it boils down I am at work for one reason only and it's money.  It isn't anything else. I've moved to where the money is since that is the goal to working. I've had to leave teams that I enjoyed behind because I'm looking out for number one. 
 

Would dude have been fired if he stayed?


not sure your case is a fair study since you’re well into a successful career. I’d assume you ate some shit and paid plenty of dues to engineer opportunities that ultimately resulted in the situation where you can now pick and choose. 
 

we’re talking about a young kid, as green as they come thinking he’s owed something. 
 

if he haven’t quit, yes… based on that conversation I’d have fired him. Perhaps not on the spot, but I’d have immediately started hunting for his replacement. 

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2 hours ago, misteraven said:


Not my job to lay out a career path. It’s my job to provide the opportunity to step up into one. If I need to point it out and hold their hand through it, they’re probably not motivated, let alone qualified. 

Word, but if dude is talking about how Mc Donalds looks like a reasonable choice it seems like he probably wasn't the ideal dude in the first place. 

 

Thinking the carrot on the stick theory might work for these starting gigs……after 6 months X increase hourly etc. Maybe not career path per se but you catch my drift.

 

I would have been stoked just on the potential for pastries and maybe some gear.

 

Retention is gonna be crucial once you guys get up and running - the place looks fucking massive. Gonna be a tough start as you are well aware but looks like fucking crazy potential. The shirts I own from 12oz are already way higher quality than most everything I own……

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On 11/5/2021 at 8:57 PM, metronome said:

Something to keep in mind is that teenagers and early 20s kids are fucking dumb.  Not many kids around those ages are thinking in terms of career or one day maybe retiring.


I’m in my 30s and the idea of retiring seems like a pipe dream. It is probably amplified with younger age. And they’re probably right in assuming they won’t ever be able to retire. That mind set takes loyalty away from someone.Whatever works in the now is what they go with… because what does it matter? Quit and work somewhere else. 

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6 minutes ago, Dark_Knight said:


I’m in my 30s and the idea of retiring seems like a pipe dream. It is probably amplified with younger age. And they’re probably right in assuming they won’t ever be able to retire. That mind set takes loyalty away from someone.Whatever works in the now is what they go with… because what does it matter? Quit and work somewhere else. 

 

So years ago I did a summer student gig when I was still in school (I'm in my late 30s and this would have been my early 20s).

The supervisor/mentor I had was super chill.  Really down to earth guy and just wanted to shoot the shit and talk about life with me and the other student I was working with over the summer months.  One thing he mentioned that stuck out to me was that workers of his generation typically didn't career shift, or if they did it was very rare.  He said that workers of our generation were shifting careers 7x more than the previous, and if you couple that with the prominence of freelance work + disappearing pensions nowadays its no wonder some of these younger folks are jaded.  And an undergrad degree is now more or less the equivalent of a high school diploma, but a diploma never cost boomers 75K to get.

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Spot on @metronome. I’m early 30s, and my

friends are switching jobs every 2-3 years. Sometimes for the better sometimes for the worse. Feel especially in the white collar office world this is very common.


I’ve been with my career for 11 years. Youngest guy in my position by 10+ years. I wish I could say no to safe guaranteed money and break away from what I am doing. It was my plan. In another thread I talked about it. But they kept me around by the promotion/raise. Unsure if it’s the right decision for my overall pursuit of happiness, but damn is it hard to walk from something you’ve spent most of your adult life doing.

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You can chase what ever is pays the best that you qualify for, but at the end of the day, if it’s not something worthwhile or interesting to you, you’ll always feel unfulfilled. Unless the job pays stupid money and you can trade that in for fulfillment elsewhere. I can’t imagine trading in a printing job, to go home smelling like loud and french fries for an extra $8 a day.
 

 

Going to work at McDonalds should always be a last resort, not a bargaining tool.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/8/2021 at 11:37 PM, abrasivesaint said:

When John Deere workers and Gamestop stock holders have bigger balls on holding a line than Democratic politicians. 

 

Direct action > Everything else.

 

UAW at John Deer turned down 2 contracts, and ended up doubling their raises, and improving their pensions, etc. just by sacrificing a couple of paychecks, and waiting it out. Pretty much same thing for anyone who invested in Gamestop during the short squeeze. It's almost as if this simulation we're all living in is telling even the most humble among us, to sacrificed in the present, to enjoy a bigger returns in the future, AKA invest.

 

Most people end up paying an investor interest on their credit card because the default software they're operating on fails to sacrifice present consumption. Some individuals actually crack the code, and can at least break even *golf clap*. Some people see that next flex, that next round of consumption, that urge to relax and procrastinate and resist it. These are the people that actually create the surplus we all enjoy.

 

Some of investors are so productive, and create so much wealth they make way more than can be consumed in an entire lifetime by themselves. Everyone else ends up benefitting from their investments either directly, or indirectly since we're all economically connected. Direct, and indirect beneficiaries of this sacrifice, or for this investment another individual made literally hate the person who sacrificed for it. Default software evolved under centuries of abject neolithic poverty, and dictates if you know someone else in your tribe/family is benefitting from something more than you are, it's not fair, even if you never sacrificed (invested) anything yourself.

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8 hours ago, abrasivesaint said:

 

 

 

He get's it entirely wrong at 1:05:

"our supply went up, so we have to charge you more".

 

He literally has supply/demand backwards. Less supply of a good, or service and the price goes up[. The supply of goods and services was interrupted by the lockdowns when people had to stop working. The supply of goods and services (like lumber for example) went down, not "up". Naturally if demand for lumber stays the same, or increases the price rises. The government mandated that businesses shut down, and less "non-essential" goods and services were rendered. So the price of these goods, and services went up with decreased supply, economics 101. That's how supply and demand works, not this made up shit he's saying.

 

The only thing that increased in availability was money, the money supply increased 40% since March 2020. I might not have a fancy degree, or suit & glasses like this credible looking dude in the video, but I'm going to say that increasing money supply also pushes prices upwards. The government flanked the economy on both sides, by both decreasing the supply of goods & services, while also increasing the supply of money used to purchase said goods & services. This is pretty basic shit to me. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/19/2021 at 9:58 AM, Mercer said:

 

 

He get's it entirely wrong at 1:05:

"our supply went up, so we have to charge you more".

 

He literally has supply/demand backwards. Less supply of a good, or service and the price goes up[. The supply of goods and services was interrupted by the lockdowns when people had to stop working. The supply of goods and services (like lumber for example) went down, not "up". Naturally if demand for lumber stays the same, or increases the price rises. The government mandated that businesses shut down, and less "non-essential" goods and services were rendered. So the price of these goods, and services went up with decreased supply, economics 101. That's how supply and demand works, not this made up shit he's saying.

 

The only thing that increased in availability was money, the money supply increased 40% since March 2020. I might not have a fancy degree, or suit & glasses like this credible looking dude in the video, but I'm going to say that increasing money supply also pushes prices upwards. The government flanked the economy on both sides, by both decreasing the supply of goods & services, while also increasing the supply of money used to purchase said goods & services. This is pretty basic shit to me. 


I read this when you posted it and meant to respond and forgot, then it fell into the void until i went to post that podcast link. 
 

I caught that as well. I’m assuming it was a slip of the tongue, maybe, but i understand the issue with it. I think there’s still valuable information in the video. 
 

You are entirely correct on supply and demand, and i don’t disagree with your comment about flooding money while simultaneously decreasing supply adding to increases. I would agree, pretty basic. 

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