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Hua Guofang

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Fucking lol @ Castles and Crooks. I think you've cracked it, Inj!!

 

 

 

Not that I think that your conclusions are wrong, but maybe the plane just is sitting at the bottom of the ocean.

 

Since no group has come forward yet and there was no known people on the plane, I am thinking it is that.

 

If a group had the power and connections to make that plane disappear, they would have come forward already for whatever reason they have. There would be too much risk of the plane being found and them being caught and their plot unraveling. Too many people are looking for this plane, for it not to be found on land.

 

I could be wrong, but without a reason to be given from any group, or a use of the plane yet, there is all this effort with no payoff for it.

 

Bottom of the ocean.

 

I Think this is a bit of a stretch. It's very difficult to imagine that an aircraft like that can ditch in the ocean and not break up. I say that because if it was going to ditch due to mech failure then you'd expect that to have happened south of Vietnam and that means the plane would have been coming down from 38,000 feet. The speed of impact would be massive and the aircraft would shatter in to many pieces. There would have been debris everywhere.

 

It is all but accpeted that the plane made a turn after the initial coms drop. This was not some wild turn of an aircraft out of control but a text book turn that an inexperienced pilot is unlikely to have pulled off. It is also likely to have flown deliberately through waypoints again indicating an experienced pilot on a pre-planned flight path. Now, the plane may have been ditched in the sea similar to the way the aircraft was ditched in the Hudson a few years back, when everyone survived the emergency landing. However, that would have given the passengers a lot of time to exit the craft with floatation devices and you would have other floating stuff like luggage, clothing, etc. make its way out of the craft as well. Likely something would have been noted by now if this was the case, depending on where it went down.

 

If the plane was emergency landed in the middle of the Indian Ocean, where it may not have been sptted yet, then one must ask how it made it there. It's hard to say that everything leading up to the point of impact was coincidence, given the timing of the coms drop, the way the aircraft turned after that, etc. And if it was emergecny landed that indicates the pilot was in full control and you must ask why the hell he took the plane there. If it ditched out of control we would expect to see a pretty significant debris field show up at some point soon.

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And there it is -

 

Honestly, when the way the aircraft was redirrected came out a few days back and then two days ago that it had flown for another 4-5 hours it was becoming pretty clear that there was planning behind this. Then when you add the way the coms were dropped (timing, location, etc.) AND that waypoints were navigated it's irresponsible to treat this as anything else other than a hijack.

 

 

Missing Malaysia Airlines plane: investigators say jet was hijacked

 

Date

March 15, 2014 - 3:50PM

 

 

 

A Royal Malaysian Air Force Navigator captain Izam Fareq Hassan ® talks with his team members onboard a Malaysian Air Force CN235 aircraft during a search and rescue (SAR) operation to find the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 plane over the Strait of Malacca on March 14, 2014. Malaysia confirmed on March 14 that the search for a missing Malaysia Airlines plane had been expanded into the Indian Ocean, but declined to comment on US reports that the jet had flown for hours after going missing. AFP PHOTO / MOHD RASFAN Click to play video

MH370 search goes west

 

US officials helping with the search for Flight MH370 shift focus to the Indian Ocean region but Malaysia Airlines says likelihood of finding missing plane there is very low.

 

 

 

A Malaysian government official says investigators have concluded the missing Malaysia Airlines plane was hijacked, according to press agency Associated Press.

 

Sky News reports the official said no motive had been established and it was not yet clear where the plane was taken, but he said hijacking was "conclusive".

 

The official said someone with significant flying experience hijacked the jet, turned off communications and steered it off-course, according to Sky News.

Advertisement

 

Canadian media outlet Global News reported the official was involved in the investigation into the crash, but spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to brief the press.

 

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak is expected to hold a press conference at 4.30pm AEDT.

 

MORE TO COME

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The focus now will be "what next".

 

No responsibility has been claimed or demands been made for the lives of the people on board. That indicates that acquisition of the aircraft was just the first phase of the operation. The assumption has to be made that the aircraft will be used in an attack or as a method of infiltration for an attack. The game is to pre-empt the next move and get in front of the hijackers' decision making loop. However to do that their play needs to be identified. On that, I have NFI. The only thing I can think of at the moment is the pilots will be the main suspects as the coms were dropped immediately after they said "goodnight" for the handover to Vietnam. They may have already been under duress at that point but it seems unlikely given their known demeaner and the behaviour of the aircraft itself. Secondly, deeper investigation of the passengers, flight training, links to organisations and state intelligence and military groups will also be looked for. Third is the direction of the aircraft and range given the likely amount of fuel left and all possible airfields that could take that kind of aircraft. Fourth, they may look at the possiblity of a controlled ditch at sea and for this they will look for evidence of suspicious movements of boats in the region.

 

Huge amount of ifs and from open source there's not a huge amount that can narrow things down. However security in national capitals and key military facilities will have to be heightened on the assumption that there is an aircraft with anything up to a stolen nuclear weapon aboard preparing to strike a target. The high level of competency and planning in this hijack indicates that the perpetrators may well have had state - or elements of a state - backing them.

