abrasivesaint Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Kults said: That surprises me. Always just assumed NH was a Dem stronghold Depends. (Edit: i may have misspoke a little bit on the closeness. Looking at their history, it appears there have been close races, but there’s also been some landslides, usually resulting in voting to leave an incumbent in place, or flipping the party altogether.) It’s interesting to see where these candidates have their backing on that map. On the southern border Sanders has Keene (a college town) on the left, and the Portsmouth/Dover area (pretty liberal) on the right, so that’s no surprise. The 2 big yellow patches are the areas of the largest cities in New Hampshire (Manchester and Nashua.) It’s all that scattered support that surprised me the most. However, Trump and Sanders do campaign on some similar promises. I would assume a fair chunk of votes for Trump in NH in 2016 were more along the lines of “fuck Hillary,” votes than they were strong Trump votes, as they are more of a “fuck the system” type state. These votes would more than likely go back to Sanders as he won the primary in NH against Clinton by a big gap, (It was like 60-30%) If they crush Bernie’s campaign again as they did in 2016, Trump has a shot in NH. If Sanders is the candidate, Trump is probably fucked. Edited February 12, 2020 by abrasivesaint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 hour ago, abrasivesaint said: If they crush Bernie’s campaign again as they did in 2016, Trump has a shot in NH. If Sanders is the candidate, Trump is probably fucked. In NH I suspect you might be right. Nation wide though? I cant see a commie winning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hua Guofang Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, Kults said: In NH I suspect you might be right. Nation wide though? I cant see a commie winning. Neither can I. I can't see the non-Trump voters coalescing behind Sanders, He's too dvisive inside the Dems and a pretty easy target for the scare-mongers (OMG, He's trying to turn the US into the Soviet Chinese Korea). I also don't think the moderate left are as motivated as the Trump-right as there is disillusionment about politics, which is largely what brought Trump to power in the first place, and for the non-Trumpians, this leadership has only deepened that disillusionment and I think that will turn them away rather than mobilise them. That's all from the gut, I really don't follow domestic US politics enough to be credible - I only pay attention as to when it directly overlaps with foreign and security policy 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Sounds about right to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercer Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kults said: I cant see a commie winning. I'd say Democrats are even more fed up with their party's establishment now, than the Republicans were when Trump ran last time and pulled the upset. I wouldn't sleep on Bernie. Here's a guy that isn't full of shit for once, after decades of people saying whatever they think will get them elected. He's been about the same shit forever, before it was cool, and never pandered for votes by voting for a fucked up war, or banning gays from getting married, or all the other shit these guys he's up against have. Virtually untouchable in a way that matters. I don't think he'll beat Trump, but if he did win the primary he'd get way more Democrat votes in the General election then Hillary did, or what Warren, Bloomberg, or Biden ever would this time, that's for sure. The only reason Trump even stands a chance against him is two reasons, he's just as energizing to the Republic base as Bernie is to the Democrat base, and he's definitely no sleeping on him like almost every other boomer in the Republican Party would. They'd all just call him a commie, which he is (sort of), economically illiterate and willing to destroy the incentive to be productive, poison to a naturally healthy economy. That doesn't change the fact that most people don't study, understand, or give two fucks about economics. Bernie has something better than that, a type of charisma staying true all these years, while all the other candidates have fucked up, grope on stage regularly, stop and frisk black kids until the supreme court made them stop, etc. etc. Trump recognizes Bernies charisma, and wisely approaches Bernie from a place of respect if you've noticed, instead of dismissal. He's not going out like all the Republicans that laughed when Trump ran. Bottom line, calling Bernie a commie won't get Trump the swing votes he needs to win. His swing votes are coming from the midwest "Blue Collar" states that normally vote Democrat. He's just going to try to win them over with just enough of his own core stoking charisma, and swing vote earning bullshit in his speeches. If you saw the state of the Union, he's working hard for those swing votes. He's not talking about golf, he's talking about black unemployment, wages going up. Not that I like either one of these guys (honestly fuck both of them) but thinking it's going to be easy, and dismissing your opponent was where Hillary fucked up both times she lost. Trump is stupid, but he's not that stupid, which say's a lot about how dumb these motherfuckers that can't beat him, or Bernie are. That's why I'm steady on my fuck the government shit. Edited February 13, 2020 by Mercer 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercer Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 Oh, and what I came in here for. