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Pass the Corona ese... Novel Corona aka COVID-19


abrasivesaint

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3 hours ago, Hua Guofang said:

many other countries responded appropriately and don't have infection and death rates anything like the US has

So i saw this graph last night. This website seems to be pretty accurate and on top of numbers coming in.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

FDAD911D-9EA0-4BAA-B182-770984756EF5.thumb.jpeg.83c9e754ec66a27fe9ed7d233e5b4439.jpeg

 

And it got me thinkin.. 
 

So I took from the top 11 non-US countries, excluded China, Turkey and Iran because i wanted to focus on Europe. I combined New York with the bordering states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, as these 5 states in the north east part of the country make up 60.9% of the cases in the US, and are in the top 12 cases for the US. These states lumped together are also roughly comparable in land size to France, Spain, Germany or the UK. I also added numbers for the USA as a whole. 
 

So.. Here are some rounded numbers of rates. 

 

% of Tested vs Population: 

Germany - 2% 

Spain/North East States - 1.9%
Italy - 1.8% 

Belgium - 1.1%
USA - .99% 

Netherlands - .85%
UK - .62% 

France - .49%

 

% of Tested that were Positive: 

Germany - 7.8%
Italy - 14.7%
Spain - 19.6% 

USA/Netherlands - 19.7% 

UK - 24.6% 

Belgium - 25.9% 

North East States - 36%

France - 44.2%  

 

% of Total Deaths of Total Positive Cases: 

Germany - 2.8%

USA - 4.4%
North East States - 4.8%
Spain - 10.5%
Netherlands - 11.3%
France - 11.6%
Italy - 13.1% 

UK - 13.3% 

Belgium - 13.9% 
 

 

So as it shows in the graph and the numbers, in terms of the worst cases in Europe compared to the USA/North East, we’re not doing too bad. We’re doing OK for being among the worst it seems. 
 

Sure, other countries have handled it better. When i finally get some sleep and if i have time at work later maybe i’ll pull numbers for Australia/Asia and see how that goes. 
 

edit: i’ll also pull number from various other European countries. 

Edited by abrasivesaint
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I still feel the numbers are wildly inaccurate. NY announced the other day that they were now counting sudden deaths that suspect are due to COVID19, though never tested. That caused a 3700 death toll in a single day as a result. Likewise, theres regular stories of people and even groups of people that they're stumbling on that are dead and were never re[ported as sick or went anywhere for treatment.

 

All in all, its still difficult to understand the response considering the death toll. The numbers have obviously steadily gone up, but we're still seeing relatively small numbers when compared against the response and the subsequent damage the response is causing and will cause.

 

Anyhow, theres a lot of misinformation and many people don't differentiate their statements of fact with that of speculation. Who the fuck knows, but it is a giant freakin mess.

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7 hours ago, abrasivesaint said:

I just dont think it’s that simple. This isn’t an American problem, it is worldwide, as we obviously all know. It would need to be a globally concerted effort and that just does not seem like it is ever going to happen.
 

We can hide inside for months, but smuggling and trafficking didn’t just all the sudden stop because this virus popped up. How can we guarantee no one will carry it across a border? How long is this vaccine truly going to take? How long are we not going to allow anything or anyone outside of America to enter? What if this thing mutates? There’s so many unknowns and so many questions. 
 

Edit: i was incorrect with information in the paragraph in parenthesis, see further down..  (Viruses may not just “hang around,” but they also don’t just go away. The WHO reports a few thousand cases of the Bubonic Plague every year. That fucker has been around since the 1300s.) 
 

I dont think the quarantine and social distance efforts are the saving grace and final solution some people seem to think it is. I think it’s the lack of a solution. It’s a buying of time, an answer for the time being. It’s not a sustainable solution. It’s a preventative measure to attempt to contain things like more chaos at the hospitals than we’ve already seen. We need a better long term plan and i think that’s why the talk of “slowly” starting things back up is beginning to take place. 

It actually is that simple...no host, no virus replication, no virus... here's an analogy... no women... no babies... no people. 

