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Study: Short Iraq War Would Cost World $1 Trillion

Discussion in 'Channel Zero' started by grittylifer, Feb 20, 2003.

  1. grittylifer

    grittylifer Banned

    Joined: Nov 14, 2002 Messages: 0 Likes Received: 0
    Study: Short Iraq War Would Cost World $1 Trillion
    Thu Feb 20, 7:25 AM ET Add Top Stories - Reuters to My Yahoo!

    CANBERRA (Reuters) - A short war with Iraq could cost the world one percent of its economic output over the next few years and more than $1 trillion by 2010, Australian researchers said in a report Thursday.

    A long war could more than triple the costs, they said.

    The compounding effects of rising oil prices, extra budget spending and economic uncertainty could cut $173 billion from the world economy in 2003 alone, said the researchers, Reserve Bank of Australia board member Warwick McKibbin and Center for International Economics executive director Andrew Stoeckel.

    Basing their projections on two scenarios -- a short war with a year or two of rebuilding or a long war lasting five years with five years of rebuilding -- the researchers said conflict would sideswipe private investment and probably push equity prices even lower.

    "The conclusion is that even a short war will have a significant and noticeable impact on the world economy, but on current projections of world growth would not lead to recession," they said.

    "Even a short war could cost the world one percent of GDP per year over the next few years."

    While the United States was expected to bear the brunt of the war costs, Britain, Australia and several European countries would have to boost budget spending and Japan would probably be a large contributor to the rebuilding phase, the report said.

    "Iraq and some other Middle Eastern countries are assumed to spend considerably on defense, represented by an increase in defense spending by OPEC," it added.

    Oil prices were projected to initially rise 90 percent above a baseline of $25 per barrel. Under a short-war scenario, the price spike would quickly dissipate and the world oil price would fall below $25 after the war was over, the report said.

    It warned that the investors' uncertainty would compound the rise in oil prices, even in a short-war case.

    "Altogether, there could be a drop of investment in the United States of over eight percent below baseline in 2003 and 2004. The fall is less for Japan and Europe, given the assumptions for their contribution to a war and rebuilding."
  2. ArtvandaL

    ArtvandaL Guest

  3. -Rage-

    -Rage- 12oz Loyalist

    Joined: Apr 12, 2001 Messages: 11,276 Likes Received: 71
  4. killtheradio

    killtheradio Member

    Joined: Dec 20, 2002 Messages: 375 Likes Received: 1
    we shouldnt be tryin to have any that war nonsense.. i know i wont fire for our pile of shit country... here we come canada
  5. ~DeNtOnE~

    ~DeNtOnE~ Senior Member

    Joined: May 6, 2002 Messages: 1,072 Likes Received: 0
  6. TEE_rase_war

    TEE_rase_war Senior Member

    Joined: Dec 6, 2001 Messages: 1,717 Likes Received: 1
    it will cost more than that
  7. ElectricitySucks

    ElectricitySucks Veteran Member

    Joined: Jul 13, 2001 Messages: 6,395 Likes Received: 24
    this world is dumb. were all in this world together. if it wasnt for power, there would be absolutly no problem. theres more to that but id go on and on for days. blabhalbhalbah.
  8. bufme1

    bufme1 Senior Member

    Joined: Nov 21, 2001 Messages: 2,340 Likes Received: 2


  9. Kr430n5_666

    Kr430n5_666 Banned

    Joined: Oct 6, 2004 Messages: 19,229 Likes Received: 30
    Hey. Put the AC/DC down for a second...