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N.Korea torpedoed a S.Korean ship and 46 lives were lost


BlackHoodieKid

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From what I've seen reported all that's been done in response to this is S.Korea and it's allies going, "Erm..well...if this is done again, oh there'll be a proactive response."

 

Why on earth isn't something being done to go and kick the shit out of Kim Jong-il? Is it fear of nuclear holocaust? Or do we let him quite literally murder a few dozen human beings without punishment?

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From what I've seen reported all that's been done in response to this is S.Korea and it's allies going, "Erm..well...if this is done again, oh there'll be a proactive response."

 

Why on earth isn't something being done to go and kick the shit out of Kim Jong-il? Is it fear of nuclear holocaust? Or do we let him quite literally murder a few dozen human beings without punishment?

 

actually yes....they fear war. what they have done is a trade embargo with n.korea. the fear with that is....north korea has a history of lashing out so if south korea doesnt leave themselves a way way to resume diplomatic relations after north korea has had enough with the political pressure (embargo),

war will result.

 

i predict a nuclear test firing into space again to remind the world what the stakes are. South Korea has U.S. support but i dont think the U.S. public sees communism a big fucking deal anymore, nor do i think the U.S. government see any sort of interest in militarily protecting south korea if war happened. especially since the U.S. is dealing with a couple of other conflicts.

 

on another note it will be interesing to see how the U.S. reacts if U.S. forces stationed in s. korea get attacked.

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From what I've seen reported all that's been done in response to this is S.Korea and it's allies going, "Erm..well...if this is done again, oh there'll be a proactive response."

 

Why on earth isn't something being done to go and kick the shit out of Kim Jong-il? Is it fear of nuclear holocaust? Or do we let him quite literally murder a few dozen human beings without punishment?

 

Oh god... Americans..

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nor do i think the U.S. government see any sort of interest in militarily protecting south korea if war happened.

Clearly you're wrong here. The US has a huge number of troops stationed along the DMZ and is conducting joint naval exercises with the south. They're an important trading partner and we've supported them since the Korean war. It's not about communism any more, you're right, but there is absolutely no way we'd stand by and do nothing if the North invaded.

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Clearly you're wrong here. The US has a huge number of troops stationed along the DMZ and is conducting joint naval exercises with the south. They're an important trading partner and we've supported them since the Korean war. It's not about communism any more, you're right, but there is absolutely no way we'd stand by and do nothing if the North invaded.

 

I'll start with.....I may be wrong, but....

 

I don't feel there's any trade happening with Korea that's so important to our economic security like say OIL. In fact....I'd imagine our trade relations with china would be a larger risk to our economy if the u.s. got to deep into this fiasco seeing how china has always been north koreas communist big brother.

 

I know about the dmz....as a PACAF (USAF) troop in southern japan, we endured chem warfare games. During those games nobody talked bout possibly going to war with china....it was all in preperation to go to war with Korea cuz they're crazy. The USA has a limited amount of soldiers at the dmz. It's a 1 year short tour...all serious munitions, refueling aircraft, etc. Are kept in japan. We are there because nkorea has relatively recently developed nuclear weapons and we fear they're crazy enough to use them...we keep our forces there to keep the fight in their neck of the woods, not to protect trade with s. Korea.

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Oh man, how can you cover something that is rooted in but no longer based on the outcomes of WW2 in a matter of mins?

 

 

Sheeeeit.

 

 

 

Short answerr; DPRK has everyone over a barrel because they are a porcupine.

 

Over 12000 artillery pieces forward deployed manned and commanded by a military that is doctrinally educated.

 

Having a permanent predisposition of forward deployment denies ROK the space to build up its military threat in order to force a diplomatic solution. For an example, look t Iraq from 2002 to 2003. The US started with the rhetoric, created coalitions, shipped military equip and created contingencies over the span of 12 months (give or take) in increments in order to demonstrate its intent capability and commitment. If Baghdad din't pa=lay ball it was going to eat shit...., so it had better play ball. In other words I have you nuts in a vice, I place my hands on the lever and say "are you gonna talk?". I lean on the lever, "are you gonna talk?". I screw a little so you feel some discomfort, "Are you gonna talk?". I push in a little to let you know that if you don't talk I'm gonna pop your fucking kids out the side of your sack.