 

Globally concerted effort... you'd be surprised with collaboration efforts globally to find a vaccine. 

 

Yes, trafficking and smuggling is a threat albeit small...i loathe trump but shutting down incoming flights was the right thing to do... the vaccine could take a while..it is what it is... how long do we stop entry?...as long as it takes... mutate?... the genetic material mutates, not the structure... you prevent the virus from binding to the receptors, it doesn't matter if the genetic material mutates... you probably didn't even watch the YouTube video i posted... neither did the people that liked your comment i bet smfh.

 

Quarantine and social distance are not the saving grace but they're a fucking damn good start... people that refuse to do that shit are fucking idiots and are exposing themselves to being host carriers... normally I'd say fuck it... you go out and get it and die?... good riddance... the only problem now is those people put people like my parents at risk.... so still fuck them... but stay the fuck at home. 

 

We do need a long term plan... that starts with TESTING.. but wtf... why are we not doing this...oh yeah, our government dropped the ball. 

 

Look... bottom line is people need to stop spreading this until a vaccine is found... until then, stay away from others.. stay inside...fucking A!

 

My original point is the virus is going to infect ANYBODY that is exposed to it... black, white, yellow, brown, old, young, Republican, Democrat, Christian, Jewish, Muslim, whatever. 

 

DON'T BE AN IDIOT, STAY THE FUCK HOME!!

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16 hours ago, NightmareOnElmStreet said:

Did any of y’all apply for that government loan for small business or the self employed that you essentially don’t need to pay back...?

I initially heard of this shit on “the survival podcast” raven plugged not long ago. The link is no longer valid or i would shared, but it was on a first come first serve basis and I think it’s maxed out now. Definitely applied. Highly doubt it will work out for me but holy hell it would be nice. The payback period isn’t really a period at all and will probably be forgiven? I listened to the same podcast again and heard another dude talking about but its so hazy. 

I did.  After about two weeks I received an email from SBA.  Cannot remember what it said exactly. I still have it if you wanna read it.  

 

There's a little more to the story than what has been told and more info you'll need to submit.  Its not just free money so to speak.

 

I am actually really pissed off about it not for myself but in general because the banking system has been giving the job to fulfill.   

 

But there's good reason for it. 

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4 hours ago, CALIgula said:

you probably didn't even watch the YouTube video i posted... neither did the people that liked your comment i bet smfh.

I did watch it. 
 

4 hours ago, CALIgula said:

Globally concerted effort... you'd be surprised with collaboration efforts globally to find a vaccine

Globally concerted effort to stay inside, not find a vaccine. If we all shutter inside for the rest of our lives but the rest of the world doesn’t, we’re still going to have a problem. 


 

4 hours ago, CALIgula said:

We do need a long term plan... that starts with TESTING.. but wtf... why are we not doing this...oh yeah, our government dropped the ball.

 

And where are you seeing this?
 

I posted some numbers for European countries for the amount of their population they’ve tested vs the population as a whole, we’re doing pretty good to date. 
 

South Korea has been held as the example for testing measures. They’ve currently tested 1% of their population. The US has tested .99% (so safe to round that up to 1%) and the North Eastern states have tested 1.9% of their combined population. NY state has tested 2.7% of their population. So where are we dropping the ball on testing? It was a slow start, absolutely, but we’re doing pretty well at this point. 

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17 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said:

I did watch it. 
 

Globally concerted effort to stay inside, not find a vaccine. If we all shutter inside for the rest of our lives but the rest of the world doesn’t, we’re still going to have a problem. 


 

 

And where are you seeing this?
 

I posted some numbers for European countries for the amount of their population they’ve tested vs the population as a whole, we’re doing pretty good to date. 
 

South Korea has been held as the example for testing measures. They’ve currently tested 1% of their population. The US has tested .99% (so safe to round that up to 1%) and the North Eastern states have tested 1.9% of their combined population. NY state has tested 2.7% of their population. So where are we dropping the ball on testing? It was a slow start, absolutely, but we’re doing pretty well at this point. 

