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North Korea Conflict


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Ehh screw it. Not going to class.. Few things..

 

This was released some years ago by amateur spies using Google earth. If you don't have Google earth download it, and then download the File. Very Cool.

 

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-uncovered-google-earth/

 

And it seems as though i was correct about his eldest son. kind of.. He lives in Macau. But travels to and from the DPRK.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-nam

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Sorry dude, but....

 

Dammit. I didn't realize this thread was in here.

 

Anyways, a couple of different areas to touch upon here.

 

 

 

I'm thinking that this mystery kid who is 26 (who only has one picture circulating in the media) will be much more promising than his father. Sources say that he was educated in Switzerland under a false name for a brief part of his life. Also, [He was educated in Bern, it's no secret nor denied by anyone, there are class photos of him with his class all over the web. I personally know a guy who used to tease him.] for whatever reason Kim Jong Il has really treated his children much differently than he was treated himself as a boy. These kids HAVE been outside the country and have seen what the world is outside of DPRK. I believe off the top of my head he has three boys and several girls. (and if my memory serves me correctly one of the boys may of defected to the south? or something like that? could be totally wrong on that). Whether this has any effect on his Kim Jong Suns reputable overwhelmingly "in your face" personality is beyond me. I guess Kim Jong Sun is just like his father too.. He weighs over 200 lbs, eats like a savage, and already has diabetes. [Jong-un's supporters apparently tried to assassinate Jong-nam (the eldest who hangs out in Macau and was caught trying to enter Japan on a false passport to go to Disney) in the last two weeks without the knowledge of Jing-il. Jong-nam was kept safe by the Chinese security services who he has become relatively close with. Analyse that dynamic and look into the near to mid-future and see what falls loosely into place... ]

 

To TTboys reponse..

 

Yes, war with DPRK would be a war like we've never seen before [what about the war in 1950-1953? DPRK was backed and funded and also heavily supplemented by both China and Russia against the US, ROK, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Straight after WW2 when there were nuclear weapons and a MASSIVE glut of conventional weapons in the region.]. I say this because the DPRK is HEAVILY HEAVILY equipped with Military power. They have a standing army of just over 1.2 million and another 300k or so on reserve. Being in DPRKs position currently has some ups and downs. AS westerners we see them as an impoverished country that could colllapse at any time, but the reality of it all is that they sink ALL their resources into their military and military personnel. this is why the average citizen can't obtain beef for protein to stay healthy, because it is all going to the army to feed them and keep them strong. [Actually, it is reported by a number of defectors that a lot of the army is under-supplied, under-equipped and under-trained. That then implies that they will also be less than motivated when it comes to battle. There is also apparently a number of generals that have been discussing a coup for years. However it apparently has never made it past drunken gatherings in basements.]

 

War with the DPRK would be a disaster. One thing that the DPRK has over other super powers such as China and Russia [China and Russia are super powers??!!] is political will [China and Russia don't have political will??!! I suggest you go back and read WW2 history of both these countries. While you're at it, check out Russia's political will in Chechnya.].. They would be more than happy to see the US leveled by Nukes, as it would have absolutely no affect on the DPRK [it would have a massive effect on the whole world, including DPRK. The whole world would be thrown in to chaos and reality would alter, totally. Forgetting that obvious point, it would destroy one of China's largest export markets and 80% of Chinese forex funds, that would bankrupt China and then DPRK would lose their only ally/sponsor]. China and Russia couldn't do that for well known economic and social reasons. Of course this would never happen ultimately because of once again, well known reasons. War with them probably wont happen anytime soon and if it does, it will be a joint SK/US invasion of the North [What about Japan? Anyway, there would be no invasion, they have 1.2 million well funded and trained troops, hometown advantage and political will, remember? Why would you invade that when you can attack it from a distance instead? That's why the US, ROK and Japan have spent so much on Navy, Air Force and Missiles, so they don't have to commit troops. Destroy command, coms and counter measures and wait for the masses to revolt. Either way, not going to happen for all the reasons I've previously stated.] China and Russia have trade agreements with them [No they don't. China has no actual agreements, they just supply them with what they can afford/need so they don't collapse. Total trade between the two countries is somewhere within the vicinity of USD3bn..., fuck all. Russia only has a slight fraction of that. Put it this way, Russia has more trade with Botswana than they do the DPRK. NorKor can't pay for anything!] but no military obligations or ties to us OR them. They would most likely not get involved. [Of course China would get involved, DPRK is their buffer zone and one of the greatest levers they have in regards to strategic relations with the US. You think China wants a US supported/controlled country right on their border or even a new Marshal Plan right next door?! China would use very strong measures of deterrence and assess the situation from there. If the US only attacked to destroy the DPRK's nuclear assets, China would sit it out. IF US destroyed the leadership China would then come in afterwards, support the country and put its own preferred leadership in. If the US occupied, then there'd be trouble.]