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercer Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercer Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Damn, I can't argue that @Mercer Made some strong points. I didn't see it that way but may need to reconsider that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mercer said: wtf lolll 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 I could see a Tarantino hybrid of Django/Tropic Thunder happening 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Mercer said: Oh, and what I came in here for. Rat bastard. I'm gonna need some time after this betrayal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercer Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Kults said: I could see a Tarantino hybrid of Django/Tropic Thunder happening Tarentino knows he's too white to appropriate that story, only a Black director could pull that off, and surprisingly he's a Canadian, and knows how to pull off the disguise scene on the ship. Edited February 13, 2020 by Mercer 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Im fuckin ded 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mercer said: I'd say Democrats are even more fed up with their party's establishment now, than the Republicans were when Trump ran last time and pulled the upset. I wouldn't sleep on Bernie. Here's a guy that isn't full of shit for once, after decades of people saying whatever they think will get them elected. He's been about the same shit forever, before it was cool, and never pandered for votes by voting for a fucked up war, or banning gays from getting married, or all the other shit these guys he's up against have. Virtually untouchable in a way that matters. I don't think he'll beat Trump, but if he did win the primary he'd get way more Democrat votes in the General election then Hillary did, or what Warren, Bloomberg, or Biden ever would this time, that's for sure. The only reason Trump even stands a chance against him is two reasons, he's just as energizing to the Republic base as Bernie is to the Democrat base, and he's definitely no sleeping on him like almost every other boomer in the Republican Party would. They'd all just call him a commie, which he is (sort of), economically illiterate and willing to destroy the incentive to be productive, poison to a naturally healthy economy. That doesn't change the fact that most people don't study, understand, or give two fucks about economics. Bernie has something better than that, a type of charisma staying true all these years, while all the other candidates have fucked up, grope on stage regularly, stop and frisk black kids until the supreme court made them stop, etc. etc. Trump recognizes Bernies charisma, and wisely approaches Bernie from a place of respect if you've noticed, instead of dismissal. He's not going out like all the Republicans that laughed when Trump ran. Bottom line, calling Bernie a commie won't get Trump the swing votes he needs to win. His swing votes are coming from the midwest "Blue Collar" states that normally vote Democrat. He's just going to try to win them over with just enough of his own core stoking charisma, and swing vote earning bullshit in his speeches. If you saw the state of the Union, he's working hard for those swing votes. He's not talking about golf, he's talking about black unemployment, wages going up. Not that I like either one of these guys (honestly fuck both of them) but thinking it's going to be easy, and dismissing your opponent was where Hillary fucked up both times she lost. Trump is stupid, but he's not that stupid, which say's a lot about how dumb these motherfuckers that can't beat him, or Bernie are. That's why I'm steady on my fuck the government shit. I was going to say earlier that i think Bernie is the left’s Trump-style answer to their own establishment. They’ve had it with bullshitters like Biden, Clinton, Warren.. transparent, pandering twats. I think it’ll truly matter who Bernie would run with. If he goes hard with someone far leftish, he’s fucked. If he’s smart, he’ll run with a moderate, like Tulsi. I don’t think Bernie is truly that stupid, or will go that “commie.” I think he pitches that shit to reel the far left in. And if he’s calculated, will lighten up and reel the moderates in by running with a moderate VP. He doesn’t need the far left, he needs the swing votes like Mercer said. The far left and social justice types can bitch and moan all they want about shit like Sanders embracing Joe Rogan “endorsing” him on his podcast, but you know damn well they aren’t voting for Trump because of it. Rogan’s reach alone probably swung a fair chunk of people because those once critical listened to Sanders speak and thought “hmm, he really doesn't sound that crazy..” I still think a Sanders/Gabbard run could smack up the Trump/Pence campaign pretty good. Edited February 13, 2020 by abrasivesaint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercer Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 That's the thing though, Bernies too good, and doesn't pander for votes. Trump does, and that's why Bernie is going to lose. I think his supporters would feel stabbed in the balls if he went with an Establishment running mate. She's too off message, and Vice presidents need to say what their told to say anyway. It would be way smarter to go with an AOC VP, Gabbard would have a problem with everything he Bernie said, compared to AOC. It would be worse than McCain/Palen which was a major oof on his part lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 (edited) See i dont know if i agree with that. Put the far left against the ropes. They’re not voting Trump, ever. So they’ll swallow their pride and do what Bernie tells them to do. edit: They both need those people that voted Trump because fuck Hillary. People that weren’t sold on Trump, but definitely weren’t fucking with Hillary. The right had/has their fuck the system with Trump, the left has their fuck the system with Bernie. Edited February 13, 2020 by abrasivesaint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kults Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Y'all are assuming the DNC will even let him get the nomination, I suspect things are going to implode this time and there's a day of reckoning for the party on the horizon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abrasivesaint Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 (edited) Entirely possible @Kults Also, AOC cannot be VP as she is not 35, just reminded of that. I knew the President had to be but forgot the VP had to be. Joe Rogan apparently talked about this today on his podcast. PPS: this should all probably get moved to the Election thread, haha. Edited February 13, 2020 by abrasivesaint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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