Globally to stay inside probably won't happen...but we can control our own citizens if all states AND the federal government put a stay at home order in place until were past this. 

 

And as to where im seeing this?

Please.. just Google "coronavirus testing shortage" and then click on the news tab....i just did and more than 10 results on the first page alone. 

 

Government dropped the ball with resources ... lack of reagents, lack of swabs... just like they dropped the ball on ppe. (Edit: one word....procurement)

 

That nigga trump even said the national stockpile is for the federal government... not the states...wtf ...seriously?! 

 

 

Look if you wanna go out, that's on you... if you want people to go out, that's on you... and if we "open the country" on May 1st and cases increase, i won't even say "i told you so"

 

But as far as my opinion.... opening the country on may 1st is too premature....we keep this up and we'll surpass 50,000 deaths. 

 

Especially since we're seeing over 2000 a day. 

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59 minutes ago, CALIgula said:

And as to where im seeing this?

Please.. just Google "coronavirus testing shortage" and then click on the news tab....i just did and more than 10 results on the first page alone. 

 

Government dropped the ball with resources ... lack of reagents, lack of swabs...

Ok, we’re not going to agree upon this i think that’s clear at this point. I have googled this, every day. Numbers showing we’re currently on par with many major countries vs news sources talking about wide scale testing seems like apples and oranges though. 
 

edit: also, see back to where @misteravenpointed out that if we tested 100,000 a day, it will take 9 years. This would also require a BOLD assumption that those tested won’t ever catch the virus after they were tested. 

 

Quote

just like they dropped the ball on ppe. (Edit: one word....procurement)

 

That nigga trump even said the national stockpile is for the federal government... not the states...wtf ...seriously?! 

Now here’s where i can give you some first hand information. PPE shortages are nothing new to hospitals. My departments daily duties require numerous amounts of PPE. We’re always running out of masks, gowns, gloves, face shields, shoe coverings.. all the time. We have to borrow from other departments, other hospitals.. it’s fairly common.
 

This isn’t the federal governments fault, it’s  due to backorders and mismanagement. People who order this stuff also have plenty of other duties in the hospitals. It’s not like some nerd just sits around staring at PPE all day. It’s generally management who orders for their departments. Sometimes they drop the ball, sometimes shit is on backorder and it’s out of their hands.
 

I’ve had coworkers tell me they’ve worked at hospitals that told them they need to make due because they don’t order until May, it was February. That’s not a backorder issue, a government issue.. that’s poor fucking management. That said, it’s also sometimes linked to funding not just simple human error. 

 

Quote

 

Look if you wanna go out, that's on you... if you want people to go out, that's on you... and if we "open the country" on May 1st and cases increase, i won't even say "i told you so"

 

But as far as my opinion.... opening the country on may 1st is too premature....we keep this up and we'll surpass 50,000 deaths. 

 

 

We’re going to see increases and surpass 50k no matter what. I think that’s fairly obvious. That’s a pretty low bar to set in my opinion. 
 

People here in New Orleans, at least in my neighborhood, have largely been adhering to quarantining and social distancing, obviously some are not. I live in the parish with the largest numbers of cases and deaths, and work at a hospital in the 2nd largest parish in terms of cases and deaths. I’m going to have to plead a bit of ignorance here but i’d bet the numbers would say there’s almost no way i haven’t been directly exposed at this point. Especially where i’ve handled infected surgical equipment at least twice that i can confirm.. not wearing a N95 mask mind you.

 

Quote

Especially since we're seeing over 2000 a day. 

How many of these numbers are coming from the north east, or specifically NY?

Edited by abrasivesaint
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Agree to disagree. 

 

Yes testing might take a while, but that's why you should work on expediting home testing... using saliva.

 

I worked in the ER for about 2 years... never saw shortages... but even then National stockpile should compensate for these shortages.. it didn't. 

 

NY is an outlier but the rates of infection are growing everywhere in the U.S.... if people aren't staying at home, there spread will increase. 