 

I let you know how serious I am by incrementally ratcheting up the pressure on you by way of military commitment. So, let me put it this way, DPRK already has ROK's balls in the vice, tightly screwed and blood blisters are starting to appear. If Seoul takes one wrong step all out war is a possibility in a matter of minutes. So a military build up is not only useless as a threat mechanism it is also dangerous for the security of the country. Keep in mind that Seoul and Incheon (ROKs biggest cites) are in artillery range of the DMZ.

 

Now, add another aspect to this; game theory.

 

When you bargain with some one you try and imagine what they will do and than create a strategy that dominates the opponent's choices/outcomes. To do that you have to know what they are thinking, their decision matrix and the possibility of common knowledge/rational thought. DPRK fucks this up by acting crazy. If one acts unpredictable and a little retarded then others will stand off because there is no way to predict what they might do. So therefore it is a rational strategy to be irrational....., or crazy like a fox.

 

One fist cocked, knife in the other hand and all crazy eyed. Aint no one going to fuck with you unless their knife is bigger....., hence nuclear ambiguity. Does DPRK have a nuke? Probably not but are you going to take that risk?

 

 

 

DPRK is the buffer zone between China and the West. DPRK and the six party talks are the lever Beijing uses to exact concessions, an arms race in north east Asia degrades Chinese defenses by zero sum, militarisation of Japan fucks with the US (WW2), collapse of DPRK sends 20m refugees in to Jilin/Liaoning which already has massive dependency on military deployment just to keep industry from collapsing, etc etc etc.

 

DPRK has everyone over a barrel and can blow as many fucking ROK and Japanese ships up as it wants and there is very fucking little anyone can do about it because they are strategically located and a forty million man liability. The US cannot do shit and that is why Wash. told Seoul to STFU within 5 hours of the ChoNan being offed otherwise they were on their own. Notice how Seoul slowed the investigation down but "leaks" kept on coming out to the point that by last Friday everyone in the world knew that they would blame Pyang but just didn't know what they would do about it (other than the fact that they had breifed Wash., Tokyo, Moscow and Beijing in an attempt to get favour over the veto holders in the UNSC by treating them as above everyone else).

 

 

 

So again, Pyang gonna sink your boat, gonna sink his boat gonna sink her boat...., just like they tried to kill the PM in Burma, blew up an ROK airliner, tried to suicide mission Seoul and many ohter things in the past that are public but you prob don't know about and WTF YOU OR YOUR ARMY GONNA DO ABOUT IT????!!!

 

 

 

 

 

Some one has a plan and it's a fucking good one. It's modern bit royal and draws a line of blood and fat.

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From what I've seen reported all that's been done in response to this is S.Korea and it's allies going, "Erm..well...if this is done again, oh there'll be a proactive response."

 

Why on earth isn't something being done to go and kick the shit out of Kim Jong-il? Is it fear of nuclear holocaust? Or do we let him quite literally murder a few dozen human beings without punishment?

 

I see you dropped out of school :rolleyes:

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who arms the DPRK? do they have WMD? if so who gave it to them? they are threatening nukes if i'm not mistaken?

 

seriously, geo-politically... what would be the implications of a continued conflict between North and South Korea?

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The Chinese are the main DPRK supplier. The USSR were quite a bit too, before they fell. I believe Russia does supply weapons still, but not as much. In terms of implications....I'm sure if it goes on for a while, one of our presidents may decide to intervene and join in the conflict too. But I doubt North Korea will launch any nukes, unless we dismantle all of ours (which I doubt).

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North and South Korea are still at war. What else are you going to do during wartime...

 

Wartime huh?

 

You've heard of the Armistice treaty, Sunshine policy, Keasong, Keumgang, USD1.68bn in trade, etc. etc., right?

 

 

 

 

I'm hoping that I missed the sarcasm and you weren't properly serious with that.

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I agree but the fear isn't that either side is suicidal because they are not. As I said in my rant above the problem is that they are forward deployed with a large destructive force zeroed on Seoul. Buy the time Seoul can respond there will already have been around 30,000+ shells hit Seoul, that's fucking huge and unacceptable.