 

Or it was aliens.

 

Given that no responsibility has been taken or demands made I think it's safe to assume that

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And there we go, Flight MH370 is back on the front page again.

 

The Malaysian PM just held a press conference where he said that it has now been fully corroborated that the coms devices were deliberately switched off, the plane did divert its course over the Malaysian peninsula, has continued on flying for up to 5 hours since the coms were dropped and it was flying along known flight corridors in a way that indicates a person with knowledge of aircraft piloting and navigation was in control.

 

With that now confirmed (as much as things can be firm) it's very difficult to imagine a scenario where the pilots were not complicit. Either that or they were under duress of person(s) who had a very strong understanding of commercial and military aircraft and capabilities and also had a very well prepared and organised plan in place.

 

 

Somalia has to be pretty high on the list here. I would imagine that there are vast areas of East Africa that are not under radar coverage. I reckon the airspace and lower atmosphere over Somalia would be a very, very busy place right now.

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You make a lot of assumptions. You sound like Fox News.

 

That press conference did not offer any new info. They just confirmed what was already stated. I did just read that Najib did not confirm it was a hijacking, and he said investigators have not made a final determination. Just checked different websites, they all quoted him saying the same thing.

 

My doubts are still there for the reasons stated. There still is no plot, no plane, no nothing.

 

The lack of wreckage doesn't mean anything. If it was in the ocean, they might not have come across it yet, or it might have sunk. There was nowhere with a landing strip for it to land on the land, or they would have found it already. They only had 5 hours and 50 minutes of fuel plus reserves I read. Also, I am sure that if it flew into India's airspace, they would have seen it.

 

The thing I find annoying about conspiracy people, is that they will believe everything remotely possible, especially involving fear (terrorism) before looking at the simplest and easily explained.

 

Like I said, I could be wrong, because I am just some guy on the internet, but there still is no plane, no one saying anything, no plot, no nothing.

 

With something like a plane, they would have shown up on a sat pic somewhere if it landed at a landing strip. You can't just land something like that in a open field.

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Ha, did you just peg me as a "conspiracy people"?

 

They did more than confirm what was already known. They are now saying that the communications were deliberately switched off. That was not already known. And that in and of itself would strongly suggest that there was no mechanical but a planned action. They are completely ceasing the search in the SCS, that was not previously known. They fully accept that the flight had diverted to west of Malaysia, that was under discussion but not confirmed. That has now been confirmed, another aspect not previously known. etc. etc.

 

Things now known -

 

- coms deliberately dropped

- flight path altered deliberately

- aircraft flies low over the Malay peninsula

- aircraft flies through waypoints on established air corridors

- aircraft flies for up to 5 hours

 

At this point the equation flips and the easiest and most simple explanation is no longer that the plane crashed in to the ocean. So much here points towards deliberate actions by an experienced pilot.

 

I'll easily bet 1000 internet cool guy points that the flight was highjacked.

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It all is still a guess, because they still haven't found or talked to anything.

 

Your points from them are slightly wrong, for example the plane not only went low, but really high too. Above the maximum height for that plane actually.

 

Also the only way they tracked it was because of the maintenance ping that they did not pay for that service. There are not 100% sure that it was that plane either. They are only making educated guesses.

 

Aldo I read those things before the PM talked yesterday, so they were not new to me at least.

 

You could be right, but I still think the easiest explanation is that it crashed and they haven't found the wreckage.

 

Ultimately, there still is no plane, no plot, and no people. Anything other than that is just a guess.

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I'll easily bet 1000 internet cool guy points that the flight was highjacked.

 

I wouldn't take that bet because you might be right. Just right now, you aren't. No one is.

 

Also as for prop points, I am pretty sure your new name does not hit as hard as me, so it is a lose lose bet on my side.

 

But I will prop you anyways.

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It all is still a guess, because they still haven't found or talked to anything.

 

Your points from them are slightly wrong, for example the plane not only went low, but really high too. Above the maximum height for that plane actually.

 

Also the only way they tracked it was because of the maintenance ping that they did not pay for that service. There are not 100% sure that it was that plane either. They are only making educated guesses.

 

Aldo I read those things before the PM talked yesterday, so they were not new to me at least.

 

You could be right, but I still think the easiest explanation is that it crashed and they haven't found the wreckage.

 

Ultimately, there still is no plane, no plot, and no people. Anything other than that is just a guess.

 

It's not a guess at all. You're suggesting that you must have 100% confirmation/proof of something before you can consider one outcome more likely than another. But that's not the way it works. 99% of the time you do not get conclusive evidence either way. You have to work out what the evidence you have suggests is more likely and make working assumptions. A guess is a wild stab and being right is a matter of chance only.

 

What we have that is new today are the conclusions being made below

 

From the statement:

 

Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off.

 

From this point onwards, the Royal Malaysian Air Force primary radar showed that an aircraft which was believed – but not confirmed – to be MH370 did indeed turn back. It then flew in a westerly direction back over peninsular Malaysia before turning northwest. Up until the point at which it left military primary radar coverage, these movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane.