 

I don't understand why you disagree with everything im saying. 

 

US is number 1!!

Especially because we have more cases than the next top 4 countries... combined. 

 

Look, i hope im wrong and we get past this... if im wrong I'll even come out to nawlins and buy you some beignets. 

 

 

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@abrasivesaint- daily localised shortages of PPE are different to retaining stockpiles to be rapidly dispersed to impacted regions during an emergency - especially in an era when we know some organisations have been experimenting with bio-agents as a method of terror attack. Same goes for responses to natural disasters, industrial disasters, etc.

 

The national stockpile is there to be able to surge when needed, like an insurance policy. It's the same as recovery equipment for earthquakes, aerial water-bombers for fires, etc. This stuff doesn't exist for and is likely in short supply for standard car wrecks and house fires, but they don't threaten the national interest or national security like large-scale events. That's what the national stockpile is for and why it's supposed to be managed at a national level. The Aust. govt was caught sleeping on this as well, family members are part of the effort to source PPE internationally. 

Edited by Hua Guofang
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2 hours ago, abrasivesaint said:

Globally concerted effort to stay inside, not find a vaccine. If we all shutter inside for the rest of our lives but the rest of the world doesn’t, we’re still going to have a problem. 

 

There was an epidemiologist on Rogan a few weeks back talking about this.  He talked about how docs and researchers all over the globe are sharing their findings on this collective posting space, not all of it can be peer reviewed in such a short time but there's definitely collaboration and nobody is hoarding info.  I can't remember the page but it's all publicly shared and anybody can read it.  Dr's name is Peter Hotez.

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9 minutes ago, Schnitzel said:

were there seriously 6,000 covid related deaths in the USA yesterday?

 

 this cannot be right.

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-04-17 at 1.04.00 pm.png

A bunch of countries shifted the way they record CV19 related deaths, which meant that a bunch of deaths had to be added to the tally.

 

For example, the UK, apparently hasn't been counting deaths in nursing homes, China wasn't counting asymptomatic infections as..., well, infections!

 

As @misteravenhas been saying, looking at the infection count is a little misleading as it's relative to so many variables such as testing rate, what is recorded as a positive result, etc. etc. Death counts are a little more informative but even then, it's not at all straight forward.

 

I think the smart money just assumes there is more of everything than we are aware of and there's a lot to this particular virus than we yet know and new information may adjust the truth to be that it was less harmful than first thought or that it might have longer-lasting health impacts for the recovered than we were expecting. It's still a bit of a black box.

 

.

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3 hours ago, CALIgula said:

I worked in the ER for about 2 years... never saw shortages...
 

I thought about it afterwards and realized the nature of my specific career path the last few years is helping hospitals that are specifically in trouble. So my experience with shortages may be leading to a semi-bias opinion. But every hospital i’ve worked at in the past decade has had a shortage at one point or another. 

 

Quote

but even then National stockpile should compensate for these shortages.. it didn't. 

 

2 hours ago, Hua Guofang said:

@abrasivesaint- daily localised shortages of PPE are different to retaining stockpiles to be rapidly dispersed to impacted regions during an emergency - especially in an era when we know some organisations have been experimenting with bio-agents as a method of terror attack. Same goes for responses to natural disasters, industrial disasters, etc.

 

The national stockpile is there to be able to surge when needed, like an insurance policy. It's the same as recovery equipment for earthquakes, aerial water-bombers for fires, etc. This stuff doesn't exist for and is likely in short supply for standard car wrecks and house fires, but they don't threaten the national interest or national security like large-scale events. That's what the national stockpile is for and why it's supposed to be managed at a national level. The Aust. govt was caught sleeping on this as well, family members are part of the effort to source PPE internationally. 

I agree with all of this, maybe my point got lost in the weeds somewhere. I think the problem is the blame is being specifically put on the current President, when i don’t think anyone can say for certain that administration of any President before us was at the ready either. I think it’s clearly politically driven nonsense that isn’t helping the situation.