 

In between KJI and those artillery pieces (that's not even considering their missile forces) is a whole chain of command and army that most of the world knows very little about other than they have been blasted with propaganda and psychological training from birth. That makes them an unknown element for SKor planners meaning that there is very little room for maneuver because you do not know how they will react.

 

All it takes is one miscommunication, one ill-disciplined or hot headed middle ranking commander, etc. and the whole place can spiral out of control real quick. The heavy forward deployment and their target means that as soon as one arty round is fired by NKor both the SKors and the US have to consider the worst and hit with full force to minimise the damage. Likewise with NKor, if they think for one second that their enemy is about to carpet bomb their gun positions they have to act with full force immediately before they lose the strategic advantage.

 

So, no. DPRK and KJI are not crazy they are very rational and that has made them even more dangerous. And yes they did leave the armistice but that means jack just the same as them technically remaining at war since 1953. The South is DPRKs second largest trading partner after China, they have joint industrial ventures at Keasong, they have a joint resort facility and Keumgang, the sunshine policy has been reuniting families split since the war, etc. etc. So yeah, there are technicalities and these items haven't been too stable recently, however you do not have a relationship like that with another country you are "at war" with.

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before reading any other replies i'm gonna just say this.

China should probably step in and tell N Korea to chill the fuck out.

I mean. N. Korea in they backyard causing problems

China need to tell N.Korea.... Look you little fucking assholes you

got bombs? well we do too. Get right or catch the biz

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Maybe the US will push the situation to crisis level. That way China can come in, stabilise the country and "hold it for the UN" for a few years and deny another suxxession. China gets to put in a govt that doesn't cause instability and arms races in the region, keeps friendly with ROK, removes a thorn in the side of the United States and undermines Japans overt reasons for (re)militarisation.

 

Win/win for the two major powers, not at all beyond comprehension.

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Apparently, China weren't to welcoming to Korean Kim when he arrived there today, they think he is unstable and not sure what he is doing, so while they are still backers they don't appear 100% behind him.

 

Also, America is tied in a treaty with South Korea to defend them if attacked.

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Just a bad scenario. Being 6K miles away from

either Korea I dont much agree that US should

interfere but we have made commitments to

the South. Up to this point and for good reason

South Korea has (& for good reason) kept its

cool so to speak. Even tho America got its back

America is spread pretty thin at the moment.

The North fucked around and pissed off the South

bad.

This is why i think China needs to man the fuck

up. N.Korea is causing problems in the neighborhood.

Its not Americas neighborhood. Im sure China doesn't

want more American armed force influence in their

regional affairs.

 

More i think about it the more i seem to think China

has everything to gain by realigning their position in regards

to Korea. They aren't as ideologically similar to the north

as they used to be. China is all about Capitalism nowadays.

 

Really tho i dont kno shit. Just procrastinating on my

homework. carry on

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abcs, you have to remember that the Pacific is the US front door step and DPRK is on its way to make nukes and ICBMs that reach your country. You have allies in the region (Japan, ROK, Thailand, Philippines, Australia..., all with formal alliances) and you tell ROK that it is not allowed to make missiles over a certain range in exchange for protection. The deal is that you don't want an arms race in this region because you have 3 big players involved; China, ROK and Japan. If you let these guys have an arms race with each other whoever comes out on top in the end is going to do so because they have some serious capabilities. These will be capabilities that might rival that of the US and who's to say that they won't start looking at your side of the pond with hungary eyes. Happened only one generation ago, not hard for it to happen again.

 

So much better for the US to say to Japan, ROK, etc., "Don't worry about making big missiles and shit, just buy the basics off us and we'll cover you with our nuclear umbrella and base a bunch of troops on one of your islands. No one will fuck with you then and you can instead direct your resources in to building up a strong economy. And to help you do that, here's open access to our market/economy. All we ask in return is that you don't go crazy building a war machine and that you follow our lead in forming foreign policy".

 

That strategy helped with the Cold War for you guys, I'd say it's a pretty good one and worth continuing.

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