Pass the Corona ese... Novel Corona aka COVID-19

[Mercer]

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature

 

Excellent article if you're like me and thought the level 4 biolab in close proximity to the epicenter (wuhan market) was suspicious. 

[Hua Guofang]

3 hours ago, T4M* said:

This guy.....

 

 

Yeah, not an actual medical doctor, mis-stated statistics, badly.

 

Not even allowed to practice in his actual profession of psychology anymore.

 

Quality journalism, not agenda driven, at all.

 

[Mercer]

I fucking hate Dr. Phil and my hatred is spilling over to other people with the same Texas accent.

[Schnitzel]

the most unlikely coalition

[abrasivesaint]

7 hours ago, Hua Guofang said:

Holy shit, does the US actually have 2000 people dying a day from this, even when the country is in lockdown and doing testing?! Not trying to be sensationalist but I didn't realise that things were actually that bad. It's obviously not in any category close to a flu and I can't believe people in areas where there are serous outbreaks, like Florida, are starting to reopen again. My money is on a second wave.

I think there’s a few factors to consider here..

 

I think it’s being widely overlooked or flat out ignored that New York makes up 44.5% of the US death toll. Add the states that make up the North East region, you’re looking at 67.8% of the reported deaths. The North East Region is roughly the size of Spain.The numbers i put a couple pages back had the US in the same ball park has other major Western countries in Europe, better in some aspects.
 

 

In terms of the North East in relation to the US, here are some numbers i’ve been wasting my time putting together that no one is going to give a shit about or pay attention to, haha. Honestly, it’s been kind of fun though, so..

The North East region makes up roughly: 

 

5.2% of the land area of the US

19.4% of the total population

34.5% of the testing that’s been done

57.9% of the total infections

67.8% of the deaths reported

 

The second wave is all but guaranteed. Quarantine and social distancing are not the final solution. They are measures in place to slow the spread and the toll it’ll take to a manageable scale. I feel like they’ve all but outright said that by this point.

Edited April 21, 2020 by abrasivesaint

[misteraven]

45 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said:

I think there’s a few factors to consider here..

 

I think it’s being widely overlooked or flat out ignored that New York makes up 44.5% of the US death toll. Add the states that make up the North East region, you’re looking at 67.8% of the reported deaths. The North East Region is roughly the size of Spain.The numbers i put a couple pages back had the US in the same ball park has other major Western countries in Europe, better in some aspects.
 

 

In terms of the North East in relation to the US, here are some numbers i’ve been wasting my time putting together that no one is going to give a shit about or pay attention to, haha. Honestly, it’s been kind of fun though, so..

The North East region makes up roughly: 

 

5.2% of the land area of the US

19.4% of the total population

34.5% of the testing that’s been done

57.9% of the total infections

67.8% of the deaths reported

 

The second wave is all but guaranteed. Quarantine and social distancing are not the final solution. They are measures in place to slow the spread and the toll it’ll take to a manageable scale. I feel like they’ve all but outright said that by this point.

Wonder if rent and home sales have gotten cheaper out there?

 

Also worth noting that the areas largest impact, largely correlate with those with the strictest quarantine measures. Not saint causation equals correlation but it makes sense to me that Trump would step back and leave the states to figure things out for themselves. Honestly this is how just about everything should be. The entire valley I live in, made up of several towns, has had 1 single death, yet has been locked down for the better part of two months. The furloughed nearly the entire hospital (600+ people) and you can imagine how many other businesses are dependent on that hospital. This continues much longer, we stand to lose that hospital and no doubt a lot of surrounding businesses. I’m sure many are already lost. 
 

Not a lot of reason to keep people locked in their homes at this point, which isn’t to say some might get sick by going back into the world and a couple might die. Just a part of life and you navigate risk as best as you can while knowing shit occasionally happens. Sky isn’t falling though. 