 

Before anyone gets anything in their head. I’m not a supporter of Trump, i didn’t vote for Trump, i don’t fucking like him, he can suck my ass. But I think the motives are fairly obvious. I don’t think Trump pointing fingers is any more helpful than the media pointing them at him, a lot of balls were dropped across the globe here.
 

 

Quote

 

I don't understand why you disagree with everything im saying. 

 

US is number 1!!

Especially because we have more cases than the next top 4 countries... combined. 

I’m disagreeing because i don’t think hiding for months on end is the answer. I also don’t think everyone going streaking like Frank Ricard come whatever date Trump is blabbering about now is the answer either. It’s somewhere in the middle, hence the talk of a “slow” opening. 


I think an important factor is the 4 countries below us have a smaller population in a smaller area, which is why i segregated the North East of the US where things are the worst and where it seemed comparable in population and size just roughly looking at a map. In those terms we’re doing good if not better in terms of population testing. Some regions simply dont require the same amount of large scale testing that is currently required in the North East. That’s why i put together the numbers i did on the previous page. 

 

Edited by abrasivesaint
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12 hours ago, abrasivesaint said:

So i saw this graph last night. This website seems to be pretty accurate and on top of numbers coming in.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

So I took from the top 11 non-US countries, excluded China, Turkey and Iran because i wanted to focus on Europe. I combined New York with the bordering states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, as these 5 states in the north east part of the country make up 60.9% of the cases in the US, and are in the top 12 cases for the US. These states lumped together are also roughly comparable in land size to France, Spain, Germany or the UK. I also added numbers for the USA as a whole. 
 

So.. Here are some rounded numbers of rates. 

 

% of Tested vs Population: 

Germany - 2% 

Spain/North East States - 1.9%
Italy - 1.8% 

Belgium - 1.1%
USA - .99% 

Netherlands - .85%
UK - .62% 

France - .49%

 

% of Tested that were Positive: 

Germany - 7.8%
Italy - 14.7%
Spain - 19.6% 

USA/Netherlands - 19.7% 

UK - 24.6% 

Belgium - 25.9% 

North East States - 36%

France - 44.2%  

 

% of Total Deaths of Total Positive Cases: 

Germany - 2.8%

USA - 4.4%
North East States - 4.8%
Spain - 10.5%
Netherlands - 11.3%
France - 11.6%
Italy - 13.1% 

UK - 13.3% 

Belgium - 13.9% 

Just bringing it over for easier viewing to my point above. 
 

In other parts of the US, and even in the North East, things are slowing, thanks to the quarantine and social distance efforts. I think more consideration and concentration may be beneficial to be focused on the areas hardest hit than the country as a whole. This doesn’t mean the rest of the country is free to do as they please, but it’s something to be considered. 
 

We’re on par or slightly better with testing our population in terms of percentages, we’re higher in terms of positive cases, but our mortality rate is much lower than those at the top of the list with us. 
 

Again, take into consideration the accuracy of the numbers as @misteravenand @Hua Guofanghave mentioned. But these are the numbers we have for the time being. 

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To piggy back off the accuracy of numbers comments. I’ve read and heard on a podcast just now that a recent study by a collaborative effort by a few universities is suggesting that far more people have already been exposed to the virus than thought, and the previous mortality projections of 2-3% seem to be inaccurate and the numbers may be aligning more with what South Korea is seeing, and while be around .6 - .7%

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41 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said:

I thought about it afterwards and realized the nature of my specific career path the last few years is helping hospitals that are specifically in trouble. So my experience with shortages may be leading to a semi-bias opinion. But every hospital i’ve worked at in the past decade has had a shortage at one point or another. 

 

 

I agree with all of this, maybe my point got lost in the weeds somewhere. I think the problem is the blame is being specifically put on the current President, when i don’t think anyone can say for certain that administration of any President before us was at the ready either. I think it’s clearly politically driven nonsense that isn’t helping the situation.