 

Although the North is an extremely impoverished nation, they are extremely well armed and would be a tough battle on their soil. As we'd probably guess it would a be a home court situation for them. If that were the case it would be weird. DPRK is the most tunneled nation in the world. For several reasons this is the case but mostly to stay under the radar (no pun intended) from U.S. and SK spy planes hovering over head 24hrs a day 7 days a week [spy planes don't go over DPRK territory, the remaining U2's fly at very high altitudes along the 38th parallel and international waters and surveil from there. The rest is done by satellites. Maybe the Global Hawks also play a role these days but they are still new to service]. They have an entire Hard-Wired communications network hundreds of feet below the surface that is virtually untapable and used by the Military. This country has been dedicating every day since the 60's for a war to happen. Dont think just because their resources are drab, that they havent found ways to manage for themselves.. Nearly every weapon and military craft is made in north korea (along with every other product in the country). This keeps an extremely low cost on munitions and technology. [And also means that much of it is low quality and untested]

 

Shit i just realized im going to be late to class..

 

Will be back later for more rant and discussion..

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what would we do without you christo?

 

ps Sorry this is the first time i got back on 12oz in ages but Beijing was fucking awesome, the best city in China by far and possibly my favourite ive been to in the world.

Wow, I kinda thought Beijing sucked.

Shanghai was far cooler!

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Yeah I'm no fan either. Wuhan and Qingdao are the best I've been to on the mainland and HK is just globally cool.

 

Yeah, sorry I didn't see your PM until it was too late, pity we didn't meet up for a Yanjing or two! Cool that you got to try Taiyro (or however it's spelt), it's definitely the best tepinyaki restaurant I've been to. I assume you also hit up Propaganda out in Wudaokou (uni district), biggest fucking meat market this side of the meat markets!

 

Anyway, back to DPRK.

 

The Us is currently tracking a ship off the coast of China waiting for them to port so they can search it. Will be the first cab off the ranks since the UN passed its resolution a week ago.

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Sorry Christo if i made you mad for any reason. You seem somewhat upset givin the red text and all.

 

All that info was based on what Ive read over the past few years and in the context of "IMO".. I realize you know much more than I about the situation due to whatever reason but dont want an argument here. Would actually like to know more.

 

regards

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Sorry Christo if i made you mad for any reason. You seem somewhat upset givin the red text and all.

 

All that info was based on what Ive read over the past few years and in the context of "IMO".. I realize you know much more than I about the situation due to whatever reason but dont want an argument here. Would actually like to know more.

 

regards

 

No dude, sorry, I didn't mean to come across as mad or anything. Just hooking in to the subject with great gusto! Red text was just so it could be seen.

 

They won't board the ships with force because they don't want to give DPRK any excuse to use force or claim that it has been a victim of US force. Also, better to have another country board the ship and face risks than your own. Also makes the US look like a multilateral player rather than a cowboy doing whatever it wants.

 

Sorry dude, didn't mean to be an arsehole in that reply, will check myself if that's the way I came across.