[ndv]

@Mercer@Hua Guofang
 

 

[KILZ FILLZ]

Mr Phil

[misteraven]

9 hours ago, Hua Guofang said:

Holy shit, does the US actually have 2000 people dying a day from this, even when the country is in lockdown and doing testing?! Not trying to be sensationalist but I didn't realise that things were actually that bad. It's obviously not in any category close to a flu and I can't believe people in areas where there are serous outbreaks, like Florida, are starting to reopen again. My money is on a second wave.

 

Even though things have been handled pretty well by govt and society here in Aust., everyone is pretty concerned about a second wave as we head into Winter and we consider opening borders...., and when we've got the black box of Indonesia to our north, where things are likely pretty bad but nobody knows due to the complexity of the country and their financial position.

 

Not sure where these guys are getting their numbers from or how old the data is, but yesterday’s death toll was 120 people. Out of 331+ million. 
 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

I haven’t found a credible site that discusses the specific economic toll in the USA, but this US News article claims $7 Trillion dollars. We’re now entering a period of discussion on the third stimulus plan so we can count on at least $3 Trillion from that. Source: https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-could-cost-us-7-trillion-cause-worst-job-losses-since-depression-professor-estimates-1493673?amp=1

 

If that number is to be accepted, that means in the USA, our response to this pandemic cost about $164,188,206.60 per person that died as the death toll is at 42,634. Even if you vastly underestimate that number and go with 10% of it, not sure $1.6 million per person as for a response is a number that makes sense. 
 

Granted, we have no idea what the number might be if we just practiced social distancing and wore masks rather than shut down our entire economy for 2+ months, but I think it’s awfully difficult to qualify the response with the benefit of hindsight. Would seem to me to be a pretty compelling argument to open everything backup, minus a handful of the worst hit cities. Those cities, or at least the populations in them, might want to review the quality of life there and perhaps consider the consequences of living in such population dense regions cause this certainly won’t be the last pandemic and the consequences no doubt overlap with so many other potentially bad events that are just as likely, if not more so, to happen. Not suggesting living in a bunker, but it’s an easy hedge to live rural and in most respects my own experience seems to be proving out a far better quality of life. (Not to mention how many other upsides in lifestyle that seem to be a major concern *ironically* for a lot of the urban population *environment*). 

 

But hey, easier to skip the introspection and meaningful personal change and blame Trump. I’m sure if Biden or whoever else was president, the outcome would be wildly different because the government is here to help you and only Trump and the RNC are the ones that are incompetent. 

[misteraven]

*That last bit and in fact most my comment wasn’t directed at you @Hua Guofang so apologies. Reread that and seemed that way. Was just a general comment about the situation from my POV and directed to everyone reading. Should have separated the comment better. 

[where]

Sailor Moon predicted this whole thing. Season 2 episode 32.

[Hua Guofang]

7 hours ago, misteraven said:

Not sure where these guys are getting their numbers from or how old the data is, but yesterday’s death toll was 120 people. Out of 331+ million. 
 

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

 

I'm not sure how you're reading that page, mate, but the numbers for yesterday read 2660 to me.

 

[Hua Guofang]

8 hours ago, abrasivesaint said:

I think there’s a few factors to consider here..

 

I think it’s being widely overlooked or flat out ignored that New York makes up 44.5% of the US death toll. Add the states that make up the North East region, you’re looking at 67.8% of the reported deaths. The North East Region is roughly the size of Spain.The numbers i put a couple pages back had the US in the same ball park has other major Western countries in Europe, better in some aspects.
 

 

In terms of the North East in relation to the US, here are some numbers i’ve been wasting my time putting together that no one is going to give a shit about or pay attention to, haha. Honestly, it’s been kind of fun though, so..

The North East region makes up roughly: 

 

5.2% of the land area of the US

19.4% of the total population

34.5% of the testing that’s been done

57.9% of the total infections

67.8% of the deaths reported

 

The second wave is all but guaranteed. Quarantine and social distancing are not the final solution. They are measures in place to slow the spread and the toll it’ll take to a manageable scale. I feel like they’ve all but outright said that by this point.

 

I don't know how that data matters though.

 

1 - You've compared the US to the other nations that have the highest per capita death tolls. That's the whole point, right, the US death toll is very high for the most advanced nation in the world. In the end, the US is still going to have likely the highest per capita dead out of any modern nation. And that is mind blowing to me.