 

Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.

 

According to the new data, the last confirmed communication between the plane and the satellite was at 8:11AM Malaysian time on Saturday 8th March.

 

 

All we had yesterday was jumbled contradictory shit from the Malaysian govt and leaks, rumour and speculation from other sources. Today we have confirmation and "high degree certainty" which is int speak for "impossible to ever confirm but we would bet our wives on it".

 

That's a big shift from yesterday and to think that you've got a competent pilot switching coms off and flying off eslewhere in a deliberate manner I can't understand why you would think that it has "simply crashed somewhere". It may have crashed but if it has it will have been a deliberate action by whoever was flying the aircraft and it will be nowhere near where the plane was supposed to be. That's a hijack in anyone's language.

 

 

I was speaking figuratively about internet cool guy points. I don't give a shit about props.

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I agree with Hua, it does seem more likely to be a hijack than a crash. If it had crashed they would have found debris from the crash, and a crash doesn't match with the disabling of comms and transponder.

 

Not that I would have a clue either way, just seems the more likely scenario.

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All that was said is that the plane changed directions. They just started looking in the direction. There is a whole lot if ocean to look in which could explain no wreckage being found.

 

Since no group has said they did it, hijacking is just a guess.

 

Even if it was a 99% guess, it still is a guess.

 

I think it is a lot lower then 99%, since there has not been one single thing found it said be any one responsible yet.

 

No proof = guess, regardless of how much it makes sense.

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All that was said is that the plane changed directions.

 

No, that's completely incorrect.

 

They are saying that it changed direction deliberately, which is very obviously an important distinction.

They are also saying that coms were dropped deliberately.

They are also saying that it flew for a number of hours after coms were lost.

 

Not sure why you're ignoring those explicit points.

 

 

If you wait for 100% proof on many things you end up coming last. The common analogy given is "two cavemen are walking through long grass when they hear a noise that sounds like a lion stalking them. One caveman runs whilst the other caveman says, well, it sounds like a lion but I can't be completely sure until I see it. Which caveman do you think lived to pass on his genes?". A lot of the time you never actually get total proof. Can you actually prove that the Chinese have satellites in orbit? I know I can't but I also know that I'd be an idiot if I didn't believe they do.

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I think the no group taking responsibility could (and I mean that loosely) indicate to using it for a wider scheme rather than ransom for hostages

 

Absolutely. Just because a hijack has occurred doesn't always mean you will have some one claim it. As Decy says, it all depends on the motivation involved.

 

I doubt very much that some one would carry out such a sophisticated operation to simply ransom some people. The govts won't pay anyway, they only really pay when they can deny they negotiated and paid off crims/terrorists. There's also much easier ways to get hostages, like a bus. These people wanted the aircraft, or the pilot lost the plot like that Ethiopian pilot that recently flew to Switzerland.

 

Actually, would be very interesting to see if there are any similarities there. That may have been a dry or aborted run.

 

The manifest has been out there for days and no one has identified people of particular interest. Wonder if there was something interesting in the cargo.

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Not sure why your ignoring the fact that there has been zero proof of any hijacking.

 

Plane takes off.

Comma are down for an unknown reason.

Plane changes direction.

Plane disappears.

 

That is all that is known. Deliberate it not, they are just guessing, because they really don't know.

 

To draw any conclusions past that and claim it is more than it is, is ignoring the facts.

 

You are acting like this is a hijacking and that is all it could be.

 

Fox News/Alex Jones type of guesses.

 

Keep in mind that this same country saying "deliberate", is also the same country who lost their plane and doesn't check passports. Hardly reliable.

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You are acting like this is a hijacking and that is all it could be.

 

Nope, I'm acting like it's a hijacking because that's what the information suggests.

 

The reason they say it's deliberate is because the aircraft conducted a complex yet text book turn. For the aircraft to have been out of control and act in that way is such a ludicrously improbable event. To not draw conclusions from this evidence would be simply mind boggling.

 

Alex Jones type of guesses? C'mon man, really. Have you got proof that the moon isn't made out of cheese?

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Actually there are moon rocks that are not cheese.

 

Did I miss a press release that said it was a hijacking?

 

Didn't think so.

 

So far, just a guess.

 

Did you bring those rocks back? Nope, all you've got is some one telling you that they are from the moon, that's not proof. The only fact you have is that some one is telling you something.

 

Mate, bottom line is that you can have strong confidence in some things without having absolute proof and knowing all the facts. I'm told that TV signals bounce off satellites in space. Do I have proof of that, do I know it for a fact to be true? No I don't, I have pictures on a box and people in good position telling me about satellites and shit. Is that enough inconclusive evidence for me to believe in satellites? Yep.

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I am not disputing what you are saying.

 

What I am saying is that they have refused to say it is a hijacking so far.

 

I am also saying that they really do not know what happened or who is responsible.

 

Until there is something way more concrete then a deliberate direction change, it all is just a guess.

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