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Your top line a little misleading. Hawaii from DPRK, this far |--------------------------------------|

Range of biggest banger in DPRK , this far |----------------------|

 

 

They have only this path to choose due to third and second stage splash down restrictions all based on the region from which they fire it from, which seems to be determined by the added ability to track as close as possible during launch/1st faze.

 

 

They may need these rockets for real sooner than we are calculating. This may actually be more testing than politics. They may have a much smaller window to create a credible deterrence than we have been giving them. This does not mean that they will have that capability in a short time, this just means that they want it badder now than they did before. Change may be only a very few years away, what ever that change will be.

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Wow, I kinda thought Beijing sucked.

Shanghai was far cooler!

 

serial? I didnt like shanghai at all, just a megacity of highrises with a crappy touristy city centre and not much else, having said that i was only there for about a week so im sure i missed out on a lot. As for HK I am not a fan of big commercial areas so although i had a blast while i was there and there is a lot of cool stuff in the place, kowloon especially, I didnt particularly like the city itself. Beijing seemd far mre vibrant and diverse than the other cities I went to, so many cool districts outside of the city centre area.

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Yeah, I'll give you that, Beijing is huge and sprawling with a huge amount of little districts and pokey places that are really different than the others. The Hutongs are pretty cool in places like Nanloguxiang (the alley way street near houhai that has all the bars and cafes on it) and the hutongs around houhai and Qianmen are really cool. However, living here does get a little boring after a while if you aren't focused on the sociological and developmental aspects of life. I'd love to have a beach or a sweet river/stream to be able to hang out at without the intrusiveness of another 17 million people trying to use the spot at the same time (spitting and smoking...).

 

Was it hazy when you were here? I can't remember.

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hahaha yeah the spitting all over the place is a bit disgusting. It was so hazy one of the days that the sun was just an orange blur but I got a couple of good days too. The freaky thing is that you cant see a single light in the sky at night, stars would just be a myth to someone who has never left Beijing.

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The whole NK and the 'allies' battle will never happen.

 

It would be completely foolish of Kim-Jung-Il to invade or attack SK. NK has no valid reason to do anything to SK even though the history between them is monumental there is still no earthly reason for it to happen.

 

Now me personally I'm a school leaver at 15, have no qualifications on paper but still i seem to be able to keep up with modern affairs and in my eyes (17yrs now) nothing at all will come of it... If NK attack or invade SK, then America will step in, if America steps in, Britain will be sure to follow, followed by Holland ect. Now if this was to happen, our (British) Economy would also fall apart (more so than what it already is), relying on alot of import from China and so does the majority of Europe.

 

In the end run nothing will come of it, if it does ill be sure to shove a trout up my arse and walk down the street claiming the apocalypse is nigh.

 

Thats really my take on the whole NK, Sk thing.

 

Kim-Jung-Il is all talk and no action, typical school yard bully.

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Well it would be the same sort of thing as the gulf, iraq ect.

 

What ever America does Britain follows because our government are too fucking gutless to turn round and say no... or tighten our immigration policy lol. Look at how Iraq started... the yanks wanted to go in and look for WMD's so Blair decided to fucking brown nose Bush even more and said we will follow.

 

That is what will happen if America want to go into Nk or Sk to help defend.

 

If you don't think that will happen if America goes in as a bully as usual then you are really nieve and narrow minded... open your eyes... Britain follow AMERICA !

Were he needy little kid that desperately wants to hang out with the cool folk and the big guy but never, ever will be the cool guy.

 

Get what I'm saying ?

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Well the point he was trying to make was that a war on America would be seen much as war on the west.

 

Yes Britain is not Japan, SK, Russian Fed, or China but much of the population see that nearly all of the West, the 6 party nations, and most economically stable (generally speaking) countries are not happy with and have never been happy with the actions taken by Kim Jung Il and his elite.

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No, sorry, I don't.

 

 

How? DPRK has no strategic assets such as energy deposits like Iraq does. DPRK is not strategically positioned as Iraq was (next to Iran, in the middle east), DPRK ICBMs don't threaten europe like Iran's potentially could. As a matter of fact, I can't see any similarities between DPRK and Iraq!