 

2 - Why is the localisation of cases relevant? It's still the US and it's only 67%, the other 33% still matters

 

3 - Social distancing and lockdowns are not the final answer and I'm not sure anyone has been selling it as that. As you said, it's to slow the rate of infection so the country doesn't get overwhelmed - if it wasn't for the lockdowns and distancing the numbers would probably be in the hundreds of thousands - the people against the lockdowns don't seem to want to understand that. They expect the virus to make it through the country eventually but slow the rate so that people who need care get it and hopefully that the race for the vaccine will be won.

[where]

[Hua Guofang]

2 minutes ago, where said:

Facebook v Science

[ndv]

[misteraven]

18 minutes ago, Hua Guofang said:

I'm not sure how you're reading that page, mate, but the numbers for yesterday read 2660 to me.

 

Right indeed. guess the formatting on mobile goofed me up. one thing to keep in mind is that they announced abut a week ago that any new deaths that couldn't be clearly attributed to something else, was being attributed to complications from COVID. also, they keep finding people that died at home earlier that are also being added in. Certainly a lot of people but here's a link to what normally kills americans. Since this seems to largely kill people with pre existing conditions, I'd suppose these other line items will be much lower. Link: https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death

 

Still doesn't sway my position at all on the subject.

[where]

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by where

[Schnitzel]

still better than PBR

[Hua Guofang]

33 minutes ago, misteraven said:

Right indeed. guess the formatting on mobile goofed me up. one thing to keep in mind is that they announced abut a week ago that any new deaths that couldn't be clearly attributed to something else, was being attributed to complications from COVID. also, they keep finding people that died at home earlier that are also being added in. Certainly a lot of people but here's a link to what normally kills americans. Since this seems to largely kill people with pre existing conditions, I'd suppose these other line items will be much lower. Link: https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death

 

Still doesn't sway my position at all on the subject.

Not sure anything ever would, to be honest with you. But my reason for posting that was not the discussion about proper responses, more so that I can't believe the US govt has balls it up so bad. Most of the world used to look to the US as an inspiration. But, unfortunately, it has been a slow slide since 9/11 though and I fear that his is the plunge at the end of the slope. And that is a pity as whilst the US has also caused a lot of harm to the world, I still think it has given the world the most good out of any other nation/kingdom in history.

Edited April 21, 2020 by Hua Guofang

[ndv]

 

[misteraven]

3 minutes ago, Hua Guofang said:

Not sure anything ever would, to be honest with you. But my reason for posting that was not the discussion about proper responses, more so that I can't believe the US govt has balls it up so bad. Most of the world used to look to the US as an inspiration. But, unfortunately, it has been a slow slide since 9/11 though and I fear that his is the plunge at the end of the slope. And that is a pity as whilst the US has also caused a lot of harm to the world, I still think it has given the world the most good out of any other nation/kingdom in history.

Unfortunately the USA has been in decline since long before 9/11, though I'd agree the pace seems to have really picked up after that event. I've had the discussion with several friends... Many politicians are almost acting like they're aware something is on the horizon and just going for broke, with no fucks really given in their audacity. Reminds me of the atmosphere just before looting where everyone is amped up and just waiting to see who actually throws the brick so they can all just get at it. Truly feels like that to me.

 

That being said, I'm happy to have my perceptions challenged and do revise my positions when that's done successfully. You just happen to often come at things with far more trust and acceptance than I do, at least from what I see. Could be that you haven't spent your life in the USA but likely that we've gone through life with two entirely different experiences. In fact the decline you've just noted plays a large part in my lack of trust. I think where we differ is you seem to perhaps think its just carelessness or mismanagement of some sort, whereas I believe it's all being engineered.

[Hua Guofang]

@misteraven  I agree that the big difference is that you think it's engineered and I think its human faults at work. I have worked in the US, alongside govt and I guess it's that I've worked in organisations that were once framed as 'part of the new world order' but the reality was that it was an organisation that hired undergraduates to write shit to make money, nothing more and no 'world govt' bullshit like the internet warriors claimed. So I've got, at least a half decent grasp on the culture and the way things work there.