 

Before anyone gets anything in their head. I’m not a supporter of Trump, i didn’t vote for Trump, i don’t fucking like him, he can suck my ass. But I think the motives are fairly obvious. I don’t think Trump pointing fingers is any more helpful than the media pointing them at him, a lot of balls were dropped across the globe here.
 

 

I’m disagreeing because i don’t think hiding for months on end is the answer. I also don’t think everyone going streaking like Frank Ricard come whatever date Trump is blabbering about now is the answer either. It’s somewhere in the middle, hence the talk of a “slow” opening. 


I think an important factor is the 4 countries below us have a smaller population in a smaller area, which is why i segregated the North East of the US where things are the worst and where it seemed comparable in population and size just roughly looking at a map. In those terms we’re doing good if not better in terms of population testing. Some regions simply dont require the same amount of large scale testing that is currently required in the North East. That’s why i put together the numbers i did on the previous page. 

 

Well played....

 

You: There have always been shortages

Me: I didn't see any shortages (in regular times)

.

.

.

Me: National stockpile should compensate for (current) shortages. 

 

But good try... trying to use a person's own words against them usually works in winning arguments... not in this case. 

 

 

 

 

Let me break it down even further so y'all can understand it... really simple.....

 

Testing = good

Distancing = good 

Vaccine research = good

PPE = good

Supporting economy = good

 

All of these together = great

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opening the country on May 1st = bad

 

Slow opening before we fully get a grasp on things = not as bad... but still bad. 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, abrasivesaint said:

I agree with all of this, maybe my point got lost in the weeds somewhere. I think the problem is the blame is being specifically put on the current President, when i don’t think anyone can say for certain that administration of any President before us was at the ready either. I think it’s clearly politically driven nonsense that isn’t helping the situation.

In terms of the national stockpile of PPE and other response resources, I have no idea whether the current admin failed or succeeded at preparing properly.

 

However, when it comes to pandemic response, he absolutely is less prepared than other presidents because he disbanded the pandemic response units in the National Security Council, he defunded large amounts of the CDC and he ignored the briefings from the outgoing administration that pandemic was likely the greatest risk the incoming admin would face. Then, of course, he tried to ignore the outbreak calling it a democratic hoax and telling the nation that it would magically disappear.

 

Agreed that trying to smash him in the midst of a national crisis isn't a great approach. However, the king has been shown to be naked, he's faced a real emergency and utterly failed (as he did in stopping DPRK nuke development and a bunch of other stuff he claims wins on), that can't be lost in the lead up to the election. Americans really ought to be aware that the person in charge of running shit isn't a capable leader and is responsible for a pretty large number of Americans dying.

 

All the above stuff about defunding is documented and can be supplied if you want to read about it.

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49 minutes ago, CALIgula said:

Well played....

 

You: There have always been shortages

Me: I didn't see any shortages (in regular times)

.

.

.

Me: National stockpile should compensate for (current) shortages. 

 

But good try... trying to use a person's own words against them usually works in winning arguments... not in this case.

Dude. What? I think you’re starting to let your emotions get the best of you man, because i have very little idea what you’re trying to say here.
 

I openly admitted that upon further thought my opinion of shortages may have been semi-biased due to the nature of my job, which is helping hospitals in need. I dont work at hospitals that are doing just dandy, i get contracted to shit shows. I agreed with you to some degree. 
 

49 minutes ago, CALIgula said:

 

Let me break it down even further so y'all can understand it... really simple.....

 

Testing = good

Distancing = good 

Vaccine research = good

PPE = good

Supporting economy = good

 

All of these together = great 

Who is arguing against this right now? Distancing and everyone not leaving their homes until this thing goes away are different circumstances. 
 

49 minutes ago, CALIgula said:

Opening the country on May 1st = bad

 

Slow opening before we fully get a grasp on things = not as bad... but still bad.

 

As far as i’m aware, the states have every right to open, or not open, as they see fit. I also heard states and their neighboring states are working together in these talks because they understand what they do effects their neighbors. 
 

Trump says a lot of stupid fucking things that simply aren’t accurate. He can make claims he’s going to do this or that but when it comes down to it he’s full of shit. 

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