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life After the Oil Crash


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I've decided which island I'm going to sail on and take over. That's when global waring makes society collpase' date=' NOT the oil crash[/quote']

Did you stop to think that when 'Global warming makes society collapse' your nice little Island will probably be several meters underwater?

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Ok so here is what im thinking so far, Oil production at some stage will be priced out of the average consumers reach. I also think that alternative sources of energy wont ever be as cheap by comparison.

So although there may be no 'oil crash' and the doom and gloom that this site predicts. I think this is definatly something to be aware of. I plan to continue reading as much as possible about this issue.

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CRAP CRAP CRAP

The dude's a lawyer, not some expert on gas. He's missed too many details to be considered truth, so everyone who's planning for the apocalypse can chill the fuck out.

 

Here's what I've got to support that this dude is a tard:

 

Hybrid technology is already extending the mpg of cars to over 100 miles. I can give you a list of 30 companies producing all electric cars that will run incredibly fast and at over a relative 80 miles per gallon, and expect to drop the price of such a car to 40k in the next couple years.

 

-Geothermal energy on the big island of hawaii accounts for 25% of all energy consumtion. The plant is so small that you can't even find it above ground.

 

-Jet engines will run on anything that burns. Not exclusive to gas or any fuel mixture which requires fossil fuels.

 

-Oranges can be used to replace fossil fuels in the production of plastic.

 

-Food may reach a price four times that of now? DONT EAT OUT.

 

-Population's always been a problem. Don't have kids, someone already had one for you. Adopt.

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Have any of you ever thought about what oil was before it became the chronic to feed our cars/ships/aeroplanes?

 

Once upon a time, oil as slippin' and slidin' underneath the tectonic plates like a pair of glad shoes. Then we came along and sucked it dry like a coke from a soda fountain. Now what? Now what? What happens to everything above the oil you've removed it? What happens to a dinner setting once you've removed the tablecloth?

 

The question about oil which never receives any attention is What purpose did oil serve before it became the heir apparent to coal? What happened to earth's perma-lubejob? You want to know what happened? It got guzzled up, and now what?

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i'm just saying, i have the material to back up what i say.

anyone who questions me should step back a few paces

and read.

 

 

and to godforbid: i'll sum it up. we have more oil than we know what to do with.

up in the trillions of barrels in reserves in the u.s.

the oil company documents that i posted clearly state that there is no shortage.

the one you read about here is a hoax set up by the oil companies to reap mad

profits.

 

 

 

casek, I find it interesting that you're so blazingly against this concept without throwing out the actual proof of your convictions. Sorry, pie charts don't cut it. You seem to be willing to grasp onto theories that are just as extreme. Please, tell us how you know we are in such an abundance of oil. Explain to us how this can be so and yet we are paying three times the amount for gas than we were 5 years ago.

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casek' date=' I find it interesting that you're so blazingly against this concept without throwing out the actual proof of your convictions. Sorry, pie charts don't cut it. You seem to be willing to grasp onto theories that are just as extreme. Please, tell us how you know we are in such an abundance of oil. Explain to us how this can be so and yet we are paying three times the amount for gas than we were 5 years ago.[/quote']

http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/brochures/gasolinepricesprimer/eia1_2005primerM.html

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rand corporation study

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.pdf

 

 

dept og energy report

http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reser...e_Program.html

 

 

http://energy.senate.gov/public/inde...4&IsTextOnly=1

 

Study reveals huge U.S. oil-shale field

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ilstudy01.html

 

 

http://www.aspencore.org/images/pdf/OilShale.pdf

 

http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/energy/fs/

see "internal chevron memo"

 

Kingdom Oil Reserves May Go Up by 200 Billion Barrels, Naimi Says

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=1&sect...d=7&m=4&y=2005

 

Saudi Oil Is Secure and Plentiful, Say Officials

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&sect...=29&m=4&y=2004

 

Wall Street Journal.

Oil, Oil, Everywhere . . .

January 27, 2005

http://www.manhattan-institute.org/h...sj-oil_oil.htm

 

Opec to increase oil production

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4264642.stm

 

more internal documents

http://www.wirefiles.com/show.php/2999_5103.pdf

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Read it, It basicly explains there are other costs that accumulate and fluctuate between the oil production and the consumer. I would have thought that was obvious to most people.

What it went on to say is there are certain events , notably hurricane Katrina that contributed to the higher costs. Sure its a US site but the price of oil has risen significantly on a global level, while Hurricane Katrina and the war on Iraq would make some impact , It seems that there is more to the picture.