[/color]

 

What ever America does Britain follows Really? GB was in the 1950-53 Korean war? GB was in Vietnam? GB was in Haiti? GB was in Nicaragua? GB was in Somalia? GB sent ships to the Taiwan Straits in 1996? etc. etc. because our government are too fucking gutless to turn round and say no... or tighten our immigration policy You have a lot of North Koreans in the UK, do you? lol. Look at how Iraq started... the yanks wanted to go in and look for WMD's so Blair decided to fucking brown nose Bush even more and said we will follow. Bush has gone from the US and Blair has gone from the UK.

 

That is what will happen if America want to go into Nk or Sk to help defend.

 

If you don't think that will happen if America goes in as a bully as usual then you are really nieve and narrow minded... open your eyes... Britain follow AMERICA !

Were he needy little kid that desperately wants to hang out with the cool folk and the big guy but never, ever will be the cool guy. GB never ever will be that cool guy huh? Last time I read a history book Great Britain had a massive empire that stretched around the world through India, Singapore, Australia, etc. and was a global power well before the US was even a federated nation.

 

Get what I'm saying ?

 

BTW, it's spelt "naive"...., get what I'm saying?

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Well the point he was trying to make was that a war on America would be seen much as war on the west.

 

Yes Britain is not Japan, SK, Russian Fed, or China but much of the population see that nearly all of the West, the 6 party nations, and most economically stable (generally speaking) countries are not happy with and have never been happy with the actions taken by Kim Jung Il and his elite.

 

The war wouldn't be on the US, the war would be "on" DPRK, very different situation. Also, not liking the way a country conducts itself does not equal spending billions and invading/attacking another country. No one is going to invade/attack Sudan, Zimbabwe, Myanmar/Burma, Syria, ....ok, maybe an attack on Syria is quite possible, but that's because it is strategically important, DPRK is not strategically important in the least. It is choked by ROK, Japan and China and has no resources to offer whatsoever..., shit, these people don't even have land that supports crops!

 

There is no reason for GB to get involved in a job that the US could do on their own but would have the assistance of ROK and Japan even if hell froze over and they did invade the north.

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And we arent talking about about strategic location here. We are talking about the threat of nuclear weapons. I understand the country as a whole has no redeeming value at all. I read.. i understand.

 

And before you get into it.. im using "a threat of nuclear weapons" very loosely here

 

The U.S. is not looking for resources or some type of investment, they are simply trying to sideline a politically charged dictator/family that doesnt seem to be going away anytime soon..

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And we arent talking about about strategic location here. We are talking about the threat of nuclear weapons. I understand the country as a whole has no redeeming value at all. I read.. i understand.

 

And before you get into it.. im using "a threat of nuclear weapons" very loosely here

 

The U.S. is not looking for resources or some type of investment, they are simply trying to sideline a politically charged dictator/family that doesnt seem to be going away anytime soon..

 

Ok, sure. But I am talking about UK getting involved right now and the Taepodong-2 hasn't even successfully separated its third phase yet. So not only are they void a weaponised nuke (as far as we know) but they also don't have a rocket capable of hitting the UK, so it aint the UK's problem. The Taepodong can only theoretically hit Hawaii, it's a long way off hitting the continental US as yet as well. the biggest threat is a missile hitting US bases in ROK or Japan and they can do that with the Nodongs and and Hwasong 7 and even 6s.

 

IT is already known that DPRK has a large amount of chemical and possibly biological weapons that they could launch at ROK and JAPAN where around 55 000+ US soldiers are. there is still no talk of invasion.

 

There is still a huge amount of room for other methods aside from military force that can be used. I would assume that the US hopes China would do something itself before they allowed DPRK to have weaponised nukes. Ther is absolutely no urgency whatsoever in dealing with DPRK now. KJI is going to be dead in less than a decade and KJU is an unknown quantity. There is heaps of time and heaps of options here, no one will invade or attack. No one wants to....., least of all the UK!

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