 

I still work alongside govt now here in Australia, and whilst I do see a lot of bad shit occurring - not saying everything is fine - I still see from the inside, and truth is most often is that it's either a fuck up or it's just arseholes doing shit for personal gain. There's no organised approach, it's often as chaotic and stupid as it can get. But when people expect the worst they tend to find a way to fit all information into their perceptions instead of taking each data point on its own merits and rarely do they consider alternative explanations (often the most obvious and likely ones too). It seems, instead to be a pattern where if they can make it fit their expectations, that's what they immediately believe, regardless of the potential for other, just as possible explanations.

 

And I see that here on 12OZ a lot. People look for what confirms their existing beliefs rather than asking questions. Or, the questions they ask already have an answer and they are only being asked to try and convince others. I know I do the same thing as well, we're only human, and that gets back to the first sentence of this post.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Hua Guofang

[Hua Guofang]

Oh, forgot to post this - something that might give some of you a giggle:

 

 

[abrasivesaint]

1 hour ago, Hua Guofang said:

2 - Why is the localisation of cases relevant? It's still the US and it's only 67%, the other 33% still matters

Not saying they don’t matter, but clearly the majority of the problem is in a small region of the country. That region makes up the 5.2% land area that i mentioned, Spain is just shy of 5%..

 

Imagine if 67% of the death toll of Europe was in Spain, wouldn’t seem like a European problem at the moment as much as it would a problem for Spain. 
 

1 hour ago, Hua Guofang said:

3 - Social distancing and lockdowns are not the final answer and I'm not sure anyone has been selling it as that. As you said, it's to slow the rate of infection so the country doesn't get overwhelmed - if it wasn't for the lockdowns and distancing the numbers would probably be in the hundreds of thousands - the people against the lockdowns don't seem to want to understand that. They expect the virus to make it through the country eventually but slow the rate so that people who need care get it and hopefully that the race for the vaccine will be won.

I cant speak for Europe as i’ve never been, but once you get out of the North East things start to spread out drastically. There’s a lot of open space out there. Somewhere like where @misteravenis at just simply won’t see a spread as fast and far reaching. Not saying it’s any sort of absolute reasoning why things are worse up there, but i think it’s an important factor. 
 

I’m seeing some serious pushback against lockdown’s in New Orleans. Now while they’re generally distancing, the parks are looking more packed than i’ve ever seen them, probably because there’s simply nowhere else to spend their time, haha. If we don’t see a radical spike, i think it might be something worth saying as to where we currently are in the grand scheme of the virus because a few weeks ago we were deemed the new New York until Detroit came along. 
 

They’re already talking about bringing back elective surgeries in the next 2 weeks. Outpatient/day surgeries only. Meaning no major surgeries that require extensive care, and no ind is staying overnight unless they absolutely must. 

[Hua Guofang]

14 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said:

Not saying they don’t matter, but clearly the majority of the problem is in a small region of the country. That region makes up the 5.2% land area that i mentioned, Spain is just shy of 5%..

 

Imagine if 67% of the death toll of Europe was in Spain, wouldn’t seem like a European problem at the moment as much as it would a problem for Spain. 
 

I don't see why any of this matters, who cares if the majority of the problem is in a smaller part of the country, at the moment. Why is that important?

 

Secondly, there is still 33% of cases, which is tens of thousands as well as other local outbreaks in the rest of the country. I just don't know why your analysis is relevant to the situation. I'm not saying it isn't, I'm just saying I don't understand why it is.

[misteraven]

Just now, Hua Guofang said:

I don't see why any of this matters, who cares if the majority of the problem is in a smaller part of the country, at the moment. Why is that important?

 

Secondly, there is still 33% of cases, which is tens of thousands as well as other local outbreaks in the rest of the country. I just don't know why your analysis is relevant to the situation. I'm not saying it isn't, I'm just saying I don't understand why it is.