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http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=85922&d=27&m=7&y=2006

 

The problem is not a shortage of oil. The problem is the fear of oil supply disruption due to geopolitical factors,” he said. He said oil could hit $80 “if the situation in the Middle East remains the same.” Oil prices are currently around $74.

 

Ok sure, we have established there is plenty of oil about, but the afordability of that oil is whats in question. If oil is more expencive to produce, therefore more expencive to consume, will this effect demand and continue to raise prices?

 

On the Shale Oil note, there is enough info for me to beleive that it is only worth while for big oil to drill once prices are higher again anyway. This again doesnt sound promising.

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http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=85922&d=27&m=7&y=2006

 

 

 

Ok sure, we have established there is plenty of oil about, but the afordability of that oil is whats in question. If oil is more expencive to produce, therefore more expencive to consume, will this effect demand and continue to raise prices?

 

On the Shale Oil note, there is enough info for me to beleive that it is only worth while for big oil to drill once prices are higher again anyway. This again doesnt sound promising.

internal chevron oil documents about the scheme to raise oil prices.

http://www.wirefiles.com/show.php/2999_5103.pdf

 

 

post it, yet you still bring up katrina. the major oil comapnies bought out a ton of

refineries just to shut them down. why? to raise the fucking oil prices.

 

now they complain (for the media) "oooh! we haven't got enough refineries since the ones in nola were destroyed by big bad katrina!"

 

bullshit! you ahven't got enough refineries by fucking design! the price is going up because they want it to, not because it's the way things go. not because "we're due for a price hike". they are laughing at you. while they sit in their $80 million yachts, eating their fucking dolphin based tuna, raping indonesian kids with baseball bats, they are laughing at you.

 

i'm telling you, it's bullshit.

 

Operation Iraqi Liberation. OIL. that's the first name of the 2003 invasion.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/03/20030324-4.html

 

it's not a mistake. and it's not to turn up the pumps. it's to shut them down.

lower production, you get more profit. why? because you can charge $80 a barrel.

 

 

wake up! wake the fuck up and realize that we are all being duped.

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http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=85922&d=27&m=7&y=2006

 

 

 

Ok sure, we have established there is plenty of oil about, but the afordability of that oil is whats in question. If oil is more expencive to produce, therefore more expencive to consume, will this effect demand and continue to raise prices?

 

On the Shale Oil note, there is enough info for me to beleive that it is only worth while for big oil to drill once prices are higher again anyway. This again doesnt sound promising.

 

there's more oil than just shale oil. there's some sweet crude out there. russia, for example. huge oil reserves. alaska. i dunno, though. fucking up some ecological systems....we depend on some of that shit to be around. there are ways to get this shit, and it is plentiful.

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casek-

i agree with you that shutting down refineries is an attempt by the oil companies to raise revenue. but i've done some math, let's see what happens.

 

Exxon mobil just posted the second highest quarter in the history of privately held american corporations- $10.5 billion, second to their 4th quarter 2005 $10.7 billion. this quarter averages out to about $1,600 a second. there are about 168,000 gas stations in the US, and lets say about 1/4 of them are either exxon or mobil (i don't know how reasonable this assumption is, but it seems ok. if anyone is motivated enough to look it up, we can recalibrate these numbers). that means exxon has about 42,000 gas stations in the US. given the quarter's earnings, each gas station, assuming that profits are generated entirely from fuel sales, is gripping 3.8 cents per second in profit. this works out to $3,283 in profit daily assuming each station is run 24 hrs.

 

that chart shows us that refining costs and profits account for about 19% o what we pay at the pump. let's assume, inccorectly, that the entire $3,283 per station per day is entirely profit. that means that $16,415 of gas is pumped. at an average price of, let's say 3.10/gal, for a grand total of around 5,300 gallons per station per day. that means the profit per gallon is about 60 cents. if you put ten gallons in the tank thats a $6 profit for the oil companies. let's say you get 25 miles per gallon. that means you are going 250 miles and the gas co. is only getting $6 off of you. this soes not seem that unreasonable to me. there are plenty of businesses that profit more than $6 dollars on a $31 purchase. considering that $6 includes refining cost, the total is even less. considering my profits estimate per station may include other sales, i.e. of food e.t.c., the number might be even lower.

 

on the macro level, $10.5 billion last quarter of profits mean that $50 billion worth of gas was consumed by patrons of exxon mobil alone. it is a huge volume, not so much a huge margin that allow such huge profits. profits were 1.72 per share, and i can list a slew of other companies that turn a larger per share profit.

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