Well, your initial comment was in regards to the USA. He’s stating that a tiny fraction of the USA is responsible for the lions share of cases. That might imply that you can’t make a blanket statement in regards to the USA’s response to this. It would also imply that perhaps different regions need different responses / solutions to combat the real would realities in those areas. So if you would have said, you can’t believe how poorly NYC responded to the situation, it might be a more accurate statement. 
 

That’s how I’m understanding it. 

[misteraven]

1 hour ago, Hua Guofang said:

I still see from the inside, and truth is most often is that it's either a fuck up or it's just arseholes doing shit for personal gain. There's no organised approach, it's often as chaotic and stupid as it can get. But when people expect the worst they tend to find a way to fit all information into their perceptions instead of taking each data point on its own merits and rarely do they consider alternative explanations (often the most obvious and likely ones too). It seems, instead to be a pattern where if they can make it fit their expectations, that's what they immediately believe, regardless of the potential for other, just as possible explanations.

My experience differs from yours. I’ve also been on the *inside* of certain situations and I’ve seen how there was an agenda at play. How protocols and responses were being engineered to create predetermined results that aligned with the goals of the agenda, as well as how the agenda and its methods ran counter to the best interest of those being targeted. How greed took clear priority over integrity and how pretty much any method to achieve goals were placed on the table and encouraged. It wasn’t even disguised or up for debate. 
 

Likewise, I’ve also been told details of events by people involved in certain military type actions that were very far from the narrative that was put forth by media that followed the same sort of scripts that I saw for myself with my own experiences (just with far higher stakes). 
 

All in all, I’m not saying there’s a grand conspiracy that half the world is in on. I’m also not saying there’s not plenty of kooks and bullshit as well... Part of why it’s so easy to hide shit in plain site. But I have seen first hand, and even participated to limited extent, in agendas coordinated by a small minority that had huge implications and a huge influence on companies and people far beyond those directly involved. How easy it was to get others on board with it indirectly by manipulating circumstances that would encourage or compel certain behaviors that aligned with the overall goal, or at the very least, a welcomed by product of it. 
 

I don’t underestimate the human ability for greed, whether it’s in the pursuit of money or power. I saw enough of both to only imagine what lengths some humans would go to when the prize for either is exponentially more. Surprised anyone would question that at all since all of us have seen examples of it, even if it wasn’t through personal involvement. Now add several more decimal points to the situation and start considering how much more some might be willing to do and what resources they might be able to muster up in the pursuit of it. 

[Hua Guofang]

1 minute ago, misteraven said:

Well, your initial comment was in regards to the USA. He’s stating that a tiny fraction of the USA is responsible for the lions share of cases. That might imply that you can’t make a blanket statement in regards to the USA’s response to this. It would also imply that perhaps different regions need different responses / solutions to combat the real would realities in those areas. So if you would have said, you can’t believe how poorly NYC responded to the situation, it might be a more accurate statement. 
 

That’s how I’m understanding it. 

Sure, but localised responses are secondary and are most effective when framed by the national response, which must come first. There has to be knowledge collection and awareness (CDC, NSC working groups, etc.) coordination, information sharing, resource mobility, international responses, funding, etc. etc. That is all a federal responsibility and can only take place at the national level. If your largest city and surrounding city is being fucked by a virus, that impacts the rest of the nation in terms of economics and contagion risk, just to name the two most obvious issues. It's 100% a national problem that requires a national response to guide the local responses, with on the ground developments dividing how each state and municipality manage their unique risk profiles.

 

Unfortunately, the federal approach, which states have to take their lead from in a large degree, for the first weeks/month was that it was nothing to worry about and that it will all magically disappear. It's that response why there are now cases all across the US with 2500+ people dying a day, even whilst harsh measures are in place. The impact didn't need to be this harsh, there are many countries - all most all countries - that have handled the outbreak better.

 

I mean, you can spin it any way you want. But the indisputable reality is that America is one of - if not the most - severely impacted countries and for the most advanced country in the world, that is a spectacular failure.

[CALIgula]

From my city's protests yesterday .....

 

 

 

Some of these people are just bat shit fucking